1. Strategic Foresight: Engaging the Emergency Management community to look to the future

2. Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Overview
Effort to understand who or what could shape the FUTURE of emergency management so that we can proactively begin addressing those issues TODAY
Supports emergency management leadership in its strategic decision-making and planning
Engages emergency managers, subject matter experts, other federal agencies, academia and the private sector to explore what factors could impact the future emergency management environment
Creates a shared space for coordinating research and analysis
BRIAN
Trying to understand those issues, trends and events that could shape the EM landscape so that we can proactively begin addressing them
Our goal is to improve strategic decision making and planning in emergency management…we want to be more proactive as a community
We want to be both imaginative and systematic
FEMA has created and will continue to support this space for the community to come together with outside experts to discuss, debate, and analyze the implications of the future environment on how we do business
An important note is that we are not trying to predict the future…we want to understand what could happen, not what will happen
BENEFITS
Promotes information sharing across disciplines and organizations
Explores latest EM research
Broad knowledge base generating new ideas
More comprehensive information to make more proactive decisions
Increased communication among interconnected EM stakeholders
Opportunity for more effective EM resource allocation
Opportunity for strategy alignment and operational collaboration across organizations
Space for dialogue and discovery about future issues, threats, implications, trends, and solutions
Access to existing communities of practice and subject matter experts
Active community discussing strategy and operations
Opportunity for integrated planning -END OF NOTES

3. Strategic Foresight Initiative Phases
Scoping Workshop (April 14) –Begin to define, refine, and highlight key drivers that may impact the future of emergency management
Network Collaboration (May-August) – Online community discussion focusing on better understanding emerging trends, key issue areas, and implications behind the emergency management drivers
Strategic Needs Workshop (August) –Synthesize and examine the results of the online collaboration to create an emergent picture of future strategic needs for emergency management
Network Engagement – Experts network continues to explore drivers and strategic needs and helps set ongoing research agenda
BRIAN
Walk through 4 phases
Phase 4: We expect our dialogue and discussions to lead in many different directions
Our goal is to maintain this space to continue our discussions beyond August
Though we have some ideas, we are not sure what that longer-term engagement should look like
We’d appreciate any thoughts now, or as the initiative moves forward
This will be a further discussion in the future

4. Drivers of Change DRIVER DEFINITION Changing Role of the Individual
Through rapid technology growth and evolving expectations, individuals are being empowered as never before.  This evolution could lead to a dramatic redefinition of community where geography no longer defines one's community, and national loyalty is no longer a certainty.  Rather community could become a conglomeration of like-minded individuals across the globe.  This empowerment could also change how individuals interact with government and businesses and affect the definition of individual, family, and community resilience and preparedness.
Climate Change
Regardless of why the climate is changing, there could be impacts on emergency management in the United States.  Particular community concerns include increased storm intensity, rising sea levels that threaten coastal areas, drought and fire risk, and the potential for shifting disease patterns.  Potential international climate change effects could also lead to mass migration to the US, particularly from Caribbean and South American countries.
Critical Infrastructure
Currently, US infrastructure is nearing the end of its life-cycle and will require significant investment to avoid crisis.  Aging transportation, communication, energy and health care infrastructure pose significant threats and are in danger of failing over the next years.  Furthermore, evolving infrastructure interdependencies could introduce considerable risk to the nation.  Equally, the need to invest in our infrastructure presents an opportunity to build more resilient and technologically advanced infrastructure to serve the US in the future.
Evolving Terrorist Threat
How terrorist threats and the security environment evolve will drive the future emergency management environment.    Terrorist organizations are operating smarter, while the threat of homegrown terrorist threats continues to grow.  Technological innovation will continue to present new opportunities for both terrorists and counterterrorism professionals.  The proliferation of WMD, particularly nuclear and biological weapons will continue to be a major concern along with an increase in interaction between terrorist and transnational criminal organizations.

5. Drivers of Change DRIVER DEFINITION Global Interdependencies
Globalization has created a more complex and interdependent global environment where a crisis in one part of the world can have significant impacts on another (recent volcanic activity in Iceland is an example).  Economic globalization, a more integrated global financial system and supply chain all create challenges.  This global interdependence could lead to an increase in emergency management needs internationally and will require a better understanding of the changing international environment by US emergency management.
Government Budgets
The current economic environment brings the tenuous state of government budgets, particularly with respect to emergency management funding, into focus as a major driver of the future emergency management landscape.  The current near-term forecasts for State, local, and Federal budgets are grim and could lead to funding sustainability problems for EM.  In addition, some believe a shift in expectations from local governments to the Federal or State governments due to shrinking budgets could occur.  Conversely, it is plausible that the economic environment within the United States will substantially improve over the coming years and present a different set of implications for emergency management.
Metro Area Population
Trends show significant growth in metropolitan areas, particularly metro areas in vulnerable locations (eg: coastal, flood plains, drought-prone areas). While many view Metro Areas as primarily urban, they often include urban, suburban, and rural areas. Growth of metro areas has implications for land use, infrastructure, and economic integration. In addition, the movement of people to metro areas may create what have been termed "super-regions" where multiple metro areas essentially grow so large they merge together.

6. Drivers of Change DRIVER DEFINITION Special Needs Populations
The overall US population is projected to grow significantly over the next years.  Within this overall population growth, there are three specific special needs populations that are also projected to grow that could become major drivers of the future environment: aging, socially vulnerable, and ethnically diverse populations.  Trends show that the US population will become significantly older (over 65) over the next years.  Social vulnerability, particularly poverty could be a major driver, especially as metro areas continue to grow.  Finally, projections show the US becoming a much more diverse country, with a heavy increase of both Hispanic and Asian citizens.
Technological Innovation and Dependency
Rapid technological innovation is expected to continue over the next years with the potential for dramatic changes in how we live, work and play.  Medical breakthroughs, improvements in how we model and warn about disasters, and the implications of bio and nanotechnology on the security environment, are examples of important technological innovations that could dramatically impact emergency management. This rapid innovation has led to an increasing dependency on technology by the United States, including the emergency management community.
Universal Access to and Use of Information
The explosion of social media and personal communications technology will continue to increase real-time access and delivery of information.  We already see a significant amount of "spontaneous reporting" where individuals at or near the scene of an incident instantly post video, images, text messages, etc from their personal communications device.  This has created an environment of constant information flow that presents both great opportunities and challenges.  The new patterns of information flow have changed the role of the mainstream/traditional media while making it increasingly difficult for emergency management to break through the cluttered information market.

7. Next Steps
Online and Non-line collaboration around key drivers, trends, and key issue areas
Special events and targeted conferences
Strategic Needs Conference (August 2010)
Other ideas?
BRIAN
Turn over to Dave

8. Getting Involved Brian Scully (SFI Program Lead) 202.646.2921