1. ” Understand the Economics of Real Help Systems By Karl Robinson Stoke-on-Trent City Council 17 th October 2013

2. What Does Success Look Like? Problems We Wanted to Solve – Does this way of working improve things for our residents? – Is this way of working Affordable and Scalable? – Will it reduce demand on the whole system? – What are the links to the Cross Economy system and the Problems they have to solve e.g. Health – Reducing the demand on A&E admissions Police –Reducing the number of both uniformed and non uniformed staff without compromising the service Social Care – Getting better results with less resources i.e. impact of having Children in Care

3. Understand the Customer “C”“W”

4. Demands in Context

5. Comparing Old and New Costs We needed a way to understand the costs both before and after working with citizens in a different way. Options We Explored: – Develop a new cost model Too complex and time consuming to produce a robust model; – Identify an already available cost model that is: Already validated and nationally recognised; Easy to understand and adapt as we learn more about systemic economics Solution we Identified The DFE Cost Calculator Model

6. The Approach To Understanding Costs Old World – Identify all activity that had been carried out on individual citizens for a 2 year period prior to working with them in a different way – Collect all this data across partner agencies New World – Activity based on resolving ‘Demand in Context’ at individual level – People presenting through: Rent Arrears, Police, etc Locality = 1 Ward in Little Chell and Stanfields

7. Result: Cost Comparison at Individual Level

8. Developing the Measures Framework Approach – Identify set key strategic measures 35 key measures identified including Rent Arrears no’s, Rent Arrears £’s, Police ASB No’s, Rent Notices of Serving Possession (NOSP’s), etc – Feed in cases to the Locality Team from Little Chell and Stanfields – Produce data to compare Little Chell and Stanfields with City wide and 2 control groups in capability chart form to understand how the new way of working impacts on the measures

9. What we Learnt from the Measures Strategic Measures Individual Measures ? How do we know who to intervene with? Can we make these people visible? - The Missing Link Tier 2

10. The Tier 2 Matrix

11. Tier 2 Challenges Data Sharing Partner Data Measuring changes to cases meeting Rebalance Me triggers

12. Tier 1 – Individual Outcomes/ Economics Tier 2 - Geography Capacity /Scalability Tier 3 – Strategic Demand Reduction & Cost Removal 16 % 75 % I could go either way I am in balance but I need a little help 6% I am in need of serious help Our New Measures Framework

13. Tier 3 Tier 2 Tier 1

14. What Does the Measures Framework Tell Us About Working in the New Way?

15. Impact on the Strategic Measures – Tier 3

16. Rent Arrears - Housing tenants in arrears (amount) City Pilot Geography Comparative Geography 1Comparative Geography 2 0.8% Increase 5.5% decrease 13.9% decrease 1.27% decrease

17. Rent NOSPs City 6.1% increase 1.56% decrease 33% increase No change Comparative Geography 1Comparative Geography 2 Pilot Geography

18. Police ASB reported cases City ASB 21% increase 5.2% decrease 5.9% increase 23.8% increase Comparative Geography 1Comparative Geography 2 Pilot Geography

19. Crime reported cases City Crime 8.8% increase No change 9.2% increase 14.9% increase Comparative Geography 1Comparative Geography 2 Pilot Geography

20. Impact at a Systems Economic Level – Tier 1

21. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics  99%  174%  10%  80%  95%  150% Pre: 0 Post: 4

22. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics Police 4% Pre Intervention ActivityPost Intervention Activity Fire 11%

23. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics

24. Pre Intervention ActivityPost Intervention Activity Police 31% NHS 13% Local Auth. 6% Criminal Justice System 49% Fire Service 1% Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics

25. Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases Pre-Intervention Activity (Cumulative) Post-Intervention Activity (Cumulative) Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

26. Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases 1,480 Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

27. Difference : 470 Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases 1,480 1,010 Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

28. Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

29. Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases £337,000 Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

30. Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases Difference : £104,000 £337,000 £233,000 Tier 1 – Activity and Economics

31. Is it Scalable?

32. Tier 2 – Matrix Key findings from the matrix: The data suggests that there is a total potential for 5482 Rebalance Me cases across the city. Using the model of 16 ongoing cases per worker, we would need 368 workers to deal with these cases over a 12 month period. Using the model of 16 cases per worker, we would need 119 staff to deal with the total caseload over three years. For the test area of Little Chell and Stanfields, there are 176 cases now identified through the matrix. 1.We can estimate the total potential caseload and demand types across any geography from a street to whole city level 2.We can use the matrix to identify and prioritise caseloads for allocation to staff, ensuring we can approach those who need help, rather than relying on picking them up through a presenting demand anywhere within the system

33. Triangle of Need 1,205 1% 18,052 17% 88,243 82% I am living my life well I could go either way I’m in need of serious help.

34. Is It Affordable?

35. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Economic Comparison (liner chart over time): £337,000 £233,000 Difference : £104,000

36. A Summary of the Potential Savings The model estimates savings of around £104,000 for the seven cases reflected. This would equate to an average saving of £14,857 per case. Potential savings of around £81.5m (across the partnership) that could be delivered in line with roll-in plan. Note – Small sample size and needs to be validated as cases are added into the analysis to make it more statistically robust. – This goes back to one of the data sharing issues we highlighted earlier.