1. Introductory presentation by the UNFCCC secretariat Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004 Stelios Pesmajoglou, UNFCCC secretariat

2. Contents Mandate Objectives Compilation and synthesis of the 3 rd national communications Issues to discuss – Documents Deliverables Organization of work

3. Mandate SBSTA 19 – Milan, December 2003 –Discussions on review of methodological work under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol –Parties requested the secretariat to organize a workshop on projections in the second half of 2004 Contribution to the preparation of 4 th NCs from Annex I Parties

4. Objectives Technical discussions on methodological issues relating to the preparation of projections Coverage: –Methods, Assumptions, Indicators, Key parameters, Sensitivity analysis - Dissemination of methodologies Open exchange of views and of experiences with the preparation of projections Lessons learnt and identification of areas for further improvements Reporting guidelines for Annex I Parties will not be discussed or re-negotiated

5. Compilation and synthesis The secretariat completed the C&S of the 3 rd NCs from Annex I Parties in 2003 (FCCC/SBI/2003/7 and Add.1-4) FCCC/SBI/2003/7/Add.3 dealt with the projections information reported in the NCs

6. Some highlights of the C&S Overall, the reporting on projections has improved in comparison with the previous NCs Considerable efforts made by Parties in the preparation of the projections Some Parties have not reported their GHG projections in full compliance with the UNFCCC guidelines Typical deficiencies are the absence of a GHG projection for transport and forestry, the absence of a projection for HFCs, PFCs and SF6, and the limitation of the projection period to 2010 C&S did NOT address methodological issues in detail; some discussions were conducted at in-depth reviews but no comprehensive general discussion until now

7. Issues to discuss - Documents Three working papers prepared for the workshop based on: –The results of the C&S of 3 rd NCs –In-depth review reports –Views of Parties (FCCC/SBSTA/2004/MISC.10) –Secretariat experience The papers contain issues that could form the basis of the discussions: –Participants may identify other issues and/or reformulate the issues presented in the papers

8. Deliverables Conclusions and/or recommendations that could include: –Identification of major methodological challenges for preparing GHG projections for national communications under UNFCCC guidelines –Highlights from national experiences in the preparation of GHG projections, including approaches/methods for overcoming the encountered difficulties Report to SBSTA 21 (Buenos Aires, December 2004) Input to the upcoming workshop on the 4 th NCs (Dublin, 30 September - 1 October 2004)

9. Organization of work Proposal for the organization of work: –Monday: Plenary session on general and cross-cutting issues –Tuesday: Two parallel breakout groups: Group 1: Energy, Transport, Industry and Waste Group 2: Agriculture and LULUCF –Wednesday: Plenary session Report of groups Pending issues Finalization of conclusions Proposal for the presentations: –Focus on the mandated scope (identification of methodological challenges, national experiences in solving key problems) –Suggestions for possible conclusions/recommendations –No need to review/discuss projected national GHG trends