1. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment October 2013

2. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment What is the PCNA? A shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats facing Avon and Somerset It aims to:- – Inform our planning for 2014 and beyond – Develop and inform our understanding of what works It builds upon a wide range of partnership information and analysis It is refreshed on an annual basis

3. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment What information have we used? Constabulary Reviews Operating Model Operation Check Predicting Demand Profile Value for Money Profile Strategic Policing Requirement Constabulary Reviews Operating Model Operation Check Predicting Demand Profile Value for Money Profile Strategic Policing Requirement Partnership Assessments:- NIM Assessment 2013 Joint Strategic Needs Assessments (Public Health) Community Safety Assessments: Safer Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Safer Bristol, North Somerset, BaNES Partnership Assessments:- NIM Assessment 2013 Joint Strategic Needs Assessments (Public Health) Community Safety Assessments: Safer Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Safer Bristol, North Somerset, BaNES Socio-Demographic Info Census data / Topic Reports Changing population profile ACORN profiles Socio-Demographic Info Census data / Topic Reports Changing population profile ACORN profiles Analytical Profiles Thematic profiles e.g. Disproportionate Victimisation Quality of Life in Bristol PCC priority profiles Analytical Profiles Thematic profiles e.g. Disproportionate Victimisation Quality of Life in Bristol PCC priority profiles Partnership data Criminal Justice data Re-offending profiles Criminogenic need Crime / ASB statistics Partnership data Criminal Justice data Re-offending profiles Criminogenic need Crime / ASB statistics Consultation OPCC Public Consultation PACT priorities 2013 Police & Crime Survey Consultation OPCC Public Consultation PACT priorities 2013 Police & Crime Survey Organisational Info. Performance reviews Risk registers PESTELO analyses I-Quanta Comparisons Organisational Info. Performance reviews Risk registers PESTELO analyses I-Quanta Comparisons National Resources POLKA / College of Policing UCL Changing crime trends Crime Survey for England and Wales LAPE / Alcohol-related harm I-Quanta Comparisons National Resources POLKA / College of Policing UCL Changing crime trends Crime Survey for England and Wales LAPE / Alcohol-related harm I-Quanta Comparisons

4. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment We scanned the changing environment Environmental Demographic change Population growth Migration Increasing diversity Economic Hard pressed families Rising personal debt Under-employment Price inflation Social Prevalent alcohol use Use of legal highs Housing reform Young people (NEET) Welfare Safeguarding Mental Health demand Welfare Reform Alcohol related harm Political / Organisational Austerity Organisational reform Commissioning Trust and confidence Technology Use of social media Mobile technology New criminal tactics New cyber technol.

5. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Overall risk of crime and ASB is falling but

6. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment There is substantial unmet need and significant levels of unreported crime Ranging from low level incidents to most serious crimes and threats – ASB, serious sexual offences, CSE, domestic abuse, hate crime, FGM, Human Trafficking, terrorism Some groups are at a higher risk – Young people, BME communities, deprived neighbourhoods We can not fully assess risk in these areas, but we can improve intelligence, confidence and pro-activity

7. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment We are listening to what matters to our communities

8. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment And the services people expect …FROM THE POLICE Be there when needed Do what they say they are going to do Treat people fairly and with respect Work visibly in the community Be accessible Tackle the issues that impact greatest on quality of life …FROM THE POLICE Be there when needed Do what they say they are going to do Treat people fairly and with respect Work visibly in the community Be accessible Tackle the issues that impact greatest on quality of life …FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE Rehabilitation – esp. drugs and alcohol Still penalties for those that cause the most harm Restorative community-based reparation …FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE Rehabilitation – esp. drugs and alcohol Still penalties for those that cause the most harm Restorative community-based reparation VICTIMS OF CRIME Respond quickly Explain the process / next steps Keep victim informed Treat with consideration and respect VICTIMS OF CRIME Respond quickly Explain the process / next steps Keep victim informed Treat with consideration and respect DOMESTIC ABUSE VICTIMS More female officers Listen. Believe me, don’t judge Show you care / give support Take the issue seriously DOMESTIC ABUSE VICTIMS More female officers Listen. Believe me, don’t judge Show you care / give support Take the issue seriously BURGLARY VICTIMS Take action - investigate Give feedback BURGLARY VICTIMS Take action - investigate Give feedback

9. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment The Partnership Environment is changing and becoming more complex

10. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Key Partnership risks include The Changing Environment: Increasing safeguarding demands Pressure on low level acquisitive crime and ASB Opportunities for organised crime and exploitation High levels of alcohol-related harm and victimisation Challenge of meeting diversifying community needs Specific groups being disproportionate affected - – Young people – People with mental health needs – Disadvantaged / deprived communities

11. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Key Partnership risks include Effectively managing demand: No joined up picture of community issue resolution Informing and responding to the public/victim voice Maintaining visibility and accessibility Increasing confidence to report serious crime Limitations to knowledge of high risk hidden harm Disproportionate demand – young people – priority neighbourhoods – BME communities

12. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Key Partnership risks include The changing partnership environment: Budget reductions – Dis-investment, retracting to core responsibilities, organisational reform Changing commissioning landscape – Complex delivery structures, operational management, loss of knowledge and expertise CJS efficiency / effectiveness – capacity, file quality Victim need / satisfaction – no holistic understanding Culture and behaviour: PBR, integrity

13. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Recommendations The Changing Environment: Invest in prevention to minimise future demand – Alcohol, diversionary activities, priority neighbourhoods – Advice, information, signposting Increase focus on safeguarding from serious harm – Agency roles and responsibilities – Mental heath, young people, cyber enabled crime, OCGs Develop collective knowledge and capability in response to diversifying population

14. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Recommendations Effectively managing demand: Improve processes for engaging and empowering communities to resolve issues of local concern Invest in improving understanding of and response to hidden harm – Information sharing, research, analysis, 3rd party reporting Renewed focus on what works – Improvements in inbuilt security measures, partnership working, techniques and practices

15. Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment Recommendations The changing partnership environment: Improve cross agency co-ordination and planning – Planning for change, managing demand at first point of contact, roles and responsibilities, integrated services Partnership working with a greater focus on the most problematic issues, cases and localities – IOM, Troubled Families, priority neighbourhoods Improve understanding of victim satisfaction and experience across the CJS