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Dennis Turner, Chief Economist, HSBC UK Economic Outlook Bumping along…
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Bumping along…. Dennis Turner HSBC Bank plc UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2010
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THE RECESSION IS OVER
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A deep recession
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ALL THE LEVERS PULLED
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Fiscal policy loosened
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Government finances already in deficit
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And deteriorated rapidly March 2010 Budget Report
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Net debt (as a % of GDP) soaring Sustainable Investment Rule March 2010 Budget
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Interest rates fall to historic lows
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The lowest for over 300 years
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And sterling plummeted
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Sterling takes a pounding US dollar / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis )
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STRAWS IN THE WIND
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An end to destocking
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Key PMI surveys in positive territory expansion contraction
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Housing market fragile but improving rising falling House prices:
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Exports starting to respond
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A slow recovery is underway Forecast
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RISKS
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a) Debt overhang
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Consumers were the driving force
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But underpinned by borrowing
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b) Fragile consumer sector
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So real earnings squeezed
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A slower recovery than the last recession Forecast
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Consumer confidence still weak Long-term average
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c) Public sector spending cuts
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Planned government spending cuts (£bn)
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Govt receipts and spending (% of GDP)
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d) Slow growth in key export markets
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Euro Area growth forecast Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
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Euro Area growth forecast 2 Euro Area Annual GDP growth:
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Exports are starting to respond Volume of UK goods exports:
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f) Banking and credit problems
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Funding issues
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An injection of £200bn via QE
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Credit growth still very subdued Lending to households Lending to businesses Annualized growth in outstanding lending
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SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
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Slow fragile growth
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Inflation – higher for longer Forecast Target Range
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And interest rates start to turn Forecast
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The exchange rate is favourable Sterling weaker US$ / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis ) HSBC forecast
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THE NEW AGENDA
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Where will growth come from?
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Manufacturing output Volume of output, 1950-2009 Manufacturing output
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Manufacturing vs services GDP Services Volume of output, 1950-2009 Manufacturing
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THANK YOU
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