1. key drivers of the energy future
GDP & pop. growth
urbanisation
demand mgmt.
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
Technology and policy
Environmental Impacts
Security
of Supply

2. energy use grows with economic development
energy demand and GDP per capita ( ) US
Australia
Russia
France
Japan
Ireland
S. Korea UK
Malaysia
Greece
Mexico
China
Brazil
India
Source: UN and DOE EIA
Russia data only

3. demographic transformations
Oceania
Oceania
N-America
N-America
Africa
Africa
S-America
S-America
Europe
Europe
8.9
billion
6.3
billion
source: United Nations
Asia
Asia

4. Global energy demand is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030 – an average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 70% of this increased demand comes from developing countries
Global Energy Demand Growth by Region ( )
Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ
2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations
3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

5. annual primary energy demand 1971-2003
Source IEA, (Excludes biomass)

6. growing energy demand is projected
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector ( )
Energy Demand (bnboe)
Key:
- transport
- power
- industry
- other sectors
Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants
2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
Source: IEA WEO 2004

7. key drivers of the energy future
GDP & pop. growth
urbanisation
demand mgmt.
significant resources
non-conventionals
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
Technology and policy
Environmental Constraints
Security
of Supply

8. US energy supply since 1850
Source: EIA

9. global primary energy sources
Nuclear
Hydro
Oil
Oil
Coal
Coal
Gas
Natural gas
Hydro
Nuclear

10. BAU (business as usual) projection of primary energy sources
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%)
6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
Total
1.6
Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)

11. substantial global fossil resources
Yet to Find
Unconventional
Unconventional
Reserves & Resources (bnboe)
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.
Proven
Yet to Find
Yet to Find
R/P Ratio
41 yrs.
R/P Ratio
67 yrs.
Proven
Proven
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

12. key drivers of the energy future
GDP & pop. growth
urbanisation
demand mgmt.
significant resources
non-conventionals
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
Technology and policy
Environmental Impacts
Security
of Supply
dislocation of resources
import dependence

13. significant hydrocarbon resource potential
Oil, Gas and Coal Resources by Region (bnboe)
Gas
Europe
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Oil
Coal
FSU
Oil
Gas
Coal
Resource Potential (bnboe)
North America
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Middle East
Oil
Gas
Coal
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Asia Pacific
Oil
Gas
Coal
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Africa
Oil
Gas
Coal
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Oil
Gas
Coal
South America
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Key:
- unconventional oil
- conventional oil
- gas
- coal
Source: BP Data

14. dislocation of fossil fuel supply & demand
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

15. key drivers of the energy future
GDP & pop. growth
urbanisation
demand mgmt.
significant resources
non-conventionals
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
Technology and policy
local pollution
climate change
Environmental Impacts
Security
of Supply
dislocation of resources
import dependence

16. climate change and CO2 emissions
CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use
The global temperature is increasing
other indicators of climate change
There is a plausible causal connection
but ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system
scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood forcings
Impacts of higher CO2 are uncertain
~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm)
Reached by 2050 under BAU
Precautionary action is warranted
What could the world do?
Will we do it?

17. crucial facts about CO2 science
The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate
Emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century to stabilize atmospheric concentration at 550 ppm
This in the face of a doubling of energy demand in the next 50 years (1.5% per year emissions growth)
The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years
The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century
Near-term emissions growth can be offset by greater long-term reductions
Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20% emissions reduction buys 15 years)

18. some stabilization scenarios
Emissions
Concentration

19. greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by source
Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0

20. two key energy considerations – security & climate
Carbon Free H2 for Transport
High
CTL
Capture & Storage
Conv. Biofuels
Heavy Oil
Hybrids
Adv.
Biofuels
Capture & Storage
Vehicle Efficiency (e.g. light weighting)
GTL
C&S
Ultra Deep Water
Concern over Future Availability of Oil and Gas
Enhanced
Recovery
Arctic
CNG
Dieselisation
- supply side options
- demand side options
Key:
Low
Low
High
Concern relating to Threat of Climate Change

21. corn ethanol is sub-optimal
Production does not scale to material impact
20% of US corn production in 2006 (vs. 6% in 2000) was used to make ethanol displacing ~2.5% of petrol use
17% of US corn production was exported in 2006
The energy and environmental benefits are limited
To make 1 MJ of corn ethanol requires 0.9 MJ of other energy (0.4 MJ coal, 0.3 MJ gas, 0.04 MJ of nuclear/hydro, MJ crude)
Net CO2 emission of corn ethanol ~18% less than petrol
Ethanol is not an optimal fuel molecule
Energy density, water, corrosive,…
There is tremendous scope to improve (energy, economics, emissions)

22. evaluating power options
power sector
High
Solar
Unconventional
Gas
Hydrogen Power
Nuclear
Wind
Concern over Future Availability of Oil and Gas
Coal
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
- power generation options
- supply option
Key:
Gas CCGT
Low
Low
Concern relating to Threat of Climate Change
High