1. How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen Jascourt*UCAR/COMET at NWS Headquarters Bill BuaUCAR/COMET at NCEP Greg ByrdUCAR/COMET at UCAR *Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov

2. How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada? NOAA/NCEP NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH 20MPH,T>60F] RH? Forecast T, mixing depth X Elko

3. How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential? GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct 500 hPa 558 dm NOAA/NCEP 2-m T o C 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11 NAM GFS

4. UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it 1.MetEd site 2.Operational Models Matrix Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models NWP Course (conceptual background) Model-specific information Forums Ensemble module 3.Case examples – what happened, why 4.VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases 5.COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases 6.Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases

5. NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

7. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

8. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

9. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

10. NWP COURSE Navigation panel Content panel

11. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ Content is updated as models change!

12. MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT

13. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

14. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

15. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

16. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

17. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

18. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

19. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

20. NAVIGATION Discussion forums

21. NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

22. MODULES Ensemble Forecasting Explained Navigation panel Content panel

23. NAVIGATION Cases www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/

24. CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis Navigation panelContent panel

25. CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis

26. 5-10 o C cooler than first guess nearly same as first guess Smooths out changes to first guess

27. NAVIGATION VISITview Teletraining http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html

28. VISIT SESSIONS NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast?

29. NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

30. WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA] Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module

31. WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

32. Model change summary and forecast impacts

33. WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model Precipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type

34. WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

35. SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization “Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page

36. SUMMARY 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it Start:MetEd site www.meted.ucar.edu Register (free), log in Select NWP under TOPICS Operational Models Matrix (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/) Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models NWP Course (conceptual background) Model-specific information Forums Ensemble module Case examples (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/) COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html