1. “Experience of Cuba in Early Warnings” Dr. José Rubiera Director National Forecasting Center Instituto de Meteorología, Cuba Dr. José Rubiera Director National Forecasting Center Instituto de Meteorología, Cuba Symposium on EWS for IntegratedDRM WMO Headquarters, Geneva Switzerland 23 – 24 May, 2006 Symposium on EWS for IntegratedDRM WMO Headquarters, Geneva Switzerland 23 – 24 May, 2006

2. Area : 110 922 km² Coastline: 5 746 km Population: 11 millon Population: 11 millon Overview on Cuba 14 provinces 1 Special Municipality 4195 Keys and inlets

3. MAYOR HURRICANES TRACKS (CAT 3-5) IN 110 YEARS Cuba’s greatest meteorological hazard are Hurricanes

4. Strong Winds Storm Surge Torrential Rains Tornadoes Strong Winds Storm Surge Torrential Rains Tornadoes Hurricanes are multi-hazard Systems

5. Cuba:Cuba: 1 National Forecasting Center 15 Provincial Forecasting Departments 67 Meteorological Stations 8 Meteorological Radars 3 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations 1 National Forecasting Center 15 Provincial Forecasting Departments 67 Meteorological Stations 8 Meteorological Radars 3 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

6. DATA INPUTANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELS DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS RESPONSE ACTIONS SATELLITES RADARS WEATHER STATIONS UA SOUNDINGS SHIPS BUOYS AIRCRAFTS FORECASTERS TV RADIO PHONE - FAX INTERNET NUMERICAL MODELS GOVERNMENT,C IVIL DEFENSE, RESIDENTS NATIONAL FORECASTING CENTER CENTER Issues Official Hurricane Forecasts & Warnings Issues Official Hurricane Forecasts & Warnings

7. AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF ALL SOCIETAL AND STATE FORCES AND RESOURCES. MISSION: TO PROTECT PERSONS, SOCIETAL STRUCTURES, NATIONAL ECONOMY, AS WELL AS NATURAL RESOURCES. AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF ALL SOCIETAL AND STATE FORCES AND RESOURCES. MISSION: TO PROTECT PERSONS, SOCIETAL STRUCTURES, NATIONAL ECONOMY, AS WELL AS NATURAL RESOURCES. Cuba:Cuba: CIVIL DEFENSE

8. Radio: 5 Natl. Networks 15 Prov. Networks 63 Municipal Radio Stations Coverage: 99.3 % of Cuban territory Radio: 5 Natl. Networks 15 Prov. Networks 63 Municipal Radio Stations Coverage: 99.3 % of Cuban territory Television: 4 Natl. Networks 15 Prov.TV Stations Coverage: 96 % of Cuban territory Television: 4 Natl. Networks 15 Prov.TV Stations Coverage: 96 % of Cuban territory Cuba:Cuba: RADIO & TELEVISION

9. National Forecasting Service TheMediaTheMediaCivilDefenseCivilDefense STRONGSTRONG PARTNERSHIPPARTNERSHIP TO FACE THE HURRICANE HAZARD, THERE IS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NFC,THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA

10. The Media is an effective link between the NMS, the Civil Defense and the community, having a strong influence in how a warning is received The Civil Defense receive a clear message so that they can take protective measures such as evacuation, well ahead of the impact. Cuban NMS uses an user-oriented philosophy, as emphasized by WMO PWS Program.Cuban NMS uses an user-oriented philosophy, as emphasized by WMO PWS Program. Cuban NMS has a reputation of accuracy, reliability and timeliness.Cuban NMS has a reputation of accuracy, reliability and timeliness. Early Warnings and Warnings are issued with a clear, concise wording, with a wide use of graphics and the introduction of probabilities to address incertitude.Early Warnings and Warnings are issued with a clear, concise wording, with a wide use of graphics and the introduction of probabilities to address incertitude. Cuban NMS uses an user-oriented philosophy, as emphasized by WMO PWS Program.Cuban NMS uses an user-oriented philosophy, as emphasized by WMO PWS Program. Cuban NMS has a reputation of accuracy, reliability and timeliness.Cuban NMS has a reputation of accuracy, reliability and timeliness. Early Warnings and Warnings are issued with a clear, concise wording, with a wide use of graphics and the introduction of probabilities to address incertitude.Early Warnings and Warnings are issued with a clear, concise wording, with a wide use of graphics and the introduction of probabilities to address incertitude. NATIONAL FORECASTING CENTER (NMS) MEDIAMEDIA CIVIL DEFENSE

