1. Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

2. 1.EEA Strategic futures group experience 2.Difference between scenarios and vision (types of future – tools –scenarios- future thinking process-visions) 3.How were developed scenarios for WB? 4.How was developed vision for WB? 5.Methodological approach to forward-looking assessment of water security in WB by using scenarios, some projections and vision  Overall concept  Looking from the present to the future  Looking from the future to the present  Assessing security implications related to environment (threats, risks, security&environment)

3. 1. EEA STRATEGIC FUTURES GROUP Knowladge base for forward-looking information and services /FLIS/ Information system with forward-looking components Platform of IT web based services for sharing information, reporting and interactive communciation Coopeartion with countires and other institutions Eionet network establishment and enhancment (NRC FLIS) OSCE, UNEP, ASEF, COST, regional conventions (Danube) Forward-looking assessments ◊ European scenarios (PRELUDE) ◊ Environmental integrated assessments – reports EU State of environment and outlook report 2010: Part A, Global megatrends 2015

4. EEA Land use scenarios-PRELUDE: scale of governance and markets Story and simulation approach (SaS)

5. What was done for WB region 1. some FL assessments (2006-2012) 2. Scenarios on water availability in 2060 - scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop: Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011 - scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications): participatory workshop : Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013 3. Vision on hydropower development - vision building: participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision building: Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013 5

6. Victoria University, Australia 2. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCENARIOS AND VISION

7. How to deal with the future? Zureck and Henrichs, 2007

8. Tools to deal with the future

9. Scenarios … a plausible description of how the future may unfold based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (STEEP). Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.

10. It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.

12. Visions building Visioning is a technique that is used to support a group of stakeholders in developing a shared vision of the future. The goal of visioning is to develop written and visualised statements of a community’s long term goals and strategic objectives State A (Where are we now?). The outcomes of the visioning workshop describe State B (Where do we want to be?) Through stakeholder workshops to provide the basis for a ‘road-mapping’ exercise, and is an attempt to generate a shared picture of a desirable future and way forward.

13. Vision scenarios

14. 3. How were built scenarios for WB? Scenarios on water availability in 2060 - scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop: Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011 - scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications): participatory workshop : Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013 14

15. WHERE WE ARE IN SCENARIO PROCESS?

16. 16 Worksop question: What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change and water availability? Outcomes: 1.Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until 2060 2. Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios 3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks Scenarios building workshop: "Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity” Belgrade on 24-26 October 2011

17. Define scenario question L SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS - explorative, intuitive S T E E P Identify driving forces Identify most important uncertainties S1 S3 S2 S4 Develop plausible scenarios Implications and paths, warning indicators

18. 18 1.SCENARIO QUESTION

19. 19 Group 1

20. 20 Group 2

21. 21 Group 3

22. 22 2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB: Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected  one selected at the workshop: Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable) Economic growth (investment, recovery) Real resources cost and affordability (availability)

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25. 25 SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia) Equality Quite high quality of life Good knowledge base Good environment management Integrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement, renewable energy dominating SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia) Equality Quite high quality of life Good knowledge base Good environment management Integrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement, renewable energy dominating Endless horror poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment,spiral development to negative high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of economy Endless horror poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment,spiral development to negative high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of economy Horror without end poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly Horror without end poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan Green and rich and can tackle Intensive resource use, controlled, technology driven Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan Green and rich and can tackle Intensive resource use, controlled, technology driven Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports Climate change impacts Economic growth Sustainable high low Un-sustainable 3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios

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27. 4. How was developed vision for WB ? Vision on hydropower development 2030 - participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision building: Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013 27

28. Vision building tool, 7FP project VOLANTE /EU land use scenarios (presentation from Alterra, NL)

32. RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 1

33. RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 2

35. RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 3

36. Main elements for input of the common vision (preliminary): Exploitation of hydro potential in the region should continue in the context of the expand of general energy production contributing to better self-sufficiency and possible exports. Present water uses should not be endangered and needs for other water uses development should be fulfilled. Hydropower development represents also some risks to biodiversity, river ecology, extreme events, financial investments etc. Benefits-risks analyses and sustainable development criteria should be the bases for development. Strong regional and international cooperation, absence of conflicts and strong institutional setting will support sustainable development of hydropower and other water uses on the bases of domestic knowledge and technologies while integrating other (especially EU) knowledge, legislation and experience. It will contribute also to reduction of poverty and enhancing quality of life ( recreation, food supply, water supply). Conflicts within and between the regions are representing threats to sustainable development and could have its negative effect in all emphasized issues.

37. Methodological approach for the project forward-looking assessment "Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan"

38. Scenarios: Climate change impacts Economic development 1 The good society 2 Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral STATE Past to present developments THREATS and RISKS FUTURE 2060 water resources use Desired vision of hydropower development 2030 (stakeholders workshop) SUMMARRY What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications? RESPONSE management options of risks management of water resources in conjunction to renewable energy planning economic connection between water and power resources (prising…) green economy stakeholders workshop -Water availability for human use -Environment related -Extreme events -Food security -Health -Conflicts

39. 1 The good society 2Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral D r i v i n g f o r c e s SCENARIOS – explorative, qualitative WATER AVAILABILITY projections WATER AVAILABILITY projections HP DEVELOPMENT SECURITY IMPLICATIONS for each scenario: Water availability for human use Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts SECURITY IMPLICATIONS for each scenario: Water availability for human use Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts Looking from the present to the future indicators

40. Desired vision for HP Normative, qualitative (some qualiative elements Desired vision for HP Normative, qualitative (some qualiative elements Windtunelling of the vision through 4 scenarios STATE of water resources What can be done now to hedge the risks? STATE of water resources What can be done now to hedge the risks? THREATS and RISKS SUMMARRY What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications? What are some of possible RESPONSES to hedge the risks? Looking from the future to present Security implications: Water availability for human Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts Security implications: Water availability for human Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts ?

41. WB scenarios: 1 The good society 2Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral Land use parameters 1 The good society 2Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral 8 Regional Climate Models 24 results (4 scenarios x 8 models) Water quantity Modelling Range of changes of water quantity in the future in WB (per year, per season) We will have in 2030 15% less water. If we want more HP in our vision this means risk. In 2060/2100 we will have 30% less water EXAMPLE of interpretation of LU parameters in qualitative scenarios Agriculture in WB scenarios (qualit. description) 1 The good society 2Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral Land use parameters: agriculture use (qualit. description +quant. indication) 1 The good society + 5% 2Techno garden in Balkans – 3% 3 Run to the hills + 20% 4Downward spiral + 30% For LU quantitative indication use Prelude where possible Example of outcome Projections of scenarios impacts to water quantity Translating between quality and quantity

42. Environment security - definition The security of individuals, communities, nation-states, and the global community as a whole is increasingly jeopardised because of unpremeditated environmental, non-military, threats. Environmental security is seen as protection capability of societal systems (communities) to withstand threats of (1)environmental asset scarcity, (2)environmental risks or adverse changes, and (3)environment related tensions and conflicts. R.Perelet (1994)  "The environment: towards a sustainable future”  Millenium project 42

43. Definitions used so far in the project: For each scenario define threats that can jeopardize water availability Define risks: risk is related to the impact of threat and vulnerability of water. Participants should think how big risk is in the region in relation to threat add define high, medium and low risks to water in Western Balkans. They can also provide some sub regional specifications, for example on the coast, in the cites in specific countries, etc. Security is to withstand threats. Risks?

44. 44 Assessment of eleven global megatrends (EEA SOER 2010) impacting European region, Global megatrend on climate change: Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change Accelerating climate change impacts will imperil food and water supplies, human health and harm terrestrial and marine life. Europe may see also more human migrations, changes in migratory species and aggravated pressure on resources availability. Environmental changes Degradation Environmental stress Resources scarcity/abundance Opportunity for prevention, mitigation, adaptation Economic and social context and impacts Environment related security impacts Ecological security, health risks water security, food security, energy security, resource security Human security environment related tensions and conflicts Destabilisation and conflicts (civil unrest, wars, international instability) Environment and security assessment

45. Scenario 1 NAME RISK THREATS to risk (according to STEEP categories) Risk description: -high, medium, low - time frame of appearance (long term-50 years and more, short term ) GOALS Shortages of water in coastal cities Water infrastructure out dated (technological) and new not put in place to follow developments (economical, political) Increased tourism (economical) Decreased precipitation (environmental) High Long term 1. revitalise spatial planning system (political) 2. introduce new and more efficient technologies …. Threats and risks in WB scenarios

46. RISKS on water availability in Western Balkans  risks of spatially and temporally uneven water supply  changing climate patterns and extreme events  water management decisions such as planned cuts in water storage and  increasing use of hydropower.  risk of shortages of good quality drinking water, particularly in coastal and urban regions  risks to agricultural, industrial and transport sectors  indirect water-related risks resulting from climate change:  poverty, health and conflict arising from competition for scarce water resources. 46

47. THANK YOU

48. Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns: 48 forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular the role of consumption and production patterns Different futures State Driving forces 2010

49. Caucasus 49 Global workshop OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of climate change impacts Regional workshops Global driving forcesRegional Scenarios Eastern Europe Food security Western Balkans Water availability Arctic Mediterranean Central Asia Water-energy- agriculture nexus 2010 20112013 Regional to Global workshop Impacts to security Assessment; Environment and security key messages 2012 SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for better understanding environment and security issues 2011

50. 50 Why do we need to look into the future?  Policy making needs to uphold long term sustainability goals with suitable approaches and precautionary actions Education / Public Information Environment forward-looking assessment Science / Research Strategic Planning / Decision Support  We face very dynamic changes and increasing complex environment

51. Slide 51 Typology of scenarios  Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios exploratory scenarios  present -> future  to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments  to test impacts of implementing specific policies anticipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios)  present <- future  to investigate how specific end state can be reached  to show how to achieve environmental targets

52. Forecasts versus Foresight 13 December 2010 USAF/FOI Current Realities (mental maps) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images FORESIGHT The PresentThe Path The Future FORECAST

53. Some tools for exploring options for policy decisions, impacts and effectiveness EX ANTE ANALYSES Provide options for the future and about the impact of our actions  SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS  IMPACT ASSESSMENT  COST BENEFIT ANALYSES STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION  to elicit a stakeholder response,  deep involvement in the process of options development – better commitment to final policy decisions. EX POST ANALYSES EEA published work n this area:  Packaging waste management (se EEA report)  Urban waste water treatment policies (see EEA report)  Use of market based instruments (see EEA report)

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55. Pathways to reach the goals S1 good society: 1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people. Legislation, social areas, economy for kick off-technology-economy instruments, environment S2 technogarden : Pathways to safe water supply: Political stability, Education, Renewable energy, Green technologies, Production, Green agriculture, Water treatment, Tourism, Recycle and reuse, R&D support, Good decisions “Economy  Politics  youth knowledge development” S3 and S4 up to hills and downward spiral: The foundation of pathways is in good governance and political stability and everything starts from there. pathway also consists of:  rewards and punishment depending on behaviour,  education, improve people’s awareness of environment, environmental workshops,  expert base decision making,  technological improvement,  increase water storage capacity,  economic development. “In order to reach our goals we must not bite more than we can chew”. 55