1. Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @whatscotsthink

2. Turnout Prospects Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

3. A Little Movement in the Polls? Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

4. The Post Christmas Sequence % YesChange since Pre-WP TNS BMRB41+5 ICM46+6 YouGov39+1 Survation38- TNS BMRB41+5 Panelbase43-2 YouGov39+1 Survation45- ICM43+3 Panelbase44 Ipsos MORI36+2 YouGov40+2 Survation45-

5. The Don’t Knows

6. Squeezing the Don’t Knows

7. Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos MORI

8. Possible Changers - ICM Source: ICM Research

9. The Cross-Party Transfer

10. The Gender Gap

11. Partly a Question of Identity Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

12. Scotland’s Future - Economy? Source: ICM Research

13. Scotland Future’s - Equality Source: ICM Research

14. Economy Matters (Much) More Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

15. The Gender Gap on the Economy Source: ICM Research

16. Conclusion Be ready for a high turnout! The referendum race has narrowed a bit But Yes side still face a substantial challenge – Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over – Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones – Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union – Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women