1. David Purkey, SEI Rob Lempert, RAND
C: XLRM Session
David Purkey, SEI
Rob Lempert, RAND

2. Robustness Analysis OSeMOSYS Uncertainties: Response Strategies:
Changes in Climate
Changes in Population
Changes in Landuse
Response Strategies:
Add infrastructure (e.g. desalination)
Improvements in system efficiency
Wastewater reuse
Demand Management
OSeMOSYS
Iterative, analytic process designed to identify strategies that are robust to a wide range of planning uncertainties.
Outcome Metrics:
Delivery reliability
Unmet demands
Hydropower generation
Groundwater & surface water storage

3. Recall also that the “XLRM” Framework support participatory scoping and analytical design
Uncertainty Factors (X)
Response Packages/Policy Levers (L)
Uncertain factors outside of the control of water managers which form the basis of scenarios analysis.
Management strategies available to water managers:
Current system
Planned strategies
Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)
Models to produce metrics of performance (M) for each strategy (L) in the face of ensembles of uncertainties (X)
Results of interest, metrics used to evaluate the performance of strategies under consideration

4. Factors of Uncertainty(X) Performance Metrics (M)
Uncertainties (X)
Factors of Uncertainty(X)
Response Packages (L)
What uncertain factors, outside the control of water managers, may affect water management outcomes?
What is the plausible range for such uncertainties?
What information is needed to define these ranges and any best estimates?
Who has the information?
Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)

5. Performance Metrics (M)
Factors of Uncertainty (X)
Response Packages (L)
Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)
What characteristic of system performance are important to you?
  What are the measures and indicators that we should use to evaluate these characteristics?
  What are the acceptable levels and limits of this measures and indicators ​​to be achieved?
  What is the information needed to define these acceptable levels and limits?
  Who has the information?

6. Response Packages (L) Factor s of Uncertainty (X)
Response Packages/Policy Levers (L)
Are there additional projects that we should include in the base line?
What types of response packages in addition my potentially address the impacts of climate change?
Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)

7. Factors of Uncertainty (X) Performance Metrics (M)
Relationships (R)
Factors of Uncertainty (X)
Response Packages (L)
Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)
Based on what you heard yesterday about our tools and approaches, what advice would you have for improving the modeling that will be use to support the analysis?

8. Uncertainty Factors (X) Response Packages/Policy Levers (L)
Future climate (plus flood, droughts)
Future cropping patterns
Population and economic growth, and their effect on water demand
Ability to implement end use efficiency programs
Funding availability
Operational deviations from assurance rules
Natural hazards (earthquakes)
Political instability (allocations, demand, international trade)
Cost variability (energy and water)
Infrastructure ground conditions delay implementation, as does corruption
Hydropower plant efficiency (sedimentation)
Historical uncertainty
New resource discovery (gas), and policies (nuclear)
Market reforms (energy, water)
Non-technical losses (theft)
Organizational capacity
Allocation compliance during stress
Environmental flows expand
Water quality degradation (Vaal)
Infrastructure investments
Storage, transfer, hydro, irrigation
LH III and IV (timing)
Re-regulating dam
Fish river dam
Water governance
Inter-basin integrated planning and cooperation
Organizational stability
Allocation priority between sectors
Water management
Enhance end use efficiency
Change cropping patterns
Develop more ground water
Encourage growth in water rich areas
Distribution loss reduction
Planned assurance rules
Catchment management
Monitoring, higher res info
Water reuse, return flow capture
Service expansion to rural communities
Energy
Mix
transmission
Relationships in Models (R)
Performance Metrics (M)
WEAP
OSeMOSYS
Water supply reliability/assurance (for different sectors)
Electricity metrics (Mark leads)
Water quality
Hydropower supply reliability
Environmental flows (e.g. river mouth RAMSAR site, other key points)
Number of system failures
National food production levels