1. State of the Data: Migration, Fuel Costs, Community Viability Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage in partnership with Alaska Native Policy Center Joan Kane, Executive Director Full report: Full report: www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/fuelcosts.html Denali Commission  28 Feb 2008  Juneau

2. Initial Research Questions 1. Has migration accelerated? 2. If so, who is moving, to where, and why? 3. If so, are fuel costs a major driver? 4. What other factors may be causing migration? 5. How are fuel costs affecting subsistence participation? 6. How are fuel costs affecting the viability of local governments, utilities, and local businesses? 7. Are there major factors – other than fuel costs – affecting community viability and migration, such as lack of employment? 8. Do regional patterns emerge? Can data be collected and reported regionally?

3. Topics for Today Migration flows Reasons for migration –Role of fuel costs –Other factors Opportunities for better data and better understanding...a research memorandum and digital - Web literature archive are also being prepared

4. Sources Major primary data sources: –U.S. Census –DOLWD (population, migration), DHHS (births, deaths) –ISER Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA): 2003; n=663 Natives; North Slope, Nana, Bering Straits regions) –First Alaskans Institute Attitudinal Survey (2007; n=902: 600 Natives + 302-non-Native; statewide) Literature: 40+ papers circa 1960-present, most of which use the same data sources

5. SLiCA survey region

6. Resource booms fueled statewide growth and migration Gold SalmonPipeline Oil money WW2 / Military Pulses of migration shown in yellow Salmon boom shows permanent population does not always follow economic boom source: ISER, Census, DOL

7. Net Migration– Statewide 1980-2007 source: AK DOL (pfd)

8. Net Migration: Rural Census Areas 1980-2007 source: AK DOL (pfd)

9. Declining births may turn migration into absolute population decline Net migration – rural AK Births – rural AK source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence

10. Wade-Hampton Census Area: More people born than leaving source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence

11. Overall, no long-term acceleration in migration However, Rates vary dramatically across communities Smallest communities are losing population –Of communities with 100 or fewer people in 2000, two-thirds have lost population. –This has been going on for a long time (eg 1800s to present) (Alonso & Rust 1976)

12. Cumulative net migration during 2000-2007 % of 2000 pop., by census area

13. Age structure of 21 of Alaska’s smallest communities, year 2000 source: US Census 2000

14. Alaska age structure - 2000

15. Why are people moving? Fuel costs Other factors

16. Primary energy consumption per Alaskan barrels oil per person per year

17. Effect of recent fuel price run-up...... Average person in a PCE community uses 1,000 gal of diesel & gasoline Average price increase = $2.00/gal Arithmetic: $2,000 -- 8,000 increase per household per year –(includes electricity, community buildings) source: ISER/Colt “Energy Flow in Alaska 2005”

18. Why did you move? FAI survey open-ended: Why did you move away from your rural community? What motivated you to go live somewhere else? Alaska Native responde nts n=189 Non- natives n=47 Work-related reasons 58%67% Family22%5% Other opportunities 15%17% New experiences 12%23% Other needs 5%5% source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007)

19. What, if anything, would it take for you to move back to your rural community? What would prompt you to go back to live there? Alaska Native respondents n=113 Non- natives n=28 Nothing / Don’t Know 67%76% Opportunities19%7% Family4%14% Other needs 7%4% source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007) What would it take for you to return? (open-ended)

20. Broadly speaking, Neither FAI nor SLiCA respondents mention fuel costs in open-ended questions Social factors / “Gorillas in the Room” –Alcohol –Public safety –Domestic violence

21. Example to ponder: North Slope high wages, low fuel costs (subsidized), police officers, subsistence opportunities –People still leave

22. Data Opportunities: secondary data DOL migration data based on PFD zip codes –continue net migration by census area –add net migration by age-sex –add origin-destination –add net migration by community

23. Opportunities: new primary data Panel study of ANCSA shareholders –Sample frame exists –Attrition would be minimized –provides Alaska-specific data (subsistence, quality of life...) Person 1 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data.... Person 2 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data.... Person 3 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data.... : etc. :

24. Primary Data ANCSA shareholder survey does not pick up young people; hence, Survey of rural college students, rural high school students (tough), or similar subgroup –FAI did pilot survey at AFN youth conference

25. Other opportunities Comprehensive housing survey Omnibus social survey –characteristics –behavior –expenditures –attitudes

26. Thank You! www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu www.firstalaskans.org