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1 The Effects of Population Growth on the Achievement of the MDG on Child Mortality in Urban Sub- Saharan Africa Memorandum Submitted to the UK APPG-PDRH By APHRC, Nairobi, Kenya Dr Jean-Christophe Fotso, Dr Alex Ezeh Dr Nyovani Madise, and Mr James Ciera London, UK, June 5, 2006
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2 Is SSA on Target to Meeting the MDG? Current and projected trends in under-five mortality in SSA Source: UNICEF (data online) -13% -67%
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3 Why Should we Focus on Urban Areas? Urban explosion amidst declining economies 15% in 1950; 32% in 1990; 54% in 2030 Urban population growth of 4.7% in 1980-2000 Decline in per capita GDP by 0.8% Increasing proportion of urban dwellers living below the poverty line in slums and shantytowns Unsafe drinking water and poor environmental sanitation Limited access to health facilities Increased susceptibility of slum children to various health problems
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4 The Evidence
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5 Implications Failing to target the urban poor: Pulling down of national average of health indicators Move countries away from achieving the MDG on child mortality Newly assembled evidence indicates: Gradual shift in the locus of poverty from rural to urban areas Higher levels of morbidity and mortality among urban poor children than among their rural counterparts (Nairobi, Kenya)
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6 Case Study in Nairobi, Kenya
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7 Poor-rich fertility gaps Source: Kenya DHS 2003
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8 Conclusion SSA is not on target to meet the MDG on child mortality Arouse attention and commitment on urban population growth in SSA and the associated growing urban poverty Commitment of APHRC to: Improving the well-being of populations through policy-relevant research on population & health Key area of work: Clarifying the changing linkages between urbanization, poverty and health in SSA
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9 Thank you
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