1. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri Roberta Costa Dias Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri Roberta Costa Dias Climate Variability, Land Use and Malaria in the Amazon: Preliminary Results from the State of Roraima, Brazil. Climate Variability, Land Use and Malaria in the Amazon: Preliminary Results from the State of Roraima, Brazil. Program on Global Environmental Changes and Health Department of Biological Sciences National School of Public Health Oswaldo Cruz Foundation Program on Global Environmental Changes and Health Department of Biological Sciences National School of Public Health Oswaldo Cruz Foundation by

2. Program on Global Environmental Changes and Health

3. VECTOR–BORNE DISEASE INCIDENCE eg. malaria VECTOR–BORNE DISEASE INCIDENCE eg. malaria PRECIPITATION ANOMALY VECTOR POPULATION DENSITY CLIMATE SYSTEM VARIABILITY Physical Linkages Possible Associations

4. LIFE–CYCLE OF MALARIA PARASITE AND VECTORS LAND USE PRACTICE DEFORESTATION INCREASE IN MALARIA INCIDENCE INCREASE IN MEAN TEMPERATURE Physical Linkages Possible Associations

5. Precipitation Anomaly Deforestation CLIMATE Hydrological Cycle Forest Fires LAND USE PHYSICAL PARAMETERS eg. temperature; humidity VECTOR BIOLOGY eg. reproduction; growth; longevity MALARIA INCIDENCE Demography Behaviour Demography Behaviour

6. Conceptual Model for the Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability on Infectious Diseases PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS BIOLOGY OF VECTORS AND DISEASE AGENTS Vector control Treatment of cases Precipitation Temperature Runoff Relative humidity Changes in habitats Changes in animal reservoirs Change in microclimates DEMOGRAPHY BEHAVIOUR INCOME MOBILITY CULTURE INFORMATION OCCUPATION INSTITUTIONS DEMOGRAPHY BEHAVIOUR INCOME MOBILITY CULTURE INFORMATION OCCUPATION INSTITUTIONS HUMAN EXPOSURE INFECTIOUS DISEASES CLIMATE VARIABILITY LAND COVER CHANGES LAND USE PRACTICES HYDRO–METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS

7. Climate System Meteorological Variables Precipitation DECREASE IN MALARIA INCREASE IN MALARIA OUTBREAKS OF PLAGUE OUTBREAKS OF LEPTOSPIROSIS MOSQUITO LARVAE WASHED AWAY MOSQUITO BREEDING INCREASE IN POPULATION OF RODENTS (RESERVOIR) POOR DRAINAGE RUNOFF RAINFOREST POOLS SEMI-ARID INCREASE IN ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY SEMI-ARID POOR CARBAGE DISPOSAL URBAN SLUMS

8. Roraima

9. Annual Precipitations in the Stations of S. M. Boiacu, Fé e Esperança and Maloca do Contão

10. Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e Faz. São João, 1985–1990

11. Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e Faz. São João, 1990–1995

12. Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações de Surucucu e Fé e Esperança, 1985–1990

13. Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e SOI, 1980–1985

14. Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e SOI, 1985–1990

15. Methodology ( I ) I – Malaria Rate per Month for Each Municipality:  2 municipalities up to 1983  8 municipalities from 1984 to 1996  15 municipalities after 1996 II – Precipitation Data from 51 Rain Gauge Stations:  15 with reliable data from 1980 onwards

16. Methodology ( II )  To compare ENSO indices (SOI; SST3) with malaria incidence at state and municipal level.  To compare rainfall intensity and duration with malaria incidence (measured by IPA) for every municipality.

18. Annual Parasite Index for the State of Roraima – 1980–1998

22. Annual Parasite Index for Calendar Year and June/May Periods in Roraima (1980-1990)

23. IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima 1980 a 1985

24. IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima 1985-1990

25. IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima 1991-1998

26. Malária x Precipitação em Bonfim 1985–1990

27. Malária x Precipitação em S. M. Boiacu 1985–1990

28. Methodology ( III )  To perform a cluster analysis of rain gauge stations from historical precipitation data.  To match the precipitation data above with the dominant ecosystem in order to have specific ECOREGIONS defined.  To analyze the malaria incidence data for each ecoregion as related to climate variation, land use/demographic events and disease control activities.

29. Conclusions  Malaria in Roraima is an endemic disease with a seasonal pattern: the high transmission season is November through January and the low transmission period from June to August.  Malaria incidence in RR decreases with ENSO due to the low humidity associated with the precipitation anomaly (drought).