1. Mutual Disruption: IM-Presence Meets the Mobile Phone R. Brough Turner SVP & CTO http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/

2. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 2 Passions Layer 0 competition for first mile access Condominium fiber; municipal dark fiber; … Telecom for the next 4 billion people ICT for developing economies; rural telecom VoIP disruption of telephony NOT NOT VoIP as digital POTS http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/

3. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 3 Five-Nines is a Joke User perspective: One nine! 80% of business calls go to voice mail Vonage, CallVantage, Time Warner Digital Phone Service Digital POTS Lower cost, toll quality, five-nines Telephony warmed over What have we been doing for ten years?

4. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 4 Availability, not Presence Always present somewhere PC-based IM software recognizes when you havent touched keyboard recently Mobile handset always with me, and always on, but I may not take your call Recognize ringer on vibrate ? Location, but only for some friends, some times Recognize patterns I never take live calls from Joe, only text messages…

5. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 5 Helping People Connect Overcome todays silod applications Active Phone Book Choose person from buddy list Based on availability information One click for text, voice &/or video based on both parties immediate situations Quickly test availability Live connection (IM, PTT & voice calling, video) Near real time (SMS, VoiceSMS, photos, videos)

6. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 6 Who?

7. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 7 Who?

8. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 8 Who?

9. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 9 Who?

10. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 10 Who? Then, How!

11. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 11 Who? Then, How!

12. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 12 Community and Identity The real value for users Maslovs hierarchy of needs Belonging, esteem Teen usage: Mobile phone a social tool Revenue: i.e. telecom vs movies, TV & music Entertainment dwarfed by apps that foster community and/or promote self esteem

13. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 13 Internet Person-to-Person IM usage 1.5B users by 2007 according to Ovum Blogging, on-line communities # blogs doubling every 5 months MySpace, Facebook communities soaring Image hosting 14.7M unique visitors in Aug 05, up 400% since January Top refg sites: MySpace, Xanga, LiveJournal, Blogger Rapid growth of social networking

14. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 14 Community Formation MySpace Leveraged bands & music Facebook Leveraged college communities & events Facilitate natural communities Good UI necessary, but not sufficient Ubiquity also critical – walled gardens inhibit community formation

15. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 15 The Internet Today New services already available on the web For free, and with a rich user interface Brands well established Google, Skype, AOL, Amazon, eBay, MSN, MySpace, Flickr Far ahead of mobile operators Whats a mobile operator to do? Foster interoperability Focus on mobile, personal & immediate Whats a VoIP operator to do? User point of view; figure out mobility !

16. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 16 Its different in Asia… Ubiquitous mobile phones Mobile data works and is used Real broadband connectivity Korea, Japan, Hong Kong: 100 Mbps $25/month 30% of Koreans have CyWorld homepage 90% of teens ! WAP as important as Web

17. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 17

18. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 18 Developing Markets Mobile Internet is key Mobiles outnumber PCs China, India, Africa, Latin America, CIS If mobile IM worked across operators… Little opening for AOL, Yahoo, MSN Messenger

19. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 19 GSMA Ubiquitous Mobile IM Announced at 3GSM mid-February All Indian GSM networks; all major EU operators Target late 2006 interoperability Likely the only game for developing world Developed world ? Teenager has mobile phone but shares family PC with siblings. Flip to mobile IM? How fast? ! Serious threat to AOL, Yahoo & MSN instant messaging communities

20. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 20 Next-gen Communications Communities innovation Split: US, Asia, some EU Mobile innovation Asia leads, EU follows, US last Availability to become mobile issue Individual availability, presence, location, … Who will combine mobiles and Web 2.0 ?

21. www.nmscommunications.com Slide 21 Telecom Opportunity Communications driving global economic, social, and political benefits Underlying technologies improving exponentially 6.5 B people only 2.0 B mobile phones Enormous opportunity ahead! Have fun, help mankind, make money!

22. Brough Turner rbt@nmss.com Skype: brough http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/