1. Measuring VET participation by SES over time Tom Karmel and Patrick Lim CEET conference, 1 November 2013

2. SEIFA Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD) Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) Index of education and occupation (IEO) Index of economic resources (IER)

3. Population (POA) Population (SLA) Quintile2006201120062011 115.016.013.216.0 217.617.721.820.6 320.419.720.420.1 421.421.522.923.9 525.725.121.719.5 Total 100.0 Quintiles aint quintiles

4. 15 to 19 Year Olds 20 to 24 Year Olds Quintile 2006 POA 2006 SLA 2006 POA 2006 SLA 114.913.314.512.8 217.521.515.820.0 320.2 20.420.1 421.322.922.124.1 525.822.026.722.6 And even worse for particular age groups

5. 2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA) Qualification12345 Diploma and above2.01.61.82.32.4 Certificate IV1.41.51.61.41.3 Certificate III7.99.5 8.76.5 Certificate II10.410.69.36.95.4 Certificate I2.92.6 1.81.1 Non-AQF4.84.53.22.92.8 Module Only0.50.70.40.20.1 Total29.931.028.324.119.5 VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2006

6. 2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA) Qualification12345 Diploma and above1.8 2.12.42.0 Certificate IV2.12.32.5 1.9 Certificate III13.415.214.313.18.4 Certificate II14.014.611.68.35.7 Certificate I2.52.1 1.51.1 Non-AQF3.02.92.21.7 Module Only0.6 0.30.2 Total37.339.535.229.820.9 VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2011

7. 2006 using 2006 Quintiles Qualification12345 Diploma and above2.42.1 2.52.9 Certificate IV2.02.11.9 1.7 Certificate III7.27.97.06.85.5 Certificate II2.92.62.21.61.0 Certificate I1.00.7 0.40.3 Non-AQF3.43.12.42.21.9 Module Only0.50.70.40.30.2 Total19.219.116.715.713.5 VET participation rates for 20-24 years, 2006

8. 2011 using 2011 quintiles Qualification12345 Diploma and above3.03.22.93.33.0 Certificate IV3.33.83.3 2.9 Certificate III10.511.19.28.56.5 Certificate II3.83.02.11.71.1 Certificate I1.00.70.50.40.2 Non-AQF2.2 1.71.51.3 Module Only0.6 0.30.2 Total24.424.620.118.915.1 VET participation for 20-24 years, 2011

9. 2011 Quintiles 2006 Quintiles 12345UnknownTotal 1 81153100100 2 166318210 100 3 219641400100 4 13147390100 5 00111880100 Unknown 130041767100 2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA

10. 2011 Quintiles 2006 Quintiles12345UnknownTotal 1 88110011 100 2 157411000 100 3 018691200 100 4 00167572 100 5 00110881 100 Unknown 9060086 100 2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA

11. Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypothetical example.

12. Quintile 2006 collection using 2006 2011 collection using 2006 quintiles 2011 collection using 2011 quintiles 140.544.942.1 245.348.544.4 332.436.636.2 424.225.227.4 519.619.421.3 Total 15 to 19 year olds30.733.0 15-19 year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA

13. Quintile Actual change 2006 - 2011 Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using 2006 quintiles Difference between actual change and estimated change % of actual change 2006 - 2011 11.74.5-2.8-169.1 2-0.93.2-4.1458.3 33.84.2-0.4-10.9 43.21.02.268.1 51.7-0.21.9110.6 Total 15 to 19 year olds2.3 -0.1-2.4 15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA

14. Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)

15. Quintile Actual Change 2006 - 2011 Estimated change 2006 - 2011 using the 2006 Difference between actual and estimated change % of actual change 2006 - 2011 17.49.01.621.4 28.510.01.517.9 36.98.41.622.9 45.66.50.814.4 51.44.02.6182.5 Total 15 to 19 year olds2.22.60.419.8 15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA

16. Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 15-19 years, by SES quintile, 2011

17. Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 20-24 years, by SES quintile, 2011

18. Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 24-64 years, by SES quintile, 2011

19. Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)

20. More work to be done Same exercise for higher education Figure out how to analyse accuracy of estimates at qualification level

21. Summary Quintiles ain’t quintiles. Important to calculate participation rates rather than use 20% as a reference. Equity issue in VET not obvious. In respect of SEIFA, level of regional classification matters. SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test methodology every census.