1. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Who wins and who loses from increasing large carnivore stocks in Sweden? or Do preferences for environmental policies/resources differ depending on gender, age, income, and geographical location? Cecilia Håkansson, Dep. of Forest Economics, SLU, Sweden Göran Bostedt, Dep. of Forest Economics, SLU, Sweden Göran Ericsson Dep. of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies

2. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Aims Identifying winners and losers (in monetary terms) of increasing the large carnivore stocks in Sweden or… investigating if preferences for a controversial environmental good differ depending on gender, age, income, and geographical location. Present a platform for future research about distributional effects of environmental polices by identifying potential underlying causes behind found differences in preferences between different sub-populations.

3. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Background -Economists have been criticized for focusing too much on efficiency, rather than on equity issues. -This is despite the fact that efficiency and equity are actually not separable. -The Economic literature about equity aspects, i.e. distributional impacts, is limited, especially when it comes to benefits of environmental goods and services. -It follows that the literature about differences in preferences (in monetary terms) for environmental policies is very limited.

4. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Preferences for increasing carnivore stocks in Sweden The empirical data comes from a large scale national mail survey in Sweden focusing on preferences concerning large carnivores. (Oversampling in areas with high densities of large carnivores.) Large carnivores are here defined as wolverine, wolf, lynx, and bear. The respondents were asked to state their overall willingness to pay (WTP) to increase the number of large carnivores in Sweden.

5. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Exploring distributional determinants of willingness-to-pay

6. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics -In accordance with results from previous studies, our results show that the mean WTP is lower in areas with a high density of large carnivore populations than in areas with small or no populations. Our results also show that this is independent of gender. Results and discussion 78SEK 117SEK 80SEK 141SEK 76SEK 94SEK

7. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics -Our analysis indicates that found differences in mean WTP between different sub-populations do not seem to depend on income, i.e. the differences in mean WTP depend on differences in preferences. - Even more, our results show that mean WTP for increasing the large carnivore stocks does not only differ depending on gender and whether the respondents live in an area with large carnivore stocks or not, but it also depends on age. -The question is why the mean WTP differ between different sub-populations? - There is probably a combination of explanations. -However, they all(?) relates to people’s preferences concerning to what extent we should co-exist with nature, use it, or preserve it, as well as how familiar people are with the good.

8. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics 92 SEK 99 SEK 68 SEK 62 SEK Co-existing with nature contra preserving the nature Results: Mean WTP is similar for older men and women, independent of if they live in an area with large carnivore stocks or not. (Older is defined as older than 45 years old, and younger is defined as younger than 45 years old.) Mean WTP is very different for younger men and women, dependent of where they live, where the mean WTP is much lower in areas with large carnivore stocks than in areas with low carnivore stocks. Possible Explanations: Older generations have a rather homogenous understanding about what it means to live in areas with large carnivores, and hence their mean WTP is similar independent of where they live. Their preferences are mainly driven by the reality of living in an area with large carnivores, which influence the mean WTP negatively. - Younger generations are more heterogeneous. In areas with little or no large carnivores the preferences are mainly driven by a will to preserve the ecosystems, which influence the mean WTP positively. Interpretation: Preferences have changed over the generations. Some results, possible explanations, and interpretations to differences in mean WTP between different sub-populations 66 SEK 184SEK 84 SEK 120SEK

9. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Men Women Predicted mean WTP depending on age, if low or no populations of large carnivores This might also explain why, in areas with low or no populations of large carnivores, the mean WTP is (much) lower for older men than for younger men. The same relationship holds for women.

10. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics 0 100 200 300 400 500 354555657585 YEAR TOTWTP Predicted TOTWTP Linear (Predicted TOTWTP) Women Predicted mean WTP depending on age, if the populations of large carnivores are high forts. Co-existing with nature contra preserving the nature Results: The results indicates that in areas with high populations of large carnivores the mