1. SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May 23, 2012 – Atlanta, GA

2. SEMAP Project
SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project
Managed through SESARM
Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP
AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV

3. Outline Emission Inventory Development WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ
Future Year Projections for O3, PM2.5, RH
Ozone Emission Sensitivities
Regional Haze Periodic Reporting

4. Important Note
SEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS.
Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling.
Most likely, none of this modeling will be used in any SIPs.

5. Emission Inventory Emissions Inventory Contractors
AMEC/Alpine  Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions.
TranSystems  Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions.
“Actual” Emission Inventory (2007)
Used for model performance evaluations
“Typical” Emission Inventory ( )
EGUs and fires
Used for model projections and RRF calculations
Future Year Inventory – 2020
Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR
Rerun NONROAD
Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY)
Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY): SMOKE ready emissions by each state (could be more than one county); can be different ratio for different areas in a state; for GA four PM2.5 maintenance areas done (ATL, Macon, Floyd, Chattanooga) and additional run for the rest of state

6. Point Source NOx

7. Point Source SO2

8. MOVES Emissions New tools had to be developed for QA Rate Per Distance
Rate Per Profile
Rate Per Vehicle

9. NOx from Wildfires

10. NOx from Ag, Open, Rx Burning

11. Non-Road and Area NOx

12. Non-Road and Area SO2

13. EGU Point SO2

14. Meteorological Modeling
WRF Model Set-Up
36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US
35 Vertical Layers
Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation
Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL)
Modeling Centers
NC DENR and IA DNR
Model Performance Evaluation
Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER)
NC DENR and GA EPD

15. WRF Modeling Domain

16. Surface Layer

17. Air Quality Modeling System
Meteorology (WRF)
Air Quality (CMAQ)
Emissions (SMOKE)
Emissions
Inventory
(NIF)
MOVES
Inputs

18. Emissions Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor
Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format)
Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES
Created biogenic emissions (BEIS)
Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions
Part 75 data replacement for CEMS
Details on next slide
All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.

19. 1. Detect and correct atypical data
2. Gap filling for partial reporters

20. 2007 Air Quality Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor
2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0
36 and 12 km grids
Model Performance Evaluation
Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor)
New CMAQv5.0 Model Options
Additional new crustal species  YES
In-line plume rise for point sources  YES
In-line lightning NOx  YES
In-line bi-directional NH3 flux  NO
In-line biogenic emissions  NO
In-line wind blown dust  NO

21. CMAQ Modeling Domain

22. SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

23. 2020 Air Quality Modeling 2020 Annual Emisisons Modeling
SMOKE for most source sectors
MOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode
2020 Annual CMAQ Modeling
Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze
Follow EPA’s RRF approach
Ozone Emission Sensitivity Modeling
Statewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductions
Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km
Performed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 model runs)
For all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.

24. Georgia NOx vs. VOCs
Surface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOC
Red numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations

25. VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates
Previous Sensitivity Modeling
Planned Sensitivity Modeling
CMAQv4.4
CMAQv5.0
1-Month Summer Episode
5-Month Ozone Season
VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseD
SEMAP 2020
SEMAP-wide VOC Reductions
State-wide VOC Reductions
County/State NOx Reductions
State-wide NOx Reductions
MOBILE6
MOVES
Absolute Difference
RRF Approach
>70 ppb Cutoff
>60 ppb Cutoff

26. SEMAP Modeling Schedule

27. Regional Haze Obligations
5-year Periodic Reports
First reports due December 2012 (NC, SC)
2018 Regional Haze SIP Revisions
Due July 31, 2018
Work must begin by mid-2014
For all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.

28. SEMAP Regional Haze TSD
Current Visibility Conditions
Examine IMPROVE Measurements
Emission Inventory Changes
VISTAS 2002 (actual), 2007 SEMAP (actual), VISTAS 2009 (projected), and VISTAS 2018 (projected)
Update 2007 SEMAP with 2009, 2010, 2011 CEMS
Status of Emission Controls in SIP
Federal and State Controls
Assessment of Current SIP
For all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.

29. Regional Haze at COHU
Surface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOC

30. Regional Haze SO2 Emissions
Surface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOC

31. Contact Information
Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA