1. Mitigation in an energy constrained world - a workshop Martin Birley BirleyHIA www.BirleyHIA.co.uk

2. © BirleyHIA 2 Content Climate change Peak oil Implications for HIA –Attitude –Practice Workshop

3. Quotations from climate experts It’s now It’s us It’s worse

4. Annual effect of climate change now 300,000 dead 325 million seriously affected 500 million at extreme risk 4 billion people vulnerable © BirleyHIA 4 Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) www.ghfgeneva.org www.ghfgeneva.org

5. Climate change Science<350ppm Politics>450ppm © BirleyHIA 5 Unacceptable risk

6. Arctic sea ice Positive feedback

7. Energy scarcity “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable.” International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook, Nov 2008

8. Energy scarcity - Peak oil © BirleyHIA 8 -10,000 years+10,000 years 200 years

9. Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO Global oil discovery peak: 1965

10. Positive feedback © BirleyHIA 10 Peak Oil Climate change

11. Source: David Murphy – The Oil Drum. http://tinyurl.com/l5gpcb

12. Energy intensity © BirleyHIA 12

13. Energy gap UK BirleyHIA 13 Emissions, Availability Renewables Policy/project lifetime Gap

14. Health impacts of CC and Peak Oil Increased inequality Reduced life expectancy Failure of medical services War Starvation Economic collapse BirleyHIA 14 Amplify existing health risks and inequalities

15. HIA implications Oil addiction Carbon reduction © BirleyHIA 15

16. Oil addiction K nowledge A ttitudes and beliefs P ractice BirleyHIA 16

17. Attitudes and beliefs BirleyHIA 17 Denial Despair Magical Rescue Transition Emotions Fear Hope Inaction

18. Health co-benefits of change BirleyHIA 18 Housing planned around public transport, cycling, local shops and home- working Reduce premature death from air pollution Improved physical, social and mental health and well-being

19. Mitigation examples © BirleyHIA 19 Fossil-fuel basedNon fossil-fuel based Diesel powered water management Wind powered water management

20. Workshop questions What are the probable emotional responses to the science? What attitudes and beliefs follow from the emotional responses? How will such attitudes and beliefs influence the practice of HIA? © BirleyHIA 20

21. You may like to consider Assumptions made in HIAs about trends in the availability of energy, climate change or emissions Analysis of health outcomes under different climate or energy regimes Recommendations for mitigation and enhancement of health impacts when constrained by energy/climate issues Other approaches to carrying out the HIA itself that take account of cumulative effects/climate change/energy scarcity © BirleyHIA 21

22. © BirleyHIA 22 END