11. “EARLY WARNINGS” Are issued by the NMS whenever there is some likelihood that hurricane conditions might be expected in the next 3, 4 or 5 days. Increases awareness on the hurricane threat and prepares everybody to take actions in the near future, if it becomes necessary. Heavily depends on a previous education and preparation of the users of this information (i.e. Government, Civil Defense, the Media people, residents, etc.). Are issued by the NMS whenever there is some likelihood that hurricane conditions might be expected in the next 3, 4 or 5 days. Increases awareness on the hurricane threat and prepares everybody to take actions in the near future, if it becomes necessary. Heavily depends on a previous education and preparation of the users of this information (i.e. Government, Civil Defense, the Media people, residents, etc.). Regular Warnings are issued every 6 hours or less from 72 hours before any forecasted strike

12. PUBLIC INFORMATION Is more frequent as the Tropical Cyclone becomes closer.Is more frequent as the Tropical Cyclone becomes closer. National Radio & TV broadcast “live” from the National Forecasting Center and the Civil Defense Headquarters from 48 – 24 hours before the storm strikes.National Radio & TV broadcast “live” from the National Forecasting Center and the Civil Defense Headquarters from 48 – 24 hours before the storm strikes. Local Radio & TV stations do the same for their localities from the Provintial Forecasting Departments and Local Civil.Local Radio & TV stations do the same for their localities from the Provintial Forecasting Departments and Local Civil. The Perception of Danger is gradually being created!!.The Perception of Danger is gradually being created!!. Is more frequent as the Tropical Cyclone becomes closer.Is more frequent as the Tropical Cyclone becomes closer. National Radio & TV broadcast “live” from the National Forecasting Center and the Civil Defense Headquarters from 48 – 24 hours before the storm strikes.National Radio & TV broadcast “live” from the National Forecasting Center and the Civil Defense Headquarters from 48 – 24 hours before the storm strikes. Local Radio & TV stations do the same for their localities from the Provintial Forecasting Departments and Local Civil.Local Radio & TV stations do the same for their localities from the Provintial Forecasting Departments and Local Civil. The Perception of Danger is gradually being created!!.The Perception of Danger is gradually being created!!.

13. Plain language is used, and also many details are given A call is made for everyone’s past experiences with hurricanes

14. People is warned about some details that could drive to confusion, i.e. the hurricane is NOT a point. And also that the main dangers are WINDS, FLOODINGS and STORM SURGE

15. The Use of Radar and Satellite Imagery in TV is very helpful to show the movement and the area covered by the Hurricane.

16. The Use of Probabilistic Cones to Address Uncertainties Tropical Storm CHARLEY Initial Pos. Aug 11 / 12 noon 16.5 N 76.1 W 175 km SE Kinsgton, JAM 860 km SE Isle of Youth Max.Sust.Winds: 110 km/h 72 hr Forecast

17. The Areas under Warnings are clearly shown

18. CIVIL DEFENSE HAS FOUR STAGES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES PROTECTION IN CUBA Informative- 72 - 96 hours before Alert – 48 hours before Alarm – 24 hours before Recovery – after the storm (Early Warning)

19. Intense Rains, 200 – 400 mm/24 hrs Intense Rains, 100 – 250 mm/24 hrs, Landslides Coastal Flooding, Strong Winds Strong Winds Coastal Flooding, Strong Winds, Max Gust 138 km/h Strong Winds, Max Gust 138 km/h Hurricane Wilma Oct 2005 A DIRECT HIT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CAUSE GREAT IMPACTS

24. RESULTS OF 10 YEARS OF ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASONS (1995 – 2004) NAMEYEARCATEVACUATEDECONOMIC LOSSES (millions USD) CASUALTIES LILI19962421 200 3620 GEORGES19981818 800 3066 MICHELLE 20014783 4001 8665 ISIDORE20021307 000 713 0 LILI20022385 300 1 CHARLEY 20043224 4499234 IVAN 200452 266 0681 2230 TOTAL 5 272817 5 393 18

25. THAT POLITICAL WILL AS WELL AS A RELIABLE AND TRUSTED CUBAN NMS FORECAST PLUS THE GOOD USE OF THE MEDIA AND THE ACTIONS OF THE CIVIL DEFENSE, HAVE PRODUCED THE SAVING OF MANY HUMAN LIVES. MATERIAL LOSSES HAVE ALSO BEEN MINIMIZED. THAT POLITICAL WILL AS WELL AS A RELIABLE AND TRUSTED CUBAN NMS FORECAST PLUS THE GOOD USE OF THE MEDIA AND THE ACTIONS OF THE CIVIL DEFENSE, HAVE PRODUCED THE SAVING OF MANY HUMAN LIVES. MATERIAL LOSSES HAVE ALSO BEEN MINIMIZED. CUBAN EXPERIENCE SHOWS

26. THANK YOU … MUCHAS GRACIAS …