1. Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal
Vincent N. Sakwa
KMD

2. Login page http://www.meteo.go.ke/rsmc/index.php
Username: swfdp Password: swfdp1

5. NWP MODELS-REGIONAL PRODUCTS
COSMO(7km)
WRF(7km)
LAKE VICTORIA PRODUCTS
ALADIN LA RE-UNION
INDIAN OCEAN WAVES
UK MET OFFICE LAM
MET OFFICE EPS

9. GLOBAL PRODUCTS NOAA EA PRODUCTS ECMWF PRODUCTS UK MET PRODUCTS
TIGGE-GIFS East Africa products for

11. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS Short range forecasts (1-2 days)
Medium range forecasts (3-5 days)
Agrometeorology Products (5days)
Satellite products
Evaluation Form

14. Risk tables
Indicate areas where severe weather is expected, ‘X’ if it applies for the entire area, otherwise specified. Eg. S coast
Risk categories: No risk, Low, Medium or High

15. SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RISK TABLES
RSMC-NAIROBI
SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
RISK TABLES
SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)
Issue Date: Saturday 19th November 2011
In order to provide more information about the geographical location of the severe event the following convention is adopted when filling in the cells: X for the whole country, N for the northern part, S for the southern part, W for the western part and E for the eastern part.
Day 1: Saturday 19th November 2011
Heavy Rain
Strong Winds
RISK
No risk
Low risk
Medium risk
High risk X
DRC
N,E S

16. SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)
RSMC-NAIROBI
SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)
Issue Date: 19th November 2011
Valid for: 19th to 20th November 2011
Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table.
Degree of confidence: High
Day 2: Sunday 20th November 2011

17. Links to International Centers
ECMWF
NCEP
UK MET OFFICE
WMO
DWD
KMA
RSMC-PRETORIA
ICPAC
ICMWF
ACMAD
AGRHYMET

18. Regional and International Centres
ECMWF
NCEP
UKMO
WMO
RSMC-Reunion
ACMAD

19. Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)
Products that can be provided include:
Site specific “Meteograms”.
Precipitation threshold probability charts.
Windspeed threshold probability charts.
Spaghetti Diagrams.
Tropical cyclone tracks forecasts.

21. Links to National Met Services
Kenya
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Tanzania
Uganda
Burundi

22. Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM
Fields available include:
Accumulated precipitation (6 and 24-hour)
Outgoing longwave radiation
Pressure at mean sea level
Wet bulb potential temperature at 850 mbar
Temperature at 1.5m, 925hPa, 700hPa
Wind at 10m, 850hPa, 700hPa, 200hPa
Relative humidity at 925hPa, 700hPa

23. Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM
How can you get it?
Through a password protected website
The user name is afr_nms, and the password is uk_alam.
(ii) The forecast fields are available through EUMETCAST using satellite receiver stations. This allows the data to be viewed using forecaster workstations.

24. NCEP NWP Products
Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb
Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts
Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm

25. GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

26. Deterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS
Probabilistic , 30mm/day threshold
Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009
Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009
Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009 26

27. Surface and Column Parameters

28. Real Time Access to Products
Daily QPF
Probability of P
exceedance
Rainfall anomaly
Last 7 days
Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days

29. Real Time Monitoring 2. Current Status 7 days 30 days 180 days 90 days
Daily Evolution

30. Extreme Forecast Index