1. A First Look at Chance Investigation 1 – How Likely Is It?
1.1 Flipping for Breakfast
Kalvin, an eighth grader always has cereal for breakfast. He likes Cocoa Blast cereal so much that he wants to eat it every morning. Kalvin’s mother wants him to eat Health Nut Flakes at least some mornings because it’s more nutritious than Cocoa Blast.
Kalvin and his mother have come up with a fun way to determine which cereal Kalvin will have for breakfast. Each morning Kalvin flips a coin. If the coin comes up heads, he will have Cocoa Blast. If he flips a tail he will have Health Nut Flakes.
Flip a coin 30 times to determine Kalvin’s cereal for each morning in June. Use Labsheet 1.1 to help you collect your data.
Record the result of the flip (H or T) and the percent of heads so far. Use the data to make a coordinate graph with the days for 1-30 on the x axis and the percent of heads on the y axis.

2. Tally Chart
Number of Heads in ALL
Day Amount of Flips 1 2 3 4
Percent

3. A First Look at Chance Investigation 1 – How Likely Is It?
1.2 Flipping for Breakfast
Kalvin found a penny near a railroad track that had been bent and flattened. He decided to use this penny for determining his breakfast. Kalvin’s mother became suspicious of the penny at the end of June because Kalvin had eaten Health Nut Flakes only seven times.
Why do you think she might have been suspicious?
Do you think getting heads or tails is equally likely with Kalvin’s penny? What do you think equally likely means?
How could Kalvin find out if his coin is “fair”?
Ex. names in a hat Problem 1.2