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Published byManuel Laye Modified over 10 years ago
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Edited by Marion Jansen, Ralf Peters and José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs
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Thematic edited volume; Financed through EC-funded project: “Assessing and Addressing the Employment Effects of Trade”; ◦ Country level work in four countries: Bangladesh, Benin, Guatemala and Indonesia. ◦ Forthcoming research structured around three axes: Agricultural trade and employment Services trade and employment Regional trade and employment
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Three objectives : ◦ Take stock of existing evidence on trade and employment; ◦ Contribute to design of tools to generate evidence on employment effects of trade; ◦ Contribute to debate on coherent labour and trade policies
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Six commissioned chapters: New Evidence on Trade and Employment: An Overview Margaret McMillan and Iñigo Verduzco Assessing the Impact of Trade on Employment Bill Gibson Trade and the Informal Economy Anushree Sinha Gender Aspects of Trade Günseli Berik Trade Adjustment Costs and Assistance: The Labour Market Dynamics Joseph Francois, Marion Jansen and Ralf Peters Trade Diversification: Drivers and Impacts Olivier Cadot, Céline Carrère and Vanessa Strauss-Kahn
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Main findings: Allocative efficiency depends on institutional settings (chapter 2); Job creation in the exporting sector may be disappointing (chapter 2); The informal economy cannot be ignored (chapter 4); Trade does not necessarily reduce gender gaps (chapter 5); Country specifics determine how and to which extent trade liberalization contributes to increased diversification (chapter 7). Taking stock of existing evidence
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Export concentration: Theil Indices
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Main messages: Use economy-wide rather than partial equilibrium models (chapter 3); Getting the micro-foundations right is important (chapter 3); CGEs for developing countries should model the informal economy explicitly (chapter 4); More emphasis should be given to employment effects at the occupational rather than industry level (chapter 2). Standard CGE simulations generate information that can be useful to roughly assess labour adjustment costs to trade (chapter 6); Generating Facts: Providing Tools to Generate More Evidence
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time Output Y0Y0 YTYT Y T,A Y(t) Expected long-run equilibrium without adjustment costs Expected long-run equilibrium With adjustment costs Allocative efficiency depends on adjustment process
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Standard deviation of sector changes in employment (percentage)
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Main findings: Strong social protection systems are preferable to targeted adjustment assistance (chapter 6); Governments have a role in helping firms to survive or grow … (chapter 7); … in particular in the case of informal firms (chapter 4); Gender aspects of trade need to be addressed through gender equity policies (chapter 5); Education and skills policies prepare the ground for the development of new export products (chapter 7). Coherent policy making
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Available at: http://www.ilo.org/trade
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