1. www.swslim.org.uk Recession Briefing NIACE Seminar January 2010 Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM

2. www.swslim.org.uk UK GDP Source: ONS

3. www.swslim.org.uk Unemployment, SW Source: ONS / BBC 1973-76 1990-93 1979-83

4. www.swslim.org.uk Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS Estimates 19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre- recession levels We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth

5. www.swslim.org.uk Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS

6. www.swslim.org.uk LFS & Claimant Count Unemployment, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment

7. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS % Working age population

8. www.swslim.org.uk Migration Source: LFS National Insurance Number Registrations

9. www.swslim.org.uk Involuntary part-time working Source: LFS Number of people in the South West working part-time because they can't find a full-time job

10. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS All people aged 16+

11. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Rates Source: LFS Annual Change in % Employment Rates by Age Group, South West, to March 2009

12. www.swslim.org.uk ILO Unemployment Source: LFS

13. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Rate, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment, Sept – Nov 2009

14. www.swslim.org.uk Claimant Count Rates by region Source: JC+ / NOMIS

15. www.swslim.org.uk Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

16. www.swslim.org.uk Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

17. www.swslim.org.uk Vacancies Source: JC+ / NOMIS Notified to Jobcentre plus, monthly, SW

18. www.swslim.org.uk Claimants per vacancy - SW Source: JC+ / NOMIS

19. www.swslim.org.uk Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS

20. www.swslim.org.uk Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS Proportion of claimants leaving JSA each month, by duration of unemployment, April 2008 to Present

21. www.swslim.org.uk Employment Rates Source: LFS South West by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100

22. www.swslim.org.uk Gender – Claimant Count Source: JC+ / NOMIS South West Claimant Count by gender

23. www.swslim.org.uk Impact on Sectors Source: JC+ administrative data

24. www.swslim.org.uk Source: JC+ / NOMIS Age – Claimant Count South West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100

25. www.swslim.org.uk Claimant Count by Age Source: NOMIS / JC+ + 3% of age band

26. www.swslim.org.uk LFS Unemployment Source: NOMIS / JC+ 16 to 24 year olds, UK & English Regions

27. www.swslim.org.uk Impact on occupations Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009 % Claimants% Employment Managers and Senior Officials 6%16% Professional Occupations 5%12% Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 7%15% Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 11% Skilled Trades Occupations 13%12% Personal Service Occupations 5%9% Sales and Customer Service occupations 15%8% Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 11%6% Elementary Occupations 27%11%

28. www.swslim.org.uk Projected change in employment by occupation, 2007 - 2017 Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009