1. Outcomes from the workshop: "Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade, Serbia, 24-26 October 2011 Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, 11-13 February 2013 Risks and threats on water availability in western Balkan SESSION 3: getting to know WB scenarios Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

2. Environment security - definition The security of individuals, communities, nation-states, and the global community as a whole is increasingly jeopardised because of unpremeditated environmental, non-military, threats. Environmental security is seen as protection capability of societal systems (communities) to withstand threats of (1)environmental asset scarcity, (2)environmental risks or adverse changes, and (3)environment related tensions and conflicts. R.Perelet (1994) "The environment: towards a sustainable future” Millenium project 2

3. 3 Assessment of eleven global megatrends (EEA SOER 2010) impacting European region Global megatrend on climate change: Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change Accelerating climate change impacts will imperil food and water supplies, human health and harm terrestrial and marine life. Europe may see also more human migrations, changes in migratory species and aggravated pressure on resources availability. Environmental changes Degradation Environmental stress Resources scarcity/abundance Opportunity for prevention, mitigation, adaptation Economic and social context and impacts Environment related security impacts Ecological security, health risks water security, food security, energy security, resource security Human security environment related tensions and conflicts Destabilisation and conflicts (civil unrest, wars, international instability)

4. RISKS on water availability in Western Balkans risks of spatially and temporally uneven water supply changing climate patterns and extreme events water management decisions such as planned cuts in water storage and increasing use of hydropower. risk of shortages of good quality drinking water, particularly in coastal and urban regions risks to agricultural, industrial and transport sectors indirect water-related risks resulting from climate change: poverty, health and conflict arising from competition for scarce water resources. 4

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6. Pathways to reach the goals S1 good society: 1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people. Legislation, social areas, economy for kick off-technology-economy instruments, environment S2 technogarden : Pathways to safe water supply: Political stability, Education, Renewable energy, Green technologies, Production, Green agriculture, Water treatment, Tourism, Recycle and reuse, R&D support, Good decisions “Economy  Politics  youth knowledge development” S3 and S4 up to hills and downward spiral: The foundation of pathways is in good governance and political stability and everything starts from there. pathway also consists of: rewards and punishment depending on behaviour, education, improve people’s awareness of environment, environmental workshops, expert base decision making, technological improvement, increase water storage capacity, economic development. “In order to reach our goals we must not bite more than we can chew”. 6

7. ENVSEC-EEA: Integrating the environment and sustainability in energy policies 7 Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova ( 2009) To provide options on improving policies and national energy planning system for a design of sustainable oriented energy strategies and plans: with the use of scenarios Followed by policy recommendations for countries To raise awareness and to develop capacity of national specialists to integrate environmental and sustainability considerations in energy- related strategic initiatives