1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Rationale for Biofuels. ”Biofuels and biodiversity – towards a sustainable use of Bio-energy” Organized by: Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University and KNAW’s Global Change Committee Amsterdam, 12 December 2007 André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Houston we have a problem! Peak oil Peak soil Peak water Peak biodiversity loss Peak population Peak GDP Climate Agriculture Energy Biodiversity Poverty & development And it is urgent!

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management What’s it gonna be?

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Pathway vs. climate Bron: KNMI; Dorland

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Projections for global final energy demand for the four IPCC scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2).

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Future world’s energy supply… (combined with 80% reduction of GHG- emissions): a portfolio of options is needed! Courtesy of IIASA Courtesy of Shell

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Agricultural land use! We need a lot more food (especially protein). We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land. Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s. Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting; Productivity in agriculture is awful on large parts of the globe. Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such. Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Potential land-use pattern changes (IMAGE) [Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2005]

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management So… Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is essential (2 nd green revolution; see e.g. Fresco in collaboration with Faaij & Dijk ); This is feasible (FAO)… …with increased water use efficiency, less land, protection of soils and better incomes. But: what gets the money and sustainable economic activity into the rural regions?

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management International bio-energy markets developing fast… Excitement: –entered first phases of commodity market trading (ethanol); pellets the silent suprise. –Creates unique opportunities for both producers regions as importers. –Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with development of bioenergy in rapidly developing international context. Concerns: –Fierce international debate on sustainability; remarkably fast response from governments, companies, NGO’s. –Different interests & perspectives on governance & policy –Vulnerable stage; many barriers remain

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton) Courtesy of UNCTAD

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton) Traded: 3 billion litres Global production: 32 billion litres Courtesy of UNCTAD

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management More trade developments IEA Task 40 Bradley, 2006

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bioenergy today 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial: –< 1 EJ electricity –~ 2.5 EJ heat –~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that ethanol sugar cane based) Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops and palm oil. Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Generations… 1 st Generation (EU, US) Annual crops = food crops. Limited to arable land. Potential constrained. High costs; mainly feedstock. Poor - modest GHG and env. performance. Pushed by ‘simple’ policies. 2 nd generation Lignocellulosic materials. Residues, wastes, arable, pasture, marginal and degraded lands. Potential large. Strong economic outlook: technology more important. Good – excellent GHG and env. performance Demanded by more sophisticated needs 3 rd generation: optimized conversion, ‘surprise feedstocks’ (…). But it will take time!

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Perennial crops (vs. annual crops) Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ) Planted for 15-25 years Low(er) intensity – Can restore soil carbon and structure – Suited for marginal/degraded lands – Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values) Wide portfolio of species & production systems – Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity – Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous species) Earlier development stage – Large scale and diverse experience needed – Learning curve to be exploited – Improvement potential Miscanthus x giganteus

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yields: perennials ~3x annual CropBiomass yield (odt/ha* yr) Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr) Wheat4 - 5~ 50 Corn5 – 6~ 60 Sugar Beet9 – 10~ 110 Soy Bean1 – 2~ 20 Sugar Cane10 – 11~ 120 Palm Oil10-15~ 160 Jathropha5-6~ 60 SRC temperate climate10 – 15100 - 180 SRC tropical climate15 - 30170 - 350 Energy grasses good conditions10 - 20170 – 230 Perennials marginal/degraded lands3 - 1030 – 120

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG Balances IEA – Fulton, 2004

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global potentials are large…; but need to be developed Agricultural land: 300 EJ Marginal lands: <60- 150 EJ Agri residues: 15-70 EJ Forest residues: <30-150 EJ Dung: 5-55 EJ Organic waste: 5 - >50 EJ TOTAL: 500 EJ

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass 1.SHF 2.SSF 3.SSCF 4.CBP +BIG/CC… Major demonstrations In US/Canada, EU

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Ethanol plants US (status 2006) Source: John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006; green = operating, red = under construction) Global ethanol Production & outlook

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Synthetic fuels from biomass Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine Power Pre-treatment: - grinding - drying feedstock is poplar wood Gasification: - air or oxygen - pressurised or atmospheric - direct/indirect Gas cleaning: - ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot FT liquids Offgas Recycle loop FT synthesis: - slurry reactor or fixed bed Gas turbine Gas processing: - reforming - shift - CO 2 removal Major investments in IG-FT capacity ongoing in China right now: - Reducing dependency on oil imports! - Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions… About 50% of carbon!

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management What are we waiting for? Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project; (China) Shell gasifier arriving at site September 2006. 15 licences in China at present… Courtesy of Shell

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Economic performance 2 nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Certification bioenergy (I): ongoing initiatives Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations…; EC. NGO’s: International bodies: UNEP, UNCTAD, FAO,… Market initiatives/multistakeholder: roundtables on palm, soy and biofuels, GGL, Electrabel,… IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2007; Biomass & Bioenergy, Forthcoming:

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Certification bioenergy (III): concerted action… First time that governments actually try to set ‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! -> Paradigm shift with implications for food products, fodder, materials etc. This takes time (allow for learning). Varying degree of concern: palm oil/soy bean/corn… most debated, other (residues, wood) are approved by most stakeholders Methodological issues to be resolved: competition, biodiversity, a.o. Global convergence, dialogue and deployment priority (leaders needed).

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biofuels roadmap (I). Biomass resource base; the foundation: –Perennials; build experience! –Biomass resource (and land) base much more diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone. –Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials) can offer substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits when done right. –Develop biomass production in global market context (international trade & sustainability demands)

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biofuels roadmap (II). 2 nd generation biofuels provide the economics energy & GHG balance to be the winning option. Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification based synfuels compete. Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity (+CCS) Hydrolysis units can start as ‘add-ons’ to current EtOH production capacity. Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter term (now); for fuels on medium term (before 2015).

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Stay with me for 4 more seconds… Current crisis in crossing the global carrying capacity requires unprecedented action… …and it has to be fast! …and it will not be easy. Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2 nd revolution!), development (poverty!), energy (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a unique position. We have the bioenergy options to achieve synergies (as well as the wrong ones)

30. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Stay with me for 2 more seconds… Governance is the key; across policy fields (agriculture, energy, climate, development); consistent and stable. Policies on biofuels redesigned: from one to multiple objectives. Moratorium on ‘temperate climate biofuels’ seems wise; save money… …and spend it on the right biofuels.

31. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management "Modern bio-energy and biofuels have the potential to cover one third of the future world's energy demand on a sustainable basis and provide a key lever for much needed rural development on a global scale". “Postponing action and generating confusion is at this stage immoral”