1. The demographic challenge - A regional introduction - demography= the science of a populations distribution, size and composition Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

2. Västerbotten 2030- a population prognosis The county´s population continues to grow, but growth will vary:  between towns and municipalities  between women and men  between immigrants and Swedish- born  between younger and older

3. Change in population 2008-2030 Municipality/Countymenwomentotal Nordmaling-259-373-632 Bjurholm-153-130-283 Vindeln-264-272-536 Robertsfors-121-189-311 Norsjö-181-214-395 Malå-231-234-466 Storuman-428-461-889 Sorsele-258-256-514 Dorotea-274-255-529 Vännäs-84-95-179 Vilhelmina-439-514-952 Åsele-342-337-679 Umeå7 3966 54913 945 Lycksele-430-567-997 Skellefteå465-725-259 Västerbotten4 3961 9286 324 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

4. Change in population 2008-2030 Municipality/ County0-19 year20-64 year65+ yearTotal Nordmaling-362-607337-632 Bjurholm-72-147-64-283 Vindeln-142-609215-536 Robertsfors-102-670461-311 Norsjö-73-461138-395 Malå-102-466102-466 Storuman-256-68249-889 Sorsele-155-343-17-514 Dorotea-110-44222-529 Vännäs-171-446438-179 Vilhelmina-281-814142-952 Åsele-213-466-0-679 Umeå1 8792 7469 32013 945 Lycksele-400-1 123526-997 Skellefteå-832-3 3093 881-259 Västerbotten-1 392-7 83615 5526 324 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

5. Population in Västerbotten distributed in one- year classes

6. Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 Population in Västerbotten distributed in one- year classes

7. 0-2 year -527 3-12 year 2 964 13-35 year -7 528 36-41 year 1 418 42-63 year -5 642 64+ year15 638 Total6 324 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes

8. Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 Population development in Västerbotten 1970-2030, divided by age group and year

9. Number of people in working age per pensioner 19702030 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

10. 1970/233 133/58,1 procent 2008/257 812/58,5 procent 2030/264 136/54,1 procent Dependency ratio decreases Dependency ratio increases Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 20-64 year 0-19 year, 65 + year Dependency ratio = the ratio between the number of children, adolescents and older relative to the population of working age

11. The proportion of young and old in relation to people in economically active ages(20-64 year) Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 Dependency ratio in the county of Västerbotten

12. The dependency ratio varies between the municipalities Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009 Dependency ratio ( the ratio between the number of children, adolescents and older relative to the population of working age ) Year 1970 Year 2008 Year 2030 Per 100 persons

13. Who will take over the companies when the baby- boomer generation (born in the forties) has retired? More than one in three workers is older than 55 years. The current report shows that thousands of businesses are at risk when nearly half of all small business owners say that a generation or ownership issue within ten years Who is going to do the job when the need for care and welfare increase dramatically? Current population prognosis of the county shows thas the number of people in age 80 or older will dubble until the year of 2030. At the same time the number o people in working age will decrease. When the economy turns, will labour shortages hinder the company’sgrowth opportunities? In the small business survey, which is published twice a year, companies respond on the issue of the single biggest growth obstacle - demand, employment law, finance, would not grow, etc.. Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

14. To meet the demographic challenge requires a combination of measures!  Higher labor productivity  Increased proportion of the population fo working age in work  Longer working lives  More people of working age  Attractive workplaces, habitats and creative individuals Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009