1. Nigeria: Political and Economic Change
Brian Huang

2. Outline: The Three Eras
Pre-colonial ( )
Colonial ( )
Modern Nigeria (1961-present)
Four republics

3. Pre-colonial Era ( )
Fulani establish the Sokoto Caliphate in the north (1808)
Traded with Northern Africa
Southern Nigeria was part of the Atlantic Ocean trade
Slave trade
Driven by demand for western goods
Ended in 1833

4. Colonial Era (1861-1960) British imposed “indirect rule” (1860)
Trained, southern natives filled the European- style bureaucracy
British left the Islamic north alone—leaving the established political hierarchies
Lagos was a trading outlet: resource rich and cheap labor

5. Mercantilism Nigeria exported raw materials to Britain
Imported finished goods from Britain
1939 Economic focus: Peanut north, Cocoa west, Palm oil east
Contributed to the modern troubles in industry and service sectors

6. Independence from Britain
October 1, 1960
Causes
Effects
Western Education and the creation of a literate population
Economic instability
Constitution set in place
Intensification of ethnic cleavages
Developed government structure
Power struggle
Nigerian desire for independence

7. Modern Nigeria (1960-present)
: 1st Republic: Parliamentary system
: Coup d'états and assassinations
Failed 2nd and 3rd republics
1999-present: Presidential Democracy
Election fraud and violence
National Question: “Can Nigeria survive on its own?”

8. Timeline of Power Years Ruler Type of Government 1960-1966
Tafawa Balewa
Republic
1966
Johnson Aguyi-Ironsi
Military Dictatorship
Yakubu Gowon
Murtala Muhammed
Olusegun Obasanjo
Shehu Shagari
Presidential Democracy
Muhammed Buhari
Ibrahim Abangida
Sani Abacha
Umaru Yar’ Adua
2010-Present
Goodluck Jonathon

9. 1979: Democracy
1999: Democracy
1983: Military Coup
1993: Military Coup
1985: Military Coup

10. Corruption Stems from oil
Military presidents maintained foreign bank accounts stowing away Nigerian funds
Abacha: $500 million in Swiss Accounts
Nigerian elite received funds by patron client system
Caused: voting fraud and political instability
Desperately needed: increased transparency

11. Oil Economy 1970s: oil prices boom 1980s: oil prices plummet
Everything is focused on oil
Lack of advancement in other sectors of the economy like agriculture
1980s: oil prices plummet
Economy tanks because of the lack of advancement in other sectors
Challenge to balance long term economic logic with immediate social needs
Main exports: minerals, natural gas, petroleum, and oil

12. Oil Profits
Corporations (Exxon Mobile, Shell, ChevronTexaco, etc.) drill oil reserves and receive 43% of the profits
Nigerian Profits: 80% government, 16% operational costs, 4% investors
Less to the north
Leaders are rent-seeking

13. Nigerian Debt
Accumulated $35 billion in debt from international organizations (World Bank and IMF)
Paid Paris Club $12.4 billion for $30 billion in debt (2006)
Effects: Removes the barriers of debt, providing economic momentum to shift the focus away from oil; attracts foreign investors
Current debt: $15.73 billion (2014)

14. Current Statistics GDP: $478.5 billion (2013)
GDP per capita $2,800 (2013)
31% agriculture, 43% industry, 26% services (2012)
70% live below the poverty line (2010)
GINI Index 48.8 (2010)

15. A = Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing
GDP Breakdown (2012)
From Euromonitor
A = Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing
B = Mining and Quarrying (including oil and petroleum)
C = Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles and Personal and Household Goods
D = Financial Intermediation, Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities

16. Privatized Industries
Military coups nationalized most industries
1992 – Privatization of 73 companies (insurance, banking, etc.)
1990s – Electricity and Telecommunications privatized by advice of IMF and World Bank

17. Modern Reforms
New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) encourages good governance, promotes foreign investment, increases in foreign aid, and liberalizes trade (2001)
National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS and SEEDS) empower citizens by promoting agriculture and improving water and electricity supplies, communications, roads, schools and health facilities (2004)

18. Russia and Nigeria Chechen Civil War and the Biafran Civil War
Ethnic cleavages affect politics

19. China and Nigeria
China established a national (communist) ideology which serves to unite the ethnic groups
Nigerian rulers have never established an ideology; it has been military coup after military coup
Nigeria, without an ideology, cannot stop fragmentation

20. UK and Mexico and Nigeria
UK and Mexico have had more time to establish democracy and institutionalize the government
Curse of Oil in Nigeria and Mexico
Mexico has debt, but is backed by the United States
Nigeria’s debt is in the World Bank and other international organizations
~Gini as Mexico