1. Paulo Afonso Romano Deputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES Belo Horizonte-MG JULY/2010 TALLER INTERNACIONAL SOBRE LA CRISIS DE SOBREVIVENCIA DE LOS PRODUCTORES RURALES SERVIÇOS DE CLIMA Y TEMPO

2. INDEX 2  GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION  GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND  POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES  TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE  WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS  BRAZILIAN EXPORTS  BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS  ECONOMIC GROWTH  PARADIGM SHIFT  NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY  MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA  MINAS GERAIS – SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

3. GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION 2 19502,5 BILLION INHAB. 1975 4,1 BILLION INHAB. 2000 6,1 BILLION INHAB. 2025 8,0 BILLION INHAB. 2050 9,2 BILLION INHAB. DEMAND FOR FOOD/ ENERGY/ FIBERS 3

4. GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND 140 MILLION PEOPLE EXITED THE POVERTY LINE 1998 US$37,5 1 TRILLION 2008 US$68,6 TRILLION 60% OF THE POPULATION IN THE CITIES ENERGY AND FOOD DEVELOPED COUNTRIES EMERGING COUNTRIES AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WORLD GDP Source: United Nations: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007) Design: SEAPA 4 EU: 7,3% EUA: 4,5% Indonesia: 3,5¨% Brazil: 2,9% Pakistan: 2,6% Others: 42,3% 2008 6,69 billion inhabitants 4

5. INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES 5 Source: IBGE – Demographic Censuses of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000 / PNAD 2006, 2007and 2008. Design: SEAPA 70% of the population of Minas Gerais (7,8 million inhabit.) 14% of the population of Minas Gerais (19,9 million inhab.) MINAS GERAIS Rural populationUrban population

6. TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE EXPANSION-AGRICULTURAL BORDER TOWARDS CENTRAL BR - CERRADO PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: “GREEN REVOLUTION”: AGRICULTURAL POLICY: SNCR, PGPM, PROAGRO, Research and Rural Extension. 6 Source: CONAB – Historical series / Monitoring of the Brazilian Harvest – Grains, June, 2010. Design: SEAPA 125,4% 1.258 2.835 222,3% 1.1423.681 PRODUCTIVITY (KG/ha) BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION OF GRAINS

7. Source: USDA – Design: SEAPA WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS Production x Consumption*: total of the period (2000/01-2009/10) 7 Note: * soybean, maize, wheat, barley, oats and rice Million tons Brazil is the "superpower ready to feed the world " Financial Times - 11/05/2009 7 + 2,2 - 382,0 + 217,9 World ChinaBrazil Prod 20.956,6 Cons. 20.954,4 Prod 3.819,0 Cons. 4.201,0 SUPPLY OF STOCKS Prod 1.122,9 Cons. 905,0

8. BRAZILIAN EXPORTS RELATIVE PARTICIPATION OF THE AGRIBUSINESS 118,5137,8160,6197,9153,089,2 Source: MDIC- ALICEWEB- Design: SEAPA BILLION DOLLARS 43,6 49,558,471,864,7 34,9 * Related to the period from January to June 2010. 8 38,542,749,759,954,928,9 TRADE BALANCE (US$ BILLION) AGRIBUSINESS EXPORT (US$ BILLION)

9. BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS EMPLOYMENT GENERATION (2007) Provides jobs for 3,5 million people Fonte: IBGE / FIPE - Elaboração: Seapa 90,8 million people Agribusiness Coffee 10% Other agribusiness activities 90% 33,5 million people 9 Other sectors 63% Agribusiness 37% 9

10. ECONOMIC GROWTH 10 AGRICULTURE: RESOURCES TO FUND DEVELOPMENT INCOME TRANSFERENCE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY IMPOVERISHMENT OF PEOPLE AND NATURAL RESOURCES Design: SEAPA

11. PARADIGM SHIFT NATURAL RESOURCES DEMAND OF FOOD ENERGY FIBERS PRODUCTION SYSTEM HUMAN ACTIONS SOCIETY RURAL PRODUCER NATURAL RESOURCES DEMAND OF FOOD, ENERGY, FIBERS, ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS AND SERVICES MANAGER OF THE RURAL AREA HUMAN ACTIONS SOCIETY RURAL PRODUCER PARADIGM OF PRODUCTIVITY PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABILITY 11 Design: SEAPA

12. NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY 12 COMBINATION OF THE DESIRE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ETHICAL NEED FOR THE MITIGATION OF POVERTY, WITH SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION ECONOMIC GROWTH POVERTY MITIGATION SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION 12 Design: SEAPA

13. OUTROS ESTADOS MG 13 MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF  SOIL CONSERVATION Elaboração: SEAPA  FOOD AND FIBERS  RICHNESS  FOREIGN EXCHANGE  ENERGY  ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS ANDS SERVICES  BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION  CO 2 REMOVAL  WATER PRODUCTION AND QUALITY  JOBS  CULTURAL GOODS AND VALUES 13 Design: SEAPA

14. 14 MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES Elaboração: SEAPA  CLIMATE CHANGES 14 Design: SEAPA  RURAL INSURANCE  MINIMUM PRICE POLICY  NATIONAL PLAN OF IRRIGATION  TECHNOLOGY ADJUSTMENT – NEW VARIETIES  PRODUCTION SYSTEMS – MITIGATION OF IMPACTS  INDICATORS OF LIQUID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS  ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES– AGRICULTURAL INCOME CONFRONTATION POLICY

15. 15 MINAS GERAIS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE 15 Design: SEAPA

16. CERTIFICATION OF THE ADEQUACY OF COFFEE-PRODUCING PROPERTIES TO GOOD PRODUCTION PRACTICES, IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEMANDS OF THE WORLD MARKET, ALLOWING THE COFFEE PRODUCED IN MINAS GERAIS TO REACH NEW MARKETS.. 2009: 1.026 CERTIFIED PROPERTIES CERTIFICA MINAS INCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS  PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG 16 Design: SEAPA

17. Elaboração: Seapa CERTIFICA MINAS INCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS  BOVINE CATTLE RAISING - TRACING ASSURANCE OF BEEF SAFETY, WITH THE ADDITION OF VALUE TO THE PRODUCT 2009: 1.757 PROPERTIES ABLE TO PROVIDE ANIMALS FOR EXPORT SLAUGHTERHOUSES  PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG 17 Design: SEAPA

18. FOREST DEVELOPMENT PROMOTION OF THE CULTIVATION OF FORESTS PLANTED IN RURAL PROPERTIES, AIMING AT INTEGRATING AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIES INTEGRATION OF CROP – CATTLE RAISING – FOREST INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIES IN THE SAME AREA, COMBINING SEVERAL TYPES OF PLANTED FOREST, PASTURE AND GRAINS. 2008 - 2009: 230 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED  PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG Elaboração: Seapa 18 2009: 885 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED 18 Design: SEAPA

19. STATE OFFICE FOR AGRICULTURE, CATTLE RAISING AND SUPPLY Rua Cláudio Manoel, 1205, Belo Horizonte – MG CEP: 30140 -100 19