1. Evaluating risks and opportunities while protecting Florida’s environment USGS Florida Activities Related to Climate Change, Energy Resources, And New Technologies Robert A. Renken Associate Director for Hydrologic Studies U.S. Geological Survey Fort Lauderdale Office

2. Overwhelming Scientific Consensus The National Academy of Sciences (2005) “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change.” National Security and the Threat of Climate Change--CNA Corp (2007) for Dept of Defense “The nature and pace of climate change are grave and pose grave implications for U.S. national security.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) … “unequivocally” due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” U. S. Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.1 (2009) “Climate warming will raise sea levels and potentially increase storms, resulting in increased erosion, wetland loss, salt water intrusion. Actions and plans are needed at national and state levels for adaptation to future climate conditions.”

3. Past 10,000 Years Greenhouse gases

4. Atmospheric change in the past 100 years: Global mean temperature increase: 0.74 degrees C over past 100 yrs. 0.65 degrees C over past 5 years

5. 1850 2000 The changing landscape factor

6. Climate change in the Southeastern US What can we expect? Increased air and water temperatures will create stress for humans, plants and animals Decreased water availability Increased coastal storm intensity, storm surge, and long-term sea level rise Ecological thresholds will be crossed – major disruptions to ecosystems US Climate Research Program SAP 4.1, 2009

7. Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center Southeastern US Precipitation Trends

8. Historic Eustatic Sea-Level Rise Sea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable environments show a rise of around 20 centimeters per century (2 mm/year). Source: IPCC 2001

9. Modified from IPCC 2007 report Increasing Range in Sea-Level Rise Projections Since 2007 2007 IPCC Sea Level Rise Median Projection > 6 meters (21 feet)

10. Effects of increased sea-level rise and storm intensity Loss of coastal habitats and resources Loss of coastal habitats and resources Increased coastal erosion Increased coastal erosion Loss of recreation resources (beaches, marshes) Loss of recreation resources (beaches, marshes) Saltwater intrusion into aquifers, water wells, septic systems Saltwater intrusion into aquifers, water wells, septic systems Elevated storm-surge flooding levels Elevated storm-surge flooding levels Greater, more frequent coastal inundation Greater, more frequent coastal inundation Increased risk to people and infrastructure Increased risk to people and infrastructure Greater potential impact

11. (Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999, 2000) North Captiva Island Sept 2001 August 2004 SEA LEVEL RISE: POTENTIAL FOR INNUNDATION AND EROSION

12. Retreat from low-lying coastlines In some coastal areas retreat may be the most cost effective option. “Protect, Accommodate, Retreat” (IPCC response strategies for accelerated sea level rise)

13. Florida’s energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm impacts…. The interdependencies of fuel, transportation and electrical generation and distribution were found to be major issues in Florida’s recovery from recent major hurricanes. \ Bull et al., 2007, US. Climate Science Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5

14. Stationarity is dead – the future will not look like the past Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060 (Paul Milly et al., 2005)

15. Total water withdrawals in Florida by major category, 2005 12 BGD water used for power generation Florida Power Industry

16. Total water withdrawn and consumed in Florida by category, 2005 (billion gallons per day)

17. Total water withdrawn and gross power generated in Florida, 1970-2005

18. Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion

19. Hydrologic models to assess climate change Data Collection Prediction & uncertainty Conceptualization, simulation & sensitivity

20. Saltwater Intrusion Sensitivity Analysis Historic SLR affected saltwater intrusion Withdrawals had a greater impact Sum of multiple forcings greater than individual forcings 18501994 Zygnerski and Langevin, 2008

21. . GCM SPATIAL DOWNSALING

22. Hindcasting and Forecasting Climate Impacts on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Everglades Integrated Modeling Approach: Enhance existing hydrology model to hindcast SLR and historic vegetation change Add hurricane disturbance Assess habitat suitability Add NARCCAP AOCGM climate predictions Add Land use/land change Three scenarios (1900, 2010, 2050, greenhouse gas, temp & precip impacts) Develop predictive capability for SLR under restoration and management scenarios

23. SALTWATER INTRUSION -- 2 FT SEA LEVEL RISE

24. 100 75 50 25 0 Time inundated (%) 2 FT SLRExisting sea level Innundation and increased surface water salinity Simulated two foot increase in sea level

25. Carbon sequestration: Deliberate effort to decrease the net flux of CO 2 to the atmosphere by sequestering it from the atmosphere to the land and oceans Geologic Sequestration Terrestrial /biologic sequestration

26. Geologic sequestration

27. http://energy.er.usgs.gov/health_environment/co2_sequestration/

28. Digital database of borehole geophysical log data Map the regional extent of saline aquifer systems Delineate salinity variations at key well sites and along section lines and depict fresh and saltwater interfaces Saline Water Aquifer Mapping Project in the Southeastern United States Groundwater Resources Program

29. Biological carbon sequestration

30. Evapotranspiration & Carbon Network Urban station (with UCF Biology Department) ET & CO2 ET

31. USGS/UCF Urban Carbon Project Characterize carbon and water flux in an urban landscape Relate the carbon/water flux to landcover Develop models for optimizing carbon uptake and water conservation

32. Carbon sequestration through restoration of former wetlands (IPCC, 2007) Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

33. QUESTIONS ?

34. Global Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sequestration Sundquist et al., 2008