1. PT PLN (PERSERO)
INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES: TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 1

2. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)
The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%.
It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation.
Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019.
DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account. 2

3. JAVA-BALI SYSTEM DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
IB : 10.2%
21 TWh
54 TWh
IT : 10,6%
11 TWh
28 TWh
JB : 8,97%
115 TWh
252 TWh
JAVA-BALI SYSTEM
Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year 3

4. Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu
INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%
NAD
72,7%
Category :
> 60 % % %
Sumut
75,5%
Kaltim
53,9%
Kalselteng
56,3%
Riau + Kepri
44,7%
Sulutenggo
51,2%
Kalbar
49,5%
Sumbar
67,6%
Sulteng
47,64%
Babel
48,4%
Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu
50,3%
Sulselrabar
55,8%
Maluku
53,5%
Bali
76,2%
Lampung
47,1%
Jabar+Banten
64,95%
Jateng+Yogya
70,2%
Jatim
61,6%
NTB
29,9%
NTT
21,7%
Papua + Irjabar
27,8% 4

5. POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available.
Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs.
However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process.
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process.
The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account. 5

6. POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.
Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available.
Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system.
PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development. 6

7. GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019
PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year

8. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)
PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007
PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007
PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007
4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007
5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007
6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007
7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007
8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007
9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008
10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012

9. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya
PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika
PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro
PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana
5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm
6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri
PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi Karya
8. PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group
9. PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia
10. PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons
11. PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya
PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya
13. PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW
14. PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta
15. PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia
16. PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
17. PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia

10. Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi
19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya
20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya
22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm

11. Fast Track Program Phase 2
More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program.
The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.
The capacity of the projects will be as follows:
Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW.
Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.
Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.

12. Fast Track Program Phase 2
The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.
The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year , however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability.
The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants.
Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.

13. Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2
REGION
Steam Coal PP (MW)
Combined Cycle PP (MW)
Geo PP (MW)
Hydro PP
(MW)
Total (MW)
JAVA-BALI -
1.200
2.137
1.000
4.337
OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI
2.616
240
2.596
174
5.626
TOTAL
(26%)
1.440
(14%)
4.733 (48%)
1.174 (12%)
9.963
(100%)

14. Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2
SUMATERA
PLTA : MW
PLTP : 2285 MW
PLTU : 1100 MW
PLTGU : MW
KALIMANTAN
PLTU : 840 MW
PLTGU : 120 MW
SULAWESI
PLTP : 195 MW
PLTU : 418 MW
MALUKU
PLTP : 40 MW
PLTU : 44 MW
PAPUA
PLTU : 114 MW
NTT
PLTP : 46 MW
PLTU : 30 MW
TOTAL
PLTA : MW
PLTP : MW
PLTU : MW
PLTGU : MW
TOTAL : MW
JAMALI
PLTP : MW
PLTU : MW
PLTGU : MW
PLTA : MW
NTB
PLTP :30 MW
PLTU :70 MW

15. Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2

16. TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNING JAVA-BALI 2008-201816

17. Project Name
COD
Financing Plan
Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh – Padangsidempuan)
2012
Loan JICA
Transmisi 275 kV Rengat – Garuda Sakti (220 km)
2014
unallocated
Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa ± 500 kV HVDC
2016
USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA
Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC
2015
USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC
USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia ± 250 kV HVDC
USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA
Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali
USD 420 juta, KE
Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa
USD 250 juta, IBRD
Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran – Pemalang – Mandirancan – Indramayu (±500 km)
USD 300 juta, unallocated

18. DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN
ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019:
MV : 181,000KMS  16,500 KMS/YEAR
LV : 249,500KMS  22,700 KMS/YEAR
DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER : 35,000 MVA  3,200 MVA/YEAR
ADDITIONAL COSTUMER : 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR

19. PLN INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

20. PLN + IPP INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBIS
MENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

21. PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

22. IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

23. SUMMARY For the next 10 years
The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)
Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects
Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018
Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels.
Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.

24. SUMMARY
Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).
Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.

25. Some strategic generation projects:
SUMMARY
Some strategic generation projects:
CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in
Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal).
Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB)
CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in
CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in (transferred to Java Bali system)
CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 25

26. Some strategic transmission projects:
SUMMARY
Some strategic transmission projects:
HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016.
Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010
Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010
275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011
500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015 26

27. PT PLN (PERSERO)
Thank You 27