1. National Board of Trade Lena Johansson Director General

3. National Board of Trade
Agency for foreign trade and trade policy
Promote free trade and transparent rules
Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade

4. An effective Internal Market
Objectives
An effective Internal Market
An open trade policy in the EU
A strong multilateral international trading system

5. Ljuset är proportionell mot den ekonomiska aktiviteten

6. Ljuset (ekonomiska aktiviteten) är mest intensiv vid kusten och navigerbara floder

7. Var ”ljusnar” det och varför?
- Framförallt i länder som integrerar sig i världsekonomin, t.ex. BRICs

8. The Swedish Government:
….. create growth and employment in Sweden by promoting free trade and dismantling of trade barriers

9. Developing countries Analyses of developing countries perspective
Competence and capacity building programmes in developing countries
Open Trade Gate Sweden

10. International trade and development
Why do people trade?
Situation and developments in world trade
Trade and Climate Change
Development perspective
Swedish trade patterns and developments
Trade policies

11. Free trade Trade creates welfare
Sweden is very dependant on international trade

12. Swedish trade dependance
Exports/GDP > 50 %
Imports/GDP = almost 50 %

13. Källa: WTO

14. Exports of goods and services, percent of GDP (1960-2007)

15. Exports/GDP Global 10 % 20 % 30 % Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 %
Global % 20 % %
Sweden % 35 % > 50 %

16. Källa: UNCTAD

17. Foreign investments/GDP
Global % %
Sweden % > 50 %

18. Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country
FDI´s grow even faster

19. International trade is still regional
Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé = 23 % of world trade
Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade - Europe 31 % (single market 25 %) - Asia 14 % - North America 8 %

20. Inter-regional handel
787mdr $
(6 %)
477mdr $
(4 %)
103 mdr $
(1 %)
4243mdr $
(31%)
1108 mdr $
(8%)
951 mdr $
(7 %)
1889mdr $
(14%)
93,4 mdr $
(1%)
282 mdr $
(2%)
40,5 mdr $
(0,3 %)
122 mdr $
(1 %)
315 mdr $
(2 %)
1148 mdr $
(8%)
Intra regional handel
Inter-regional handel
Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008

21. Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)
EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total handel
Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)

22. Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)
Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel
Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)

23. Här ser vi en bild av hur den ekonomiska krisen slog mot exporten
Här ser vi en bild av hur den ekonomiska krisen slog mot exporten. Sverige fick, om ni följer den svarta linjen, inte en lika kraftig svacka som USA, Tyskland och Finland. Totalt har svensk export klarat sig ungefär lika bra som exporten i EU som helhet. Men även om svensk ekonomi som helhet går bättre än många andra länders så har återhämtningen för exporten gått långsammare än för de övriga länderna i denna jämförese.
Källa: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tulli, Finland, Eurostat och SCB

24. The public opinion
Support for international trade is strong, but the trend is negative?
During this period, we have seen a trend of decreasing trade barriers and more integration between countries from trade in goods, service and investments.
Support for international trade is strong. When asked the question ”is trade good for you country” , the majority of people answer yes in some of the important trading counties in the world.
(when asked, in another study, about their support for imports specifically, the level of support was a lot lower.
But public support for international trade seems to be decreasing. We see this trend especially in the US.
So I will end this presentation with this small questions mark. What does this mean for the future of trade? The Doha Round has run into problem, and has no been able to meet any of the deadlines set.
With an economic crisis, the their might be pressure on governments to implement protectionist policies. With less support for trade, it might be difficult for government to resist this.
Out next speaker will shed some light on what has happened in this regards.

25. The public opinion (2)
Important to note that support for imports much smaller than for trade

26. Decreasing protectionism, 1995-2007
25 new WTO-members
Decrease in tarrifs and quotas
Trade facilitiation at the border
World trade encreased by 170 %
Trade in services increasing
Liberalized rules for foreign investments

27. Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country
FDI´s grow even faster

28. been dramatically liberalised
Conclusion:
Trade policy has,
almost by any measure,
been dramatically liberalised
almost everywhere
since 1995

29. Trends in world trade – long term
Global market place
Global Value Chains
Goods -> Services
Servicification
e-commerce
Other tendencies - short term?
Crises effects, politics
New protectionism
Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally
Local production
Climate concerns?
Development aspects
Emerging markets

30. Export by regions (1963 och 2007)50

31. Fragmenterad produktion “The first unbundling” – Baldwin
Greater understanding for fragmentation and trade statistics
IO for a deeper understanding of the dependency in Swedish production and exports on imports
VS measures share of imports in exports, direct and indirect M based on IO-tables
Incl. services + goods and services based on their use
Doesn’t measure the whole fragmentation chain, but shows M-dependency
Olika arbetsinsatser genomförs på samma plats (i samma land)

32. Fragmenterad produktion “The second unbundling” – Baldwin
“Trade in tasks” - arbetsuppgifterna sprids ut över världen Fragmentering kan ske på flera olika sätt – inom eller utom företaget, i hemlandet eller i utlandet Offshoring och outsourcing leder till handel med insatser
Greater understanding for fragmentation and trade statistics
IO for a deeper understanding of the dependency in Swedish production and exports on imports
VS measures share of imports in exports, direct and indirect M based on IO-tables
Incl. services + goods and services based on their use
Doesn’t measure the whole fragmentation chain, but shows M-dependency

33. A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…
Made in Sweden?
A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…
Trade statistics harder to understand
Swedish car not only produced in Sweden, a typical Swedish car only 50 % Swedish
Ipod China – US, authors calculate only a few percent go to China
Buy American - Boeing - 43 subcontractors, 135 production facilities around the world. 70 % of components outside the US.
Jobs
Lamy - “In the past, goods were made in Mexico, Mauritius or Malaysia. Today, goods are made in the world”
Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

34. One third of Sweden´s exports consists of imports

35. Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller

36. Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden
OECD-average: 31 %
Inputs - goods and services from EU countries and third countries.
Our 33,5 % is slightly higher than the OECD calculated average of 31 %. Compare Luxembourg and Russia
The imported content of exports rose from 30 % (1995) to 33,5 % (2005)
Swedish exports ”less Swedish” than before. True for almost all sectors

37. Sectors
Tjänstesektorer

38. En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America?
43 subcontractors
Spread on 135 production facilities in the world
Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S. and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden
70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S.
”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

39. Ett växande avstånd mellan företagens verklighet och handelspolitiken
“While the nature of global trade has changed, trade regulation in the EU and other OECD economies has remained largely the same.”

40. “Everybody is in Services”
– The Impact of Servicification in Manufacturing on Trade and Trade Policy
(under tryck)

41. E-commerce
New options
New barriers
Cloud computing

42. Trends in world trade – long term
Global market place
Global Value Chains
Goods -> Services
Servicification
e-commerce
But also
Other tendencies - short term?
Crises effects, politics
New protectionism
Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally
Local production
Climate concerns?
Development aspects
Emerging markets

43. The relationship between international trade and transport modes
Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006)
Källa: UNCTAD (2008)

44. CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector
Källor: IEA (2011) och
OECD (2010b)

45. Emission intensity for different modes
CO2-utsläpp per ton-km
Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)

46. How does trade effect CO2 emissions?
Transports  
Production: location, methods
Innovations and technical developments are spread

47. A surgery
Made in Sweden?
A commute
Made in Hong Kong?

48. Swedish trade with other EU countries
Exports 61 %
Imports 72 %

49. Källa: SCB

50. Källa: SCB

52. Varuexport till Sveriges fem största exportländer
Källa: SCB

53. Varuimport från Sveriges fem största importländer
Källa: SCB

54. What companies regard as their home market?

55. Vad hindrar att företagen ser EU som sin hemmamarknad?

56. Ser företagen den inre marknaden som ett hot eller möjlighet?

57. SOLVIT Centre
Provides assistance to companies and private citizens encountering trade barriers
Free of charge

58. Sveriges varuexport och världsmarknadsandel

59. Swedish companies’ problem with exports (%)
Source: National Board of Trade (2010)

60. Larger companies experience increased trade barriers
Do you find that customs duties or other trade barriers have increased since the start of the financial crisis?
Yes No
Don’t know
Total
7.0
87.9
5.1
Size of company
Small
6.6
88.0
5.4
Medium-sized
9.4
88.1
2.5
Large
7.9
85.0
7.2

61. WTO
Members (153)
Applicant
countries (30)

62. Key issues in Doha round
Agriculture
Industrial Goods, NAMA
Services Trade

63. Genomsnittlig tullnivå för industrivaror i i-länder

64. Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder

65. Notified to GATT/WTO and in force
FTAs notified and active ( )
100
200
300
400
500
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Number of FTAs
Notified to GATT/WTO
Notified to GATT/WTO and in force
WTO
is founded
Source: WTO RTA gateway

66. EU:s new approach in FTAs
Global Europe
EU:s economic interest
Abolish all tariffs and other import restrictions
Include services and investments
Non Tariff Measures
Sectors
Sustainable development
Agreement with South Korea

67. EU trade policy
Common policy
EU acts as one part in WTO
Customs Union
Import Quotas
Antidumping and other safeguards
Free Trade Agreements
Common Agicultural Policy, CAP

68. “Nations do not trade, nor do sectors. It is firms that trade”
“… This simple truth makes it clear that understanding the firm-level facts is essential to good policy-making in Europe. The view that it is important to focus on the firm rather than the sector is the single most important message of recent developments in international economics”.
Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet: European Firms in a Global Economy (EFIGE)

69. The National Board of Trade reports on global value chains
2007: Adding value to the European Economy
2010: Made in Sweden? (engelska och svenska)
2010: At your service/Till er tjänst
2010: Servicification of Swedish manufacturing
2012: Business reality and trade policy – Closing the gap

70. Trade related Development Cooperation
Contribute to developing countries
trade possibilities and
trade negotiation capacity

71. Surveys and publications
Reports in Swedish and English
Website: