1. Experiments with RAINS-NL Jan Aben

2. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20062 Contents Features and objectives of RAINS-NL Illustration of a feature Exploration of Euro V and Euro VI effects on PM 2.5 emissions and concentrations Conclusions

3. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20063 Features Increased spatial resolution (NL domain only) –EMEP based TM’s (50x50 km)  OPS based TMs (5x5 km) –high resolution ecosystem and population data Sector specific transfer matrices allowing better spatial allocation of control measures NO 2 concentration

4. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20064 Objectives of RAINS-NL Providing a general framework for IA analysis Detailing RAINS outcomes for the Netherlands Studying the effects of alternative national strategies, including the consequences for other countries

5. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20065 Increased resolution in RAINS-NL RAINS underestimates N-problem in hot spots

6. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20066 Effects of EURO V and VI on NO 2 and PM 2.5 NO 2 and PM are bottlenecks in Dutch cities Traffic is an important source of NO x and PM emissions Investigation into the effects of proposed EURO standards on PM 2.5 concentrations

7. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20067 Two alternative strategies MOBv1: Starts from Commission proposal Euro V for cars and vans (starting ± 2008) and European stimulation of cleaner trucks (Euro IV and V) MOBv2: Starts from Commission proposal EURO V for cars and vans and EURO VI (starting ± 2012) for cars and trucks (Ricardo) Alternative strategies applied to NL, BE, GE, FR, UK

8. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20068 Development of shares of Euro standards

9. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 20069 Reduction of NO x emission by road traffic in 2020

10. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200610 Reduction of PM 2.5 emission by road traffic in 2020

11. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200611 Effect on PM 2.5 concentration in 2020 - NL

12. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200612 Spatial allocation of effect on PM 2.5 concentration RAINS/EMEP underestimates effect of measures for hot spots

13. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200613 PM2.5 concentrations along city streets in 2020

14. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200614 Conclusions Euro V and VI are essential measures to reduce PM 2.5 (and NO 2 ) in Dutch urban locations (but possibly not sufficient to meet indicative targets everywhere) RAINS/EMEP underestimates problems in hot spots RAINS/EMEP underestimates effects of measures for hot spots

15. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200615

16. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200616 Increased life expectancy RAINS-NL RAINS  LE CC CC MOBv1+5.4 days-0.22+4.2 days-0.20 MOBv2+8.6 days-0.36+6.8 days-0.34

17. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200617 Effect on NO 2 -concentration

18. Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 200618 Performance OPS