1. SWFDP Regional Frameworks and their Impact on Developing and Least Developing Countries
Eugene Poolman
Chief Forecasting: Disaster Risk Reduction
RSMC Pretoria
South African Weather Service
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2. Overview of Presentation
Development of Regional Early Warning Systems
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project Regional Framework
Impact on Developing Countries and LDCs
Looking Forward
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3. development of regional Early Warning Systems
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4. of all Natural Disasters were Weather related
In Southern Africa
95%
of all Natural Disasters were Weather related
The expected increase in severe weather due to climate change and social factors highlights the need for the development of Regional EWS covering all timescales
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5. Timescale of the Development of
Regional EWS
RCOF: Consolidated seasonal climate forecasts in September on the likelihood of above / below normal rain for the coming summer season over region
6 months
Sub-seasonal
SWFDP: Enhancing capacity in NMSs to issue severe weather warnings for the next days
Days
FFGS: Developing technology for flash flood warnings
Few Hours
Mid 2000 and on
Mid-2000 and on
Late 1990’s
???
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6. SWFDP – Regional frameworks
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7. Principle Aim of SWFDP
SWFDP aims to address the challenges of short- to medium-range EWS
Specifically designed to aid developing and LDCs to address the technology and services gap between major weather centers and weather centers of developing and least developing countries
Main mechanism of SWFDP is the “Cascading forecasting process” from global center to regional center to NMSs
SWFDP is essentially a framework for collaboration specifically focused on the regions
The basic SWFDP system has to be contained within a manageable mandate, focussing on 2-3 hazards, to enable progress monitoring
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8. SWFDP Sub-Projects
Current status of SWFDPs around the world – 3 active, 2 under development
Southern Africa
Southern Africa (5 countries involved)
Southern Africa expansion (16 countries involved)
RMSC Pretoria, South Africa
2. South Pacific islands
Pilot project
Full demonstration 2011
RSMC Wellington
3. Eastern Africa
Pilot Phase
RSMC Nairobi
4. Under development –
Southeastern Asia and Bay of Bengal
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9. Regional Frameworks
Focus is on developing regions that share broadly the same hazards and impacts, and the same regional economic body
In many cases NMSs are within LDCs and SIDS that have minimal resources, sometimes only 3 or 4 forecasters, and small budgets
These few forecasters are responsible for all forecasting activities, including aviation, marine, severe weather – including basic public forecasting that is automated in large centres
In many countries disaster management structures are not functioning properly or even non-existing
National issues and differences, including cultural differences, must be taken into account
But, they are dedicated that try their best with what they have
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10. Regional frameworks (continued)
A regional centre (RSMC) is an essential component to the success of SWFDP activities
A Regional Project Implementation Plan is developed at a regional workshop involving all countries and centres, and tuned to the local conditions and needs
Annual training is essential, building on both NWP and EPS skills, as well as skills on disaster management coordination and media relations. Methodology depends on what is practical
In SWFDP-SA and SWFDP-EA this has been based on 2-week training sessions annually
In SWFDP-SP roving training were done where trainers visit individual countries
Ideal would be a combination of both, plus web-based training
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11. Inter-programme Coordination and Collaboration
Collaboration between WMO programmes is essential from Phase 1, particularly GDPFS, PWS, TCP, Satellite programme, WWRP with TIGGE
In later phases when the project matured, synergy with other relevant activities within WMO becomes crucial, such as the FFGS and Agromet activities to utilize the coordination framework for other activities
This differs between regions, based on the needs of the regions
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12. Example: Southern Africa SWFDP
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13. SWFDP Concept of Cascading of Information
Global NWP centres
SWFDP Concept of Cascading of Information
Regional centre
Disaster Management Centres
16 National Meteorological Centres
Media
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14. Implementation and Website
SWFDP-SA was the first project testing the concept with 5 countries (Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe)
Then followed a roll-out to all 16 countries, 8 are LDCs
In the Regional Implementation Plan agreed on thresholds for 2 major hazards: heavy rain and strong winds
The first activity in the Implementation Plan, is the development of a RSMC website in such a way that it takes the lowest bandwidth in the region into account - the main method of communication
Early on it was realized that “forecasting techniques has improved, but nowcasting is lacking” (Zimbabwe)
Hence the development of satellite nowcasting products in the absence of a sustainable regional radar network
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15. Training Two-week training was done annually:
Week 1: Forecaster per country trained on using NWP and EPS products, as well as satellite nowcasting, verification etc in later years.
Week 2: Forecasters plus a disaster manager per country trained on early warning systems, collaboration, media relations, public surveys (template), and even a session on “conveying uncertainty to users” in later years
Our experience: training needs to be repeated annually - in Nov 2012 we could see the development in forecasters when some of the older hands started to show new guys how to use the products on the webpage
A repeated effort is needed to continuously develop the different countries
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16. Examples of Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria
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17. SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMCs
RSMC analyse forecast information
Prepares guidance every day for the next 5 days
RSMC also provide products of its own NWP – UM SA12, and satellite products
Products from RSMC La Reunion (TC centre) 10 km model also provided
All products and Guidance info made available through webpage to NMCs – no complex system implemented
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18. Warnings from National Meteorological Services
Each NMS evaluate model products supported by RSMC guidance products
Issue warnings if needed against their own in-country criteria for severe weather
Provide disaster management with up to 5 days lead-time of expected major hazards
Coordinate with media for end-user dissemination
Nothing is imposed, all based on in-country thresholds and practices
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19. Other Arrangements
The process is monitored and controlled by a Regional Sub-project Management Team (RSMT) consisting of senior operational forecasters of each country and producing centres
Countries provided quarterly progress reports that were synthesized into annual project reports by WMO
In the final phase, management of SWFDP-SA was transferred to the region (MASA) – same will happen in other regions
RSMC Pretoria becoming by default the secretariat
MASA responsible for overall management, resource mobilization, etc
MASA provided a significant amount of funding for 2012 training and again for 2013 – but it needs to be topped up by outside resources – WMO found sponsor support for 2012 and 2013
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20. impact of SWFDP on Dc/ldc countries
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21. Example 1: Tropical Cyclone Favio 20-24 Feb 2007
TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe
The consistency of model forecasts provided confidence to RSMC Pretoria to issue guidance to NMCs on potential landfall and movement 5 days in advance
The model forecast proved to be quite accurate with landfall at Vilancoulos, moving to Eastern Zimbabwe
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22. Impact of Tropical Cyclone Favio
In both Mozambique and Zimbabwe
the NMCs agreed with the guidance products
and issued warnings 5 days in advance to disaster
management departments
In Mozambique:
Provinces were put on alert levels
2 - 3 days in advance
The public responded well and major
loss of live were prevented
In Zimbabwe:
Public received early warnings by radio,
TV and newspapers 5 days in advance
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23. Example 2: Tropical Cyclone IRINA- 4 March 2012
Example of collaboration in SWFDP between RSMC Pretoria, NMSs of Swaziland and Mozambique
Difficult system to predict due to large EPS uncertainty
RSMC-Pretoria issued guidance forecasts for potential impact around north-eastern SA, Swaziland, southern Mozambique
RSMC and NMSs of Swaziland and Mozambique were in regular contact via and telephone regarding the progress and uncertainty of the landfall
Disaster Management centres of 3 countries kept up to date by their NMSs
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24. Comments on the outcomes of SWFDP
It proved that the technology gap can be effectively bridged through a practical, operational approach
SWFDP was successful in building the forecasting capacity and improving warnings services in countries
Comment from a disaster manager (Zimbabwe) during the demonstration phase: “I can see the increase in confidence of the forecasters…”
Support also expressed by countries, regional bodies (MASA, EAC), etc
It opened channels between weather forecasters and disaster managers in countries where they did not exist in the past
SWFDP developed a framework for collaboration among NMSs and with their disaster management structures and media that can be used and built on by other activities
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25. Comments on the outcomes of SWFDP
SWFDP strengths are:
Its simplicity, few hazards, no complex equipment - NMSs only needed internet
Highly operational focus – support NMSs exactly where they need it for improved services
It took the autonomy of countries in Southern Africa into account – nothing was imposed, they issued warnings according to their own criteria
It had direct benefit and participation of each role-player
It built capacity that could be immediately used in an operational environment by all countries involved
It provided direct benefit to the users – disaster management, media and public
The focused aim on only a few hazards and few countries helped to establish the framework for the region that can be expanded on later
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26. Comments on the outcomes of SWFDP
Challenges
Reaching and getting appropriate reaction from the public is difficult, some times even more so on LDCs where cultural issues can occur
In-country success depends on the dedication of the NMS
Continuous annual training is essential
The heaviest load lies on the RSMC, which needs to keep constantly pace with developments
In some areas still significant effort needed to get all countries at a reasonable level
It is unrealistic to expect complete success on all goals, and in all countries – there will be countries lagging behind that needs to be helped with specific interventions, which needs resources
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27. Societal and Economic Impact
Cost of SWFDP framework
Direct cost is relatively small: training and management workshops
Indirect in-kind costs by Global Centres, RSMCs and NMSs are not known completely (around USD60k for RSMC Pretoria as it is now – future increase expected as new components added)
What was the contribution of SWFDP to the saving of lives during TC Favio (2007) compared to TC Eline (2000) in Mozambique?
How do you attribute the cost of lives saved to the improved EWS?
Definitive improvement in the capability of forecasters
Improvement of warning lead-time and coordination with disaster management and the media
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28. looking forward
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29. Current Development Initiatives
Framework can be used to broaden to a multi-hazard EWS including existing initiatives on:
Flash flood warnings
River flood warnings
Storm surge warnings
Nowcasting methodology using satellite
(It is the same forecasters doing these activities…)
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30. WMO Initiative on Implementing Regional Flash Flood Guidance Systems
Aim to improve flash flood warnings in sub-regions around the world
The FFGS concept proved in Central America and Mekong River Basin
SARFFG under development will cover basins in 7 SADC countries
Developed by US Hydrologic Research Center in San Diego
Funded by USAID
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31. Flash Flood Guidance Process
Calculate from satellite & rain gauge info the averaged rainfall over small basins
Hydrologic models determine likely soil moisture and rainfall runoff for small basins
Determines potential for flash floods
Warnings to Disaster Management and Public
2010/08/31
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32. Future needs
Disaster management collaboration in various countries still need to be strengthened
Application at local level to be improved: dissemination and end-user response
Enhancement of communication bandwidth is essential
Support of countries lagging behind is high priority
Ensuring sustainability and continuous development
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33. Future Needs
To continue realize the benefits of SWFDP sub-programmes will require:
Continuing collaboration and dedication by the global centres, RSMCs and NMSs
Specialized products of global centers are crucial for the cascading forecast system to work
Links to R&D activities such as TIGGE, and the new WMO research projects replacing THORPEX
Financial resources (as elaborated by Alice), particularly for training activitie, technical team meetings, support with outreach activities
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34. Thank you
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