1. Dr. Mike Bailey Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

2. FUNDAMENTALS  Dates: February 8, 10, 15, and 17  Recommended text: Kelton, Sadowski, and Sturrock. 2007. Simulation with Arena. McGraw Hill, Boston. ISBN978-0- 07-352341-5.  Recommended software: Arena for Students (download free from http://www.arenasimulation.com/) http://www.arenasimulation.com/  Topical course 4 sessions 4 x 35-minute sessions (at least one lab using tools)

3. SESSIONS  Basics and Mechanics  Simulation Software  Statistical Treatment of Simulation Data  Topics in Simulation  Lectures will remain available at https://orsagouge.pbworks.com/ https://orsagouge.pbworks.com/

4. INTRODUCTION  Imitates the behavior of a closed system in some way(s) that are relevant to some decision(s) we wish to support Computer Simulation

5. EXPERIMENTATION  Change the input parameters and observe a change in the output Like the real system would react Different in ways we understand ○ Unimportant ○ Validation: unimportant to our decisipon(s) Computer Simulation INPUT PARAMETERS OUTPUT SAMPLE

6. THE PROCESS OF MODELING  System-itizing and abstracting (modeling) teaches us about the system  Identifying the input instructive Searching for values for the input Computer Simulation INPUT PARAMETERS OUTPUT SAMPLE

7. EXAMPLE: Batteries  You supply a platoon with batteries for their PRC-99 tactical camera. The platoon is off on a displacement that will last four(4) weeks before battery resupply is possible. Data is available for battery discharge When the camera is operating When a picture is taken When the flash is operated

8. EXAMPLE  Simulate the 4-week period Camera on during patrols Patrols every other day Last 4 hours Half (or so) are nighttime/low light Camera operates during patrols Average 10 pictures/patrol Data ○ 1/100 th discharge per hour operating ○ 1/10 th discharge per pic ○ 1/5 th discharge per pic with flash

9. THE ANSWER?  xls tells us 21.56 batteries  How do we like this answer?  Uncertainty modeling… Number of patrols per week Number of pictures per patrol

10. ONE OUTCOME

11. IS THIS BETTER?  Probabilistic character of the output  Average is 24.8-ish  What use is the extra information?

12. IN THIS COURSE  How to make those mechanics work  How to build models of interesting systems  How to experiment with the model  How to support decisions