1. Government Science and Engineering Network and Horizon Scanning Centre Scenarios for the future civil service and implications for scientists and engineers 2 November 2012 Jane DowsettInnovation Space Beth HogbenGO-Science Martin DuckworthHSC Support Review of the science and engineering profession in the Civil Service – Annex I

2. Agenda 1300 START Welcome, introductions and objectives Five people in the GSE network Four Scenarios Group work to consider what each scenario means for scientist and engineers –What should individuals do for themselves? BREAK Implications. What do the scenarios mean for the civil service? Discussion of actions –What should the profession do? –What should civil service organisations do? 1600 END

3. Civil Service Reform has implications for all professions Francis Maude: “flatter, faster, more digital, more unified, with better capabilities and performance management, focused on outcomes not process, with modern terms and conditions, and which is more enjoyable to work for.” Key actions announced June 2012: More rigorous performance management Strengthening capability Unified Civil Service New ways of delivering services Creating a modern employment offer for staff Open policy making

4. Our people offer valuable skills and expertise to today’s civil service Leadership/Accountability Professional integrity (speak truth to power) Motivated by public service and intellectual challenge Assurance of science and engineering activity Pipeline of people with critical thinking and analytical perspective into Civil Service leadership positions Openness Networks with wider science and engineering community for learning, collaboration and advice Communication of government science and engineering activity for transparency and growth World renown, credible and respected - gateway for dialogue with industry, academia and international expertise Skills Deep knowledge in a wide range of areas (some known gaps) Translation of policy issues into research questions and translation of results into advice on implications Knowledge of the political, legislative and operational context for advice Support for career development Unified HoSEP network across all major science and engineering civil service organisations GSE – excellent foundation for sharing knowledge and know-how Roles in all spheres of CS activity (operations, policy, PPM) Professional identity emphasising collaboration, openness and transparency

5. Focal question for the project How will the working environment, employment models and career prospects of civil service professional experts within government evolve over the next ten years to 2022? 5

6. Themes for discussion What kind of knowledge, skills and expertise (in the broadest sense) will be important in the civil service of the future? What models of access and supply of expertise will we have? What does it mean for career opportunities? What systems and processes (HR and IT) will be needed in order to develop and deploy expertise effectively? What does it mean for leadership in the profession? In the civil service as a whole?

7. CHARACTERS

8. Five hypothetical GSE members Alice: young science PhD with industrial experience Brian: engineer using expertise in contracts and project management Clive: Chartered engineer in operational delivery David: science graduate, now civil service “generalist” in a policy role Emily: technical team leader with a science background

9. Alice Toxicologist in Health and Safety Executive 20’s PhD and industrial experience, in an area core to the work of the department Recruited from industry for her specific science knowledge and skills, which she uses in her day-to-day job Topic specialist practitioner in operational delivery

10. Brian Contracts manager in DfT 50’s Engineer by training His engineering discipline is a core function of his department, directly related to the work and output of the department Recruited from industry many years ago Brian now uses his engineering background in contracts negotiation and project management Programme / project manager, who sees his role as a facilitator

11. Clive Electronic Engineer in MoD 40’s Chartered engineer, using his skills in his job He uses his engineering discipline to support the delivery of departmental functions (e.g. designing, developing and supporting systems and services) Joined civil service as an engineering apprentice and achieved professional qualifications and chartered engineer status through training on the job Topic specialist. Practitioner in operational delivery

12. David Expert in Health Policy (gained in DH and DfID) Late 50’s Scientist by training, he joined from academia PhD topic is no longer relevant to his work in the department, but he uses his scientific understanding and background to help in his current job of policy development After a variety of roles across Whitehall, David is now a civil service “generalist” and is a member of the policy profession with frequent contact with ministers. He sees himself as an advocate for better use of evidence in decision making.

13. Emily Defra - Evidence programme leader on biodiversity 40’s Science graduate entrant to civil service Her science discipline is a useful background to her work but she works with experts from a range of disciplines to support the core functions of the department. Current role is a technical team leader of a science-based team in a policy sphere. She takes steps to keep up with scientific developments in her area and has current skills in great demand.

14. SCENARIOS

15. Summary of scenarios 15 NoWorking TitleSummaryUse of expert skills X Lean Government Continuous improvement and automation deliver year- on-year increases in workforce productivity Efficiency through technology and cross- departmental working Y Slim down and divest Slimmed down government through divesting functions and comprehensive outsourcing Many skills and services have been outsourced to specialist providers Z Investment for growth The focus of government changes to public investment. Resourced released by Reform Plan redeployed to supporting investment programme

16. Civil Service Reform Plan Expected 23% cut in size of civil service between 2010 and 2015 16 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service

17. X. Lean Government Continuous improvement philosophy delivers year-on-year increases in workforce productivity. Outputs maintained with fewer people. Widespread automation of service delivery. Technology used effectively internally to transform working practices and the process of government. Interaction with 99% of the population now served by a single integrated smart-phone App. Expert skills applied more efficiently and more flexibly across departments. Less subcontracting, with more work done in-house. 17

18. X. Lean Government Further 23% cut between 2015 and 2022 18 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service

19. Y. “Slim down and Divest” Civil service reforms achieve 2012 target reductions (23% by 2015) with difficulty. Comparisons with private industry productivity prove unwarranted. Ongoing political requirement to reduce headcount. Extensive privatisation and outsourcing of central government functions. Divesting of authority to local government or to EU agencies Technology used to automate but not reinvent 2012 procedures and processes. Specialist expertise contracted out. Work requiring graduate level skills is often outsourced within contractors to offshore low-cost subsidiaries. 19

20. Y. “Slim down and Divest” Further 23% cut in headcount by 2022, but total cost static after 2015 20 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service headcount costs

21. Z. “Investment for growth” With low interest rates and the continued drive for economic growth, the priority shifts to the UK’s long-term competitiveness. Government focus changes towards public investment. –Infrastructure, education and the UK’s science base. Civil service capacity released by further reforms after 2012 has been redirected to support this programme. Technology used internally to automate 2012 procedures, but not transform the process of government. Interaction with the public now fully automated but on a department-by- department basis, with locally tailored systems. Increased demand for commercial and technical skills to manage, and sometimes to deliver, public investment programmes. 21

22. Z. “Investment for growth” Increasing efficiency means fewer people needed per unit of output, like Scenario X 22 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service

23. Z. “Investment for growth” But increased outputs reflecting increased national investment 23 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service

24. Z. “Investment for growth” But increased outputs reflecting increased national investment 24 2010 Year 2015 2020 Size of UK civil service Growth in number of scientists and engineers after 2015 to service increased outputs

25. Scenario Groups We need to divide into three groups of roughly equal size If you have a strong preference for one scenario, then please move towards the area designated for that scenario If you have that no strong preference for any scenario, then please move towards the centre of the room We will choose a dividing point to create three equal-sized groups Please listen to the instructions

26. EXERCISE 1 What does this scenario mean for the 5 characters A – E? IMPLICATIONS IN THE FUTURE What are the implications of your future scenario for each character? IMPLICATIONS TODAY If the character knew what was going to happen, what are the implications for them today? –What does this mean for their situation today? –What skills and career choices should they consider? What should this character do now? Please use the Think Tank software to input your ideas

27. Plenary Discussion CHARACTERS What are the implications of the scenarios for each character? What does this mean for their situation today? What skills and career choices should they consider? What should this character do now? –What should individuals do for themselves? –Possible proactive actions?

28. Plenary Discussion Alice: young science PhD with industrial experience Brian: engineer using expertise in contracts and project management Clive: Chartered engineer in operational delivery David: science graduate, now civil service “generalist” in a policy role Emily: technical team leader with a science background

29. TEA BREAK

30. Agenda 1300 START Welcome, introductions and objectives Five people in the GSE network Four Scenarios Group work to consider what each scenario means for scientist and engineers –What should individuals do for themselves? BREAK Implications. What do the scenarios mean for the civil service? Discussion of actions –What should the profession do? –What should civil service organisations do? 1600 END

31. EXERCISE 2 What does this scenario mean for the civil service? What does this scenario mean for scientists and engineers? Discussion themes: 1.What kind of knowledge, skills and expertise (in the broadest sense) will be important in the civil service of the future? 2.What models of access and supply of expertise will we have? 3.What does it mean for career opportunities? 4.What systems and processes (HR and IT) will be needed in order to develop and deploy expertise effectively? 5.What does it mean for leadership in the profession? In the civil service as a whole? Please use the wallcharts to capture your thoughts and feed them back to the other two groups.

32. Civil Service professional networks Plenary Discussion Given the different possible futures shown in the scenarios, what does this mean for the network today? What should the professional network do? What advice should the professional network offer its members? What should civil service organisations do?

33. Next steps Feedback on scenarios and share with other professions Analysis of implications will inform recommendations to head of profession and senior network Publication of report – December 2012 Follow up to ensure implementation

34. THANK YOU