1. Birmingham’s population Greg Ball

2. Birmingham’s Population About one million Large numbers of students and overseas in- migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time residents’ Recent ONS changes increased population estimate by 2,400 (0.24%) –Net gain from student inflows adjusted upwards –Net gain from international adjusted downwards –Population aged 20-24 increase by 4% Main concern IM, but problems in local distribution less acute than in London

3. Revised estimates for 2006 Large gains in student age groups Reductions in most other groups Some concern that to and from study adjustments unbalanced

4. NKM Estimate for 2006 Matching administrative datasets Hampered by lack of LLPG at time “Confirmed population” total similar to ONS (pre-revision) 25-75k possible addition – unmatched records.

5. NKM & ONS 2006 Estimates ONS has many more 15-24 (students) NKM higher in many ‘non-problem’ ages Greater differences from revised MYE

6. Males and Females ONS had 7,000 fewer males, but 9,000 more females ONS has more males & females aged 15-24 ONS has fewer males in 30-64 ages ONS has fewer children – male and female

7. Are estimates too low? Could be 25-75k (2-7%) higher? –Definitional, quality and timing issues –NKM undercounts students Matching problems Students not registering with NHS? –Children and older males more puzzling