1. How much biomass can Europe use without harming the environment? Results of EEA Studies Uwe R. Fritsche Coordinator, Energy & Climate Division Öko-Institut (Institut for applied ecology), Darmstadt Office Work sponsored by presented at the Expert Meeting on Biodiversity Standards and Strategies for sustainable cultivation of Biomass for non-food Purposes, Isle of Vilm, March 13-15, 2008

2. Partners & Objectives Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology, DE) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL) European Forest Institute (EFI, FI) AEA-Technology (AEAT, UK) Wageningen University & Research, Alterra (NL) + subcontracts for CEE countries (forest potentials) + workshop partners Mediterranean (JRC, ES, GR, IT) Determine EU domestic bioenergy potential that causes -no additional pressure on farmland, forest biodiversity and soil/water resources -respects other environmental objectives (organic farming, waste minimization, climate targets)

3. EU Biomass in Perspective Biomass use today approx. 60 MtOE EU renewables target 12% in 2010:  130 MtOE biomass EU renewable target 20% in 2020:  210–250 MtOE biomass incl. biofuels target 10% in 2020

4. Sustainable EU Biomass agricultural area: 30% for ‘environmentally orientated’ farming in 2030 set-aside 3 % of intensively used farmland for nature conservation (“ecological stepping stones”) no grassland conversion to intensive agriculture (cross-compliance, soil carbon, biodiversity) no conversion of other land to UAA no forest residues from critical sites straw use only if soil is protected  Use sub-regional differentiation (NUTS-2 level)

5. Food and fodder production UAA Yield increase CAP reform Environmen- tal frame Bioenergy Crop production Grassland Competition effect between energy and food market Increase of commodity prices relative to 2000 Crop 2010 2020 2030 rapeseed oil 110% 121% 200% Sugar 115% 127% 200% round wood 115% 132% 152% Wheat, maize 113% 125% 138% Land Potential: Principles

6. Agricultural Land Potential

7. Allocation of Crops to Land

8. Differentiate between environmental zones Determine environmental impact of bioenergy crops Introduce mix of bioenergy crops (maintain crop/ landscape diversity) –erosion –soil compaction –nutrient inputs groundwater –nutrient inputs in surface water –pesticide pollution of soils and water –water abstraction –"increased fire risk" –diversity of crop types Which crops are best to grow where? Agricultural biomass

9. EEA Sustainable Crop Mix

10. EU Bio-Potential: Crops

11. roots and foliage remain in the forest sustainable nutrient balance soil type base saturation soil erosion steepness elevation soil compaction peat land soil water regime No intensification on protected areas (intrinsic) Sustainable Forest Residues

12. Total Bio-Potential EU-25 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 201020202030 Primary biomass potential, Mtoe Additional agricultural potential (DE, FR) Additional forest potential Agriculture Forestry Waste Effect of increasing energy & carbon prices

13. Sustainable Bioenergy Potential from agriculture by crop

14. Bioenergy Environ- mental resources Costs & Employment Greenhouse gas reduction Supply security How to use potential? Replace as much imported fuel as possible t CO 2 avoided per hectare? t CO 2 avoided per Dollar? synergies with nature protection crop mix respects soil, water land use change

15. Maximize CO 2 savings

16. “least cost” mix: 13.3% bio-electricity 16.5% bio-heat 5.6% bio-fuels Approx. 15 % of EU prim. energy in 2030 could be from biomass Sustainable Bioenergy

17. Further Policy and Research Development and implementation of sustainability standards Energy policy to develop framework conditions for environmentally-friendly bioenergy systems Climate changes complicates the picture - affects ability to make assumptions about the future Scale of production: –smaller scale easier to come up with solutions tailored to local agri-environmental conditions Crop rotation and diversification important factors Need more research on Life Cycle Assessment of bioenergy crops + bioenergy pathways

18. More Information: EU Ayla.Uslu@eea.europa.eu Jan-Erik.Petersen@eea.europa.eu www.eea.europa.eu