1. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Flood Risk Management and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Actions for Change David Moser 1, Martin Schultz 2, Todd Bridges 2 and Brian Harper 1 US Army Corps of Engineers 1. Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA 2. Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability Toronto, Canada May 6-8, 2008

2. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Outline Twelve Actions for Change Risk-informed decision framework (RIDF) for Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration (LaCPR) Project. Illustrative example: –How risks, costs, and other tradeoffs are evaluated. –How risk and uncertainty is incorporated into the decision process. –How stakeholder preferences are considered. How RIDF serves the Actions for Change

3. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Actions for Change (1-8): Systems and Risk-Based Approaches 1.Employ an integrated, systems-based approach 2.Employ risk-based concepts in planning and design 3.Continuously reassess and update policy 4.Employ dynamic independent review 5.Employ adaptive planning and engineering systems 6.Focus on sustainability 7.Review and inspect completed works 8.Assess and modify organizational behavior

4. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Actions for Change (9-12): Communication and Professionalism Communication: 9.Effectively communicate risk 10.Involve the public in developing risk reduction strategies Professionalism: 11.Manage and enhance technical expertise and professionalism 12.Invest in research

5. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Project (LaCPR) “…develop and present a full range of flood, coastal, and hurricane protection measures exclusive of normal policy considerations for south Louisiana.” Factors not restricted to of national economic benefits and costs. Consider full range of risks to people, cultural heritage, environment, property, and economy as well as project costs. Five Planning Units in So. Louisiana Charge:

6. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Risk-Informed Decision Framework Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Identify plan that maximizes utility and optimizes the level of risk reduction given preferences Provides a means to: –Make tradeoffs between risks, costs, and other decision outcomes –Enhance transparency –Account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty –Address stakeholder preferences and values

7. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Steps of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 1.Identify decision alternatives 2.Develop an objectives hierarchy and choose performance metrics 3.Assess preferences over objectives 4.Model performance of decision alternatives 5.Evaluate multi-attribute utility scores 6.Choose alternative that maximizes expected utility 7.Sensitivity analysis

8. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Illustrative Example Nine (9) flood risk-reduction alternatives and a no-action alternative Five (5) decision objectives and eight (8) performance metrics Three (3) uncertain planning assumptions –Stage frequency curve (ADCIRC Model) –Development pattern (employment growth rate and population distribution) –Rate of relative sea-level rise

9. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Objectives Hierarchy and Metrics Super-objectivesSub-objectivesPerformance Metric Maximize human health and safety Minimize life loss & health impacts among residents 1 Risk to population within the inundation footprint (n) Minimize economic losses from storm surge Minimize residential and commercial property losses 2 Risk to residential and commercial property ($) Minimize disruptions to the local economy 3 Risk to gross regional sales output ($) Minimize cost Minimize the cost of risk reduction projects 4Life-cycle project costs ($) Minimize environmental impacts Maximize wetland acreage5 Net change in wetland acreage (acres) Promote a sustainable ecosystem 6Spatial integrity index Minimize indirect impacts7Indirect impacts index Minimize other social effects Sustain cultural heritage8 Number of unique cultural centers protected (n)

10. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Preferences and Consequences Assess stakeholder and decision maker’s preferences over objectives –Conduct interviews using an elicitation instrument to assess relative importance. –Obtain relative preference weight on the sub-objective Model decision outcomes for each alternative in terms of performance metrics

11. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Multi-Attribute Utility Utility: An aggregate measure of relative satisfaction with modeled decision outcomes given objectives –Transform metrics to a 0 (worst) to 1 (best) –Weight transformed metrics by relative importance –Compensatory Six Planning Scenarios Rate of Sea-Level Rise (Relative to Observed) Development Pattern NoneModerateHigh High employment & compact population k = 1k = 2k = 3 BAU employment & dispersed population k = 4k = 5k = 6

12. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Maximize Expected Utility: Development Pattern Relative Sea-level Rise Decision Alternatives Performance Outcome (Utility score) Uncertainty In stage frequency High None High & compact BAU & dispersed Alternative 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt n Alt N Moderate

13. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Sensitivity of the Decision Choose alternative that maximizes expected utility –Optimal level of risk reduction is the level associated with the chosen alternative given the decision maker’s preferences. How sensitive is the decision? –to stakeholder and decision maker’s preferences? –to the distribution of probability over sea-level rise scenarios? –to the pattern of development?

14. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Sensitivity to Preference Patterns BAU employment Dispersed population High employment Compact population

15. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable How sensitive is the decision to sea- level rise assumptions? BAU Employment Growth Rate and Dispersed Population

16. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Changing the Development Scenario alters the Landscape High Employment Growth Rate and Compact Population

17. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Risk-Informed Planning and the USACE Actions for Change 1.An integrated, systems-based approach to problem solving 2.Uses risk-based concepts in planning and decision making 3.Suitable for adaptive planning and engineering systems 4.Helps planners effectively communicate risks 5.Involves stakeholders in developing risk reduction strategies and decision making

18. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Back-up Slides

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20. Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Aleatory uncertainty: –Natural variability that cannot be reduced –Example is the variability in storm surge Epistemic uncertainty: –Lack of knowledge, can in principle be reduced –Examples used in modeling performance outcomes for LaCPR: Characterization of the stage frequency curve for storm surge Projections of the future rate of sea-level rise Population and employment growth rate projections

21. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Model Performance of Alternatives in Terms of Risk Metrics Calculate risk metrics under each plan –Integrate stage frequency curve w/ the damage function Characterize parameter uncertainty in the risk metrics –Integrate realizations of the stage frequency curve w/ damage function

22. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Multi-attribute Utility (U ) U Multi-attribute utility score w Preference weight on objective V(m i ) Risk-neutral value score M Metric for the objective i Index on objectives Value V(m i ) Metric (m) Averse Seeking Neutral 0 1 Value Function BestWorst

23. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Six Planning Scenarios Rate of Sea-Level Rise (Relative to Observed) Development Pattern NoneModerateHigh High employment & compact population k = 1k = 2k = 3 BAU employment & dispersed population k = 4k = 5k = 6

24. Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable Assess Preferences over Objectives 1. RANK OBJECTIVE2. RATE 1Minimize risks to residents20 2Minimize property losses20 3Minimize regional economic losses15 4Minimize project cost15 5Maximize wetland acreage10 6Promote sustainable ecosystem10 7Minimize indirect environmental impacts5 8Historic Properties Protected5 100 Stakeholder and Decision Maker’s