1. How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050 Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIF Chicago September, 19, 2013

2. Long Term Fundamentals U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population Huge resource base Economic system most resilient among advanced countries Affordable housing attracts key demographic groups Dispersion and decentralization is the future

3. More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

4. Labor Force Growth U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

5. Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population 65 & OVER PERSONS PER 15-64 YEARS Calculated from UN Population Prospects: 2010 Revision

6. Future Drivers of Growth Resurgence of Basic Industry Rise of Growth Corridors Role of Immigration Millennials, Seniors and the role of families drive dispersion

7. Ag Exports Increasing Driven by solid worldwide demand, increased productivity, and strong commodity prices, America’s ag sector has seen overall export levels steadily increase over the past decade. Source: USDA Economic Research Service

8. Leading in Gas Production

10. Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken

11. Source: EMSI Complete Employment, 2011.4

13. A High Economic Multiplier Activity Generated by $1 of Sector GDP

14. Source: EMSI Class of Worker Employment, 2012.2

15. MAP by Forbes Magazine

16. 2013-2023 JOB GROWTH % CHANGE Research by EMSI, Inc.

17. Population trends

18. Domestic Migration by State: 2000-2009 10 LARGEST STATES Data from Census Bueau

19. Gaining States

20. Declustering: The New Demography Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities Shift to opportunity regions Social trends strongly pro- suburban US Population growth will increase interest “flyover country”

21. Net Domestic Migration by Population MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-09, 2010-12 From Census Bureau Data

22. PROJECTED CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS 2012-2017 Research by Pitney Bowes Corp.

25. Housing Preferences: Realtors Survey 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY Figure 25

26. Population Growth by Distance from Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 Figure 26 Data from Census Bureau

28. Fastest Growing Counties Over 100,000 2010-2012 Data from Census Bureau

29. Groups Shaping our Future Demography – Key demographic groups: Immigrants, Millennials, Aging Boomers --- mostly in suburbs Millennials start to grow up Shift in geography of family: key to long-term growth

30. Figure 30 White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census

31. Source: Myers & Pitkin Foreign Born Share of New Households US: 1970-2010 Figure 31

32. Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions Annual Average, 2001-2008 Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates

35. Empty Nesters: To Less Dense Areas MAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS 65-74 Population in 2010 Compared to 55-64 in 2000 Source: US Census Data

36. 90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move - AARP “They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.” - Washington-area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula

37. Millennials rival Boomers U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008

39. Millennials and the Family 85% plan to get married 77% probably or definitely want children Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007

40. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates Millennial Life Style Choices COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS Figure 40 Current Residence Ideal Place to Live

41. Absolute Change: College Graduates HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: MAJOR METRO AREAS: 2007-9 52 Metropolitan Areas over Million Population 2007

42. Change in 5-17 Population: 2000-2010 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES Source: Census Data

43. No matter how many communes anybody invents, the family always creeps back. Margaret Mead

44. JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.

45. Questions and Comment