1. EVIDENCE-BASED TARGETING A New Approach to Juvenile Crime Prevention

2. Evidence-Based Models Guide HOW You Serve Evidence-Based Targeting Guides WHO You Serve

3. Grant Funding is Shrinking Two wars Tax cuts Economic recession Rising energy costs Subprime mortgage bailout Costly (and more frequent?) natural disasters WHY?

4. Need to Target Limited Resources Option 1: Wait Until Kids Get Arrested Option 2: MOVE UPSTREAM

5. 54 Risk Factors! Being Male Being Poor Being a Gang Member

6. We Need Weighted Risk Factors

7. The Standard Approach Survey Your Community Identify the Most Common Risk Factors Choose Which of the Most Common Risk Factors to Target

8. The Standard Approach is WEAK!

9. To Maximize Effectiveness DONT Target the Most Common Risk Factors Target Those UNCOMMON Risk Factors (Or Combinations of Risk Factors) Most Closely Associated With Crime

10. The Challenge How To Identify the Most Significant Risk Factors

11. The Yonkers JCEC Database Uses Unique IDs to Maintain Confidentiality Unique IDs Based on System Used for HIV Records Cross-References Multiple Data Sets

12. The Yonkers JCEC Database Police Data School Data Social Service Data Census Data

13. Police Data Juvenile Arrests

14. School Data Truancy Suspensions Serious School Incidents Special Education Status

15. Social Service Data Foster Care

16. Census Data Gender Age High Poverty Census Tracts (>20%)

17. The Pyramid of Risk 4 326,071 All Youth Aged 7-15 7 513,206 Males Aged 7-15 10 76,614 Aged 10-14, High Poverty 36 21709 Grades 7-8, 20+ Absences 38 24230 Grades 1-12, 3-Day Suspension 49 41170 Aged 11-13, Arrested in 2003 128 6141 Grades 6-8, 20+ Absences AND 3-Day Suspension # Arrests (Per 100, 3 Years) # Arrested (Per 100, 3 Years) Group Size (1 Year) Risk Factor

20. Recommendations for Providers 1. Target the Highest Risk-Groups HOW? Use the Pyramid of Risk

21. Recommendations for Providers 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS! HOW? Provide One-On-One Services Mentoring Functional Family Therapy Scatter in Pro-Social Groups

22. Recommendations for Providers 3. Track Arrests (The Ultimate Outcome Measure) HOW? Preserve Confidentiality Obtain Parental Consent Give Program Participant Names to Police Get Back ONLY Aggregate Number of Arrests

23. Recommendations for Providers 4. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline HOW? See Sample Program Outcomes Form

24. Recommendations for Providers 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented HOW? Calculate Yonkers Baseline for Your Group Compare Your Results to Estimated Baseline Calculate Estimated Number of Arrests Prevented Divide Costs By Number of Arrests Prevented

25. Recommendations for Providers 1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS 3. Track Arrests 4. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

26. Recommendations for Communities 1. Share This Information CDBG Applicants Weed & Seed Programs Youth Bureau-Funded Agencies Other Youth-Serving Agencies

27. Recommendations for Communities 2. Survey % of Highest-Risk Youth Currently Served CDBG Youth Bureau NYS DCJS Grant Funding Other Locally-Controlled Grant Funding for Youth

28. Recommendations for Communities 3. Use School Data to Identify Specific High-Risk Youth Identify Chronic Truants Identify Youth with Serious School Incidents HOW? Identify Youth with Multiple Suspensions

29. Recommendations for Communities 4. Use Police Data to Track Real Outcomes Give Programs Group-Level Arrest Data HOW? Compare Across Similar Programs Compare to Baseline Data

30. Recommendations for Communities 5. Refocus Existing Youth Funding for Greater Impact Use Best Practice Programs Target Highest-Risk Youth AND Prioritize Funding for Programs That: HOW? Report Outcomes on Actual Arrests Prioritize Funding for Training in Best Practices

31. Recommendations for Communities 6. Mobilize the CPS Educational Neglect Process County-Funded Investigation & Assessment County-Funded Intervention & Tracking Hire PD&D to Coordinate a 1-Year Plan HOW? BENEFITS:

32. Recommendations for Communities 7. Localize the Pyramid of Need Identify Highest-Risk Groups More Accurately Provide More Accurate Baseline Data Have PD&D Calculate Local Arrest Rates HOW? BENEFITS:

33. Recommendations for Communities 1. Share This Information 2. Survey % of Highest-Risk Youth Currently Served 3. Use School Data to Identify Specific High-Risk Youth 4. Use Police Data to Track Real Outcomes 5. Refocus Existing Youth Funding for Greater Impact 6. Mobilize the CPS Educational Neglect Process 7. Localize the Pyramid of Need

34. Karl Bertrand, L.M.S.W., President Program Design and Development, LLC 47 Wayside Drive White Plains, NY 10607 (914) 592-1272 KBertrand@programdesign.com www.programdesign.com For more information, contact: