1. Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries learn?

2. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 Renewables International: news in renewables in Germany and abroad every workday www.renewablesinternational.net

3. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 Website on German energy transition for Heinrich Böll Foundation end of October

4. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev Solar and PV already close to baseload demand; will cut into baseload within decade when targets are met. Combined installed wind+PV will exceed peak demand by 25%

5. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev Not April Fools: Renewables already increasingly cut into baseload, such as on Sunday, April 1.

6. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev What happened at 4 pm on April 1? Left: solar power production Right: wind power Visit EEX Transparency website

7. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev The result was negative prices at 4 pm. Good: firms benefit from low wholesale prices thanks to RE Bad: Investments in dispatchable conventional power less attractive

8. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect). Wind (light green) and solar (yellow) complement each other well. Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISEFraunhofer ISE

9. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect). Wind (blue) and solar (orange) complement each other well. Source: Bernard Chabot, Renewables InternationalRenewables International

10. Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev Conclusions: If Ukraine has ~22 GW summer peak demand, 11 GW of wind and 11 of solar in Ukraine should have similar effect Germany remains power exporter; grid stability best in EU (world?); CO2 emissions dropped again in 2011 despite nuclear phase-out  In mid-2012, Germany had 30 GW of wind and 29 of PV, each roughly equal to 50% of average demand (60-70 GW)  At 50%, RE offsets peak and medium load, lowers wholesale prices  Above that level, RE increasingly cuts into baseload  Increasingly, RE power will have to be stored or lost  PV currently makes up 5.3% of power supply, so 10% is feasible, but more will increasingly require (seasonal) storage  Countries with lots of air-conditioning (USA) have greater summer than winter peaks, so larger share of PV is possible there  Wind now makes up around 8% in Germany, ~20% easily feasible (assuming grid integration)