1. Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview
Robert Richards, Ph.D.
Project Manager
Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.
Hilbert Robinson
President
Afinitus Group LLC
(Intro )
How many people have
heard of Critical Chain?
tried Critical Chain?
Before I continue I would like to mention something I found very illuminating that I read in
the The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell. “We all want to believe that the key to making an impact on someone
lies with the
inherent quality of the ideas we present”
He also found that ideas that got through happened by “tinkering, on the margin, with the PRESENTATION of the ideas”
So I ask you to not only listen to the message, but if you think of ways that the delivery can be improved please jot them down and share them with me.
Therefore, if you don’t appreciate Critical Chain more by the end of the this talk
Don’t blame the message
BLAME THE MESSANGER
Either way, I suggest getting a few intros to Critical Chain before making any conclusions or moving forward.

2. Are You A Responsible Person?
Scenario:
You live in New England and it’s late Winter
Time to airport varies from 45 minutes to 3 hours depending…
Most times it takes a little over 65 minutes
You are joining the President at 9:00 AM at the airport
Questions:
How early should you leave? __________
Why?_____________________________
Ask audience to write the answer down.
Draw a chart with

3. Presentation Outline Background Problem [What to Change]
Triple Constraints
Murphy’s Law
Complexity
Problem [What to Change]
Localized Risk Management
Task Level Insurance Policy
Student Syndrome
Parkinson’s Law
Multi-tasking
Solution [What to Change to]
Governing Principle - Global Risk Management
Project Level Protection
Systems Perspective
Execution Control
This presentation outline reminds me of a
Critical Chain talk I just attended 2 weeks ago.
The PMI Sacramento Valley Chapter has a scheduling forum.
I had been trying to go for over a year, but do to other obligations and the distance from San Mateo to Sacramento (about 100 miles) I had never made it.
Finally, I had the opportunity, jumped on the Capitol Corridor Amtrak train and went.
I confirmed that there was a meeting but did not know the topic.
When I arrived, I learned that the presentation was an
Introduction to Critical Chain talk.
So I thought, this could go either way … boring or interesting.
It was many times frustrating because I would think
your not hitting the main points!
However, after I had watched the entire presentation and spoke with the presenter I learned why he had taken the approach he had.
I took some lessons from that presentation and hope it betters this presentation.

4. Background Triple Constraints [Binding Commitments] Time [Minimize]
Capacity / Resource Budget [Minimize]
Content / Scope / Quality [Maximize]

5. Background Murphy’s Law [Disruption Event]
Number of unknowns
Range of possibilities
Frequency of repetition
Complexity [Amplification factor]
Degree of integration required
Number of dimensions to be integrated
Speed of execution

6. Presentation Outline Background Problem [What to Change]
Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift
Triple Constraints
Complexity
Murphy’s Law
Problem [What to Change]
Localized Risk Management
Task Level Insurance Policy
Student Syndrome
Parkinson’s Law
Multi-tasking
Solution [What to Change to]
Governing Principle - Global Risk Management
Project Level Protection
Systems Perspective
Execution Control

7. Problem: Localized Risk Management Strategy
Task level insurance policy
See opening scenario – answers?
And if it was a task in a project??
** How safe is safe enough?**
Student Syndrome
The dog ate my homework
Parkinson's Law
Self-fulfilling prophecy [good estimating?]
Multi-tasking [absence of priorities]
Hero or villain?
Student Syndrome – Start as late as possible
Parkinson’s Law – task expands to fill the time available
High reliability requires safety on the task.

8. Problem: Localized Risk Management
One Resource, Four Tasks, from Four Different Projects
Task switching has overhead: Much of the benefit of for example the “Getting Things Done” book is teaching how to
reduce task switching, and
setting up a process for reducing the overhead when task switching.
Multi-tasking causes delays to spread across all projects, adding as much as 20% to all projects

9. Presentation Outline Background Problem [What to Change]
Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift
Triple Constraints
Complexity
Murphy’s Law
Problem [What to Change]
Localized Risk Management
Task Level Insurance Policy
Student Syndrome
Parkinson’s Law
Solution [What to Change to]
Global Risk Management
Project Level Protection
Systems Perspective
Execution Control
How did I get here today …
Stottler Henke has been developing
scheduling tools for NASA since about 1990.
For example our
resource constrained scheduling tool “Aurora”
Is used to schedule the refurbishment of the Space Shuttle.
I was reminded here that this occurs in the 3rd largest building by volume.
Because of Aurora’s scheduling capabilities it was chosen by Boeing to schedule the final assembly of the B787 and various other projects.
Aurora beat out all commercial critical path and critical chain software packages per scheduling resource loaded schedules.
Because of this, Boeing asked us to implement Critical Chain (with many non-traditional extensions) on top of Aurora
This Aurora-CCPM product is not used in the
largest building by volume.

10. Solution Governing Principle Behind CCPM is: Benefits:
Aggregation of risk…
Benefits:
Lower overall protection needed
Higher degree of “coverage” achieved
Leading to lower incidence of “failure”

11. Solution: Global Approach to Risk Management
Planning
Project Level vs. Task Level Protection
Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects
Should load for multiple projects be considered?
Why?
How?
Execution Control
Promote and encourage team culture
Controlled work queues
No multi-tasking work rules
No batch processing work rules
Task assignment prioritization
Management by Exception

12. Critical Chain Planning Process
From Task to Project Protection
1. Traditional Plan
144 hours
2. Safety Excluded
Each color represents a different skill category.
72 hours
3. Resource Leveled
4. Critical Chain Marked
84 hours 12

13. Critical Chain Planning Process
From Task to
Project Protection
144 Hours
1. Traditional Plan
72 Hours
2. Safety Excluded
Each color represents a different skill category.
3. Resource Leveled
84 Hours
4. Critical Chain Marked in Yellow

14. Aggregation Principle
The Concept of Risk Pooling:
Can someone explain why this works?
Health Care Example:
Larger pool = Lower cost . 14

15. Aggregation Principle
Insurance is designed to work by spreading costs across a large number of people. Premiums are based on the average costs for the people in an insured group.  This risk-spreading function helps make insurance reasonably affordable for most people.

16. Critical Chain Planning
Compared to 144 days traditional
132 hours
PB = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer
Application of Aggregation Principle means that the amount of protection required in a schedule decreases as the number of tasks being protected increases.
A series of tasks protected at one location requires less protection than if each task was to be individually protected.
Locating all the protection in a project at the end of the project provides maximum protection for all the tasks in that project.
Aggregation Principle [where did some of the safety go?]:
Pooled protection provides more coverage
Location is just as important as amount
Sizing Rule of Thumb  2/3rds to 1/3rd
Buffer is half of preceding chain 16

17. Critical Chain Planning
Schedule shown in Aurora
132 hours compared to 144 hours in traditional schedule
Let’s pause and review who has implemented and benefited from Critical Chain
Alstom
First Solar
Siemens
Cliffs Natural Resources Michigan Operations (CNRMO) mining and mineral processing plants
Elbit Systems
Pulte Homes
Boeing – Commercial and Defense
Japanese Ministry for Land,Infrastructure, & Transportation
US Air Force Robins Air Force Base in Robins, Georgia
US Marines - Marine Corps Logistics Command, Helicopter repair
US Navy, submarine and ship refurbishment
Proj_Buf = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer 17

18. Critical Chain in Execution
Schedule Before Execution Starts
132 hours
“AS OF DATE”
132 hours
T8 experienced a 5 day increase in scope or delay
Results in a 2.5 day impact to the project buffer
The rest was absorbed by the Critical Chain gap
=2.5 7% Complete and 14% Buffer Consumed

19. Perspective on Buffers
Not “rear view mirror watching” Predictive/Preventative/Leading Indicator Mechanism to Promote and encourage Team Work Collaboration / Communication Incentive Mechanism Measuring device – Neutral, Normalized Metrics Real-time Risk Meter Encourages an holistic/goal oriented perspective
Application of Aggregation Principle means that the amount of protection required in a schedule decreases as the number of tasks being protected increases.
A series of tasks protected at one location requires less protection than if each task was to be individually protected.
Locating all the protection in a project at the end of the project provides maximum protection for all the tasks in that project.
(after going through slide)
* Tipping point also reminded me about what we were taught in psychology and sociology classes.
* Human Behavior is greatly affected by their CONTEXT / environment.
This is not obvious because people are actually very good at controlling their context.
There have been many presentations at this and virtually every other project management related conference, about how team members should perform and how project managers should deal with human relationships to make projects successful.
HOWEVER, most of the time we are trying to change human behavior withOUT changing the context.
* Critical PATH project management creates a CONTEXT for people to perform in
* Critical CHAIN project management creates a very different CONTEXT for people to perform in
* Critical Chain is a context that promotes the type of behaviors that needed for effective teams
E.g., “Avoid Blaming & Complaining”
* Critical Chain  When things go bad, not meeting commitments  team rushes to help NOT blame
So incentive to hide problems, & look for scapegoats is greatly reduced. 19

20. NOTES
* Tipping point also reminded me about what we were taught in psychology and sociology classes.
* Human Behavior is greatly affected by their CONTEXT / environment.
This is not obvious because people are actually very good at controlling their context.
There have been many presentations at this and virtually every other project management related conference, about how team members should perform and how project managers should deal with human relationships to make projects successful.
HOWEVER, most of the time we are trying to change human behavior withOUT changing the context.
* Critical PATH project management creates a CONTEXT for people to perform in
* Critical CHAIN project management creates a very different CONTEXT for people to perform in
* Critical Chain is a context that promotes the type of behaviors that needed for effective teams
E.g., “Avoid Blaming & Complaining”
* Critical Chain  When things go bad, not meeting commitments  team rushes to help NOT blame
So incentive to hide problems, & look for scapegoats is greatly reduced.

21. Critical Chain Priority Metric
Project Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart 21

22. Critical Chain Priority Metric
Project Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart 22

23. Multi-Project System Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects
Should load for multiple projects be considered jointly?
Obviously
Why?
Prevent System Overload/Multi-tasking
How?
By taking a Systems Perspective

24. Creating a Multi-Project Schedule
Finite Capacity Pipeline
Due Dates Are Derived
Ingredients:
CC Plans [shorter]
Strategic Pacing Mechanism
Strict Priority Scheme
Rate Limit Policy/Guidelines

25. Multi-Project Execution Control Pipeline Status Snap Shot
0 % Buffer Consumed
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% Critical Chain Completed
100
1003
1002
1001
1007
1006
1004
1009
In Execution, Buffer Status Drives Priority Decisions, not Project Importance
1005
1008
1010
By Portfolio of Projects

26. The Upshot… Benefits Challenges: Operational Coherence – Stability
20% Shorter Cycle-Times – Speed
On-time Performance – Reliability
More throughput – Growth
Challenges:
1. Simple but not easy to grasp – too simple?
Requires a change in mindset
Takes 120 days for typical 100 person team
We don’t need that much improvement

27. Questions ??? Robert Richards Ph.D., Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.
Hilbert Robinson
President
Afinitus Group LLC