1. Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluating Adaptation at a National Level The UK’s Experience
Jon Elliott – Science Lead, Climate Change Adaptation
8th EIONET Workshop, 24th June 2014

2. The UK’s Nation System Adaptation Lead Mitigation Lead
Climate Services
Delivery

3. Climate Change Act - Deliverables
Climate Change Risk Assessment – CCRA
Delivered every 5 years
Consider the highest impact risks and opportunities for the UK
National Adaptation Programme – NAP
Delivered every 5 years
Deals with the risks and opportunities laid out in the CCRA
Prioritised, risk based approach
Sets a number of ‘actions’ required to address risks
Shared responsibility across government (local and national) as well as business and civil society
Adaptation Reporting Power – ARP
Gives the Secretary of State the power to require certain organisations to report on the major risks and their responses to these risks as well as progress they have made
Organisation’s responses feed into the CCRA

4. Timeline – The 5 year Cycle
Indicators

5. The National Adaptation Programme
The NAP has six chapters that broadly follow the themes in the CCRA:
Built environment
Infrastructure
Healthy and resilient communities
Agriculture and forestry
Natural environment, and
Business.
In addition a seventh chapter describes the role of local government in delivering adaptation across all sectors of society.
Each of the NAP chapters set out a vision, objectives and specific actions that will be taken to address the priority climate risks and opportunities that in the Government’s view require the most urgent attention. – A total of 31 objectives consisting of 374 specific action (125 high level).
Responsibility for completing these actions and objectives lies with the relevant government department and key members of the private and third sectors – a mainstreamed approach.
The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change has a statutory duty to report to Parliament on the UK Government’s progress against these actions and objectives.

6. Adaptation indicators – The Challenge
Measuring adaptation is highly challenging – Much harder than mitigation!
Mitigation
Adaptation
Targets and metrics
Clear national target: 80% by 2050
Standard metric exists to measure progress across all sectors (carbon emissions)
No national-level targets.
No standard metric across sectors
Uncertainty
Most emission sources identified, being monitored & addressed
Uncertainty in climate projections.
Not all risks understood
Context
Global atmosphere
Climate impacts are national, regional and local

7. Indicators
In 2015 the ASC will produce a formal report on the UK’s progress toward implementing the action in the National Adaptation Programme.
This will require the development of a number of adaptation indicators, many of which have been in development over the last four years, through the ASC’s Progress Reports.
Progress will be assessed against high priority risks as laid out in the Climate Change Risk Assessment.
The focus will be on outcome indicators and will be categorised into the following 4 categories:
Trends in exposure– factors that may be increasing the presence of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social, or environmental assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as developing in the floodplain.
Trends in vulnerability – factors that may be increasing the propensity or predisposition of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social or environmental assets to be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as the condition of infrastructure or the state of climate-sensitive wildlife habitats.
Adaptation actions – factors that are likely to be reducing vulnerability to climate risks or helping to take advantage of opportunities, such as the uptake of property-level flood protection measures or the sales of adaptation goods and services.
Realised impacts – tracking over time the actual impacts of climate hazards on the UK’s economy, society and environment, such as insured losses from flooding or the proportion of transport delays caused by severe weather. Whilst there is year-on-year variability in impacts and it will be difficult to attribute single weather events to climate change, monitoring trends in impacts will serve as a useful benchmark. Over time we may be able to ascertain whether there is a link between trends in impacts and the uptake of actions to reduce risk.

8. Indicators - Risk Assessment framework
IPCC Definition of Climate Risk
Realised impacts
Trends in vulnerability
Adaptation actions
Trends in exposure

9. Indicators – The ASC Approach
The ASC have identified and characterised over 250 indicators spread across the 7 NAP themes.
Each NAP chapter has been broken down by its key risks and opportunities.
Indicators characterised into the four groups: Exposure, vulnerability, actions and realised impacts
Data drawn from a wide range of sources:
Government statistical publications
Trade body information
Policy responses
Consultancy research
Stakeholder engagement
Mainly publically available
Commissioned research to plug gaps
Most indicators not originally designed for
adaptation
ASC running a consultation on indicators – views
welcome

10. Indicators – how they are classified
NAP Theme
Number of indicators
Built Environment 54
Infrastructure 71
Health 34
Agriculture and Forestry 32
Natural Environment 46
Business 19
Local Authority 4
The ~ 250 indicators are split by the four categories and specific risks and opportunities.
Therefore, some theme-risk categories are more represented than others.

11. Indicators – Examples Built Environment (BE) Infrastructure (IN)
Increased flooding/severe weather
Annual rate of development on flood plain
Exposure
Reduced water availability
Number/proportion of water companies with a low Security of Supply Index
Vulnerability
Intensified urban heat island effect
Area of green roofs installed
Action
Infrastructure (IN)
Volume of rail passengers/freight at risk of flooding/subsidence/coastal erosion
Number/proportion of power stations reliant on freshwater with efficient cooling systems
Increased sewer overspills
Number/proportion of water company sewer assets in poor condition
Healthy & Resilient Communities (HCR)
Increased extreme temperatures
Implementation of Heatwave Action Plan
Local authority expenditure on emergency planning and response
Other climate-related health risks
Levels of indoor damp/mould

12. Indicators - Examples Agriculture & Forestry (AF)
Potential for new crops/increased yields
Investment in research into new crops/yields
Opportunity
Reduced water availability/increased aridity
Proportion of abstraction for irrigation from catchments at risk of water scarcity
Exposure
Reduced soil productivity
Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land losing soil carbon
Vulnerability
Increased flooding/waterlogging
Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land in areas with a high likelihood of flooding
Increased pests and pathogens
Agricultural losses from pests/pathogens
Impact
Natural Environment (NE)
Changes to climate space
Area of terrestrial Priority Habitat being created/restored per year
Action
Reduction in ecosystem goods and services
Proportion/area of degraded deep peat habitats being restored
Reduced water availability/quality
Levels of nutrient enrichment in freshwater habitats
Vulnerability
Business (BUS)
Sales of adaptation goods and services
Value of exports of adaptation goods and services per year
Opportunity
Increased flooding/severe weather
Proportion/number of businesses at risk signing-up to Flood Warnings
Reduced water availability
Losses to businesses from reduced water availability
Impact
Disruption to supply chains
Proportion of UK-based companies with supply chains reliant on countries at high risk from climate change
Exposure
Local Government (LG)
Various priority risks
Proportion of local authorities who have signed up to Climate Local and/or the Cities Commitment

13. Next steps and contacts
ASC to publish 2014 progress report on July 9th
Focus for this year is infrastructure , business, health and emergency planning (‘Adapting to Climate Change: climate risks to the economy and well-being’)
Consultation on indicators to be launched to gather feedback on the ASC’s indicators as defined so far. – Identify any gaps
Statutory report on the NAP to be delivered next year (July 2015).
For further information on indicators and the Adaptation Sub Committee please contact Dave Thompson:

14. Discussion Section
Guided Questions

15. Question 1
What are the key needs and policy demands for monitoring and evaluation on adaptation and related indicators at national level?

16. Question 2
What is currently available at national level?

17. What are the main developments?
Question 3
What are the main developments?
What happens if or when data and indicators do not exist?
What innovative solutions can be found?

18. Question 4
How can countries learn from other experiences?