1. Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development

2. Aims of the project Study will encourage future discussions and actions in Western Balkans by providing explorative analyses of possible security implications of future water use in the region with the focus on hydropower development. Security implications: Water availability for human use, environment related, extreme events, food security, energy security, health, conflicts Study will also bring in the assessment the stakeholders vision of hydropower development in the region in the context of different possible threats and risk arising from explorative scenarios. Study will reflect on management options

3. present STATE of water resources THREATS and RISKS Scenarios: 1 The good society 2 Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral Climate change impacts Economic development FUTURE water resources use Desired vision of hydropower development (stakeholders workshop) SUMMARRY What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications? RESPONSE management options of risks management of water resources in conjunction to renewable energy planning economic connection between water and power resources (prising…) green economy

4. Project plan Timing: October 2012-December 2013 ETC Water and EEA Forward-looking assessment method: –Use of existing scenarios built at stakeholders workshop in 2010 on cc impacts and water availability (EEA/OSCE) –Stakeholders vision on hydropower development (use of visions canvas tool) 2 workshops: –January 2013: scenarios refinement and vision building (30 participants - 3 per WB country, Slovenia-tbc) –May/June 2013: key messages (10 participants, place tbd) Report for countries consultation September/October 2013 and publication December 2013

5. Rational for thematic focus Water use and climate change impacts are common denominators for many possible security threats identified in studies: EEA, UNEP,EEA-OSCE, WWF Hydropower development is of utmost interest of the international corporations and financial institutions Hydropower development is major driver for development in many WB countries (Montenegro, BiH) Hydropower development is accompanied by the risks to environment (river ecosystems, protected natural areas)

6. Hydropower plants collide with areas of high natural value

7. Poverty Negative development Deteriorated environment High water scarcity Extreme events not managed leading to negative development Poverty, Hopelessness Ecosystems recovery Drinking water deficit, scarcity in general Water use in agriculture mainly Equality Quite high quality of life Good knowledge base Good environment management Integrated water management Strong policies Cross border agreements, Renewable energy dominating Green and richer Can tackle intensive resource use Controlled, technology driven Ground water drop Import of water from Russia Energy dependent on imports Scenarios as an explorative framework for impact of climate change to water availability in Western Balkan region, OSCE-EEA 2010

8. 1 The good society 2Techno garden in Balkans 3 Run to the hills 4Downward spiral Climate change impacts Economic development D r i v i n g f o r c e s SCENARIOS WATER USE HP DEVELOPMENT SECURITY IMPLICATIONS: Water availability for human use Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts SECURITY IMPLICATIONS: Water availability for human use Environment related Extreme events Food security Health conflicts Looking from the present to the future

9. STATE of water resources: Big potential for HP STATE of water resources: Big potential for HP THREATS and RISKS Manifested through 4 scenarios THREATS and RISKS Manifested through 4 scenarios FUTURE water resources use 4 scenarios SUMMARRY What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications? RESPONSE to vision in the context of 4 scenarios Desired vision for HP Looking from the future to the present