1. www.usanpn.org Signs of the Seasons and Nature's Notebook "A focus on phenology: Maine" Jake F. Weltzin, US Geological Survey Esperanza Stancioff, U Maine Extension/Sea Grant Staff of the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office Photo: ©Kevin FitzPatrick

2. What is phenology? Why is it important? What are the trends? What does this mean? Can we get organized? What are we finding? What's up for 2013…? Outline

3. MigrationSenescenceReproduction What is phenology? …study of timing of plant & animal life cycle events

4. Sensitive to change Affects critters, people and ecosystems Easy to observe Happening everywhere A "leading indicator" Why is it important?

5. Species response to climate change… None Adapt locally –Behavior –Phenology –Morphology –Genetic shift Change distribution Go extinct!

6. “Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007) Why is it important?

7. Phenology for many organisms is changing… Parmesan and Yohe 2003 Nature Parmesan and Yohe Analysis of 677 species Long-term datasets 62% have advanced timing Camille Parmesan What are the trends?

8. Primack et al. NYT Op-Ed; April 19, 2012 Thoreau

9. Earlier butterflies… What are the trends? Field skipper Fotolia Red admiral Forister and Shapiro 2003 GCB Steve Scott Both species: 1 day earlier/year

10. 30 May 186830 May 2005 Lowell Cemetery, MA Photos courtesy of A. Miller-Rushing Many lines of evidence… What are the trends?

11. NASA Earth Observatory; April 19, 2012 Trends vary spatially…

12. Trends vary spatially, over time... What are the trends? Change in timing of spring, 1982 - 2005 Zhang et al. 2007 GRL

13. Change in spring timing (days/decade) N = 203 Parmesan 2007 GCB Trends vary by type of organism… What are the trends?

14. English Oak Winter Moth Pied Flycatcher Both et al. 2006 Nature EARLIER SAME TIME EACH YEAR EARLIER A three-way mismatch… What does this mean?

15. Socio-cultural events out of sync… Peak bloom was March 20

16. What does this mean? Humans must understand, and must adapt…

17. Nature’s Notebook is a national plant and animal phenology observation program a project of the USA-NPN Can we get organized?

18. We are… Scientists Government agencies Non-profit groups Tribes Educators Learners of all ages You… Can we get organized?

19. Tracking… 100s of plant and animal species Engaging… 1,000s of scientist and citizen observers Observing… 10,000s of organisms © B. Cole a project of the USA-NPN Can we get organized?

20. What are we finding? SOS Participant Data Contribution 71,893 records Data for 54 species (plants + animals) SOS participants

21. What are we finding? Your SOS Indicator Species SOS participants

22. What are we finding? 2012: warmest March ever recorded in US > 15,000 warm temperature records broken 1 st quarter also warmest on record http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/3

23. What are we finding? American robin Dates of “yes” reports for Active individuals Day of year 20112012 June 15 May 28 Earlier in 2012 than 2011: Active individuals Calls or song Feeding Fruit/seed consumption Insect consumption Not different between 2012 and 2011: Nest building Singing males SOS participants

24. What are we finding? Red maple 2011 2012 Apr 20 May 10 First documented “yes” for leaf-out phenophases Day of year Across Maine

25. What are we finding? Deciduous trees Red maple, sugar maple + (northern red oak, white oak and American beech) 20112012 Apr 20 May 10 First documented “yes” for leaf-out phenophases Day of year Across Maine

26. What are we finding? Apr 10 May 30 Apr 20 May 10 May 20 Apr 30 Year First reported “First leaf” cloned lilac (Syringa chinensis) Common and cloned lilacs are similar Across US

27. What are we finding? Courtesy: Mark Schwartz Across US SI-x First Bloom Date Anomalies, 1900-2012 Common and cloned lilacs are similar

28. Red maple (A. rubrum) Jeong et al., Geophysical Research Letters 2013 What are we finding? Future budburst dates depend on CO 2 emissions

29. Jeong et al., Geophysical Research Letters 2013 What are we finding? Greatest changes in budburst at northern latitudes 2080-2099 period

30. What's up for 2013? Are trees leafing out earlier now than in the past? Do trees leaf out at different times across New England? Researchers at Boston University are hoping to answer these questions by comparing observations of deciduous tree phenology collected by Nature’s Notebook observers to historical records. You can help out by continuing to track red maple (Acer rubrum) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum). The observations you submit to Nature’s Notebook directly contribute to this research! Dr. Richard Primack Dr. Libby Ellwood www.usanpn.org/nelop Northeast Leaf-Out Project

31. Signs of the Seasons Partnerships make it happen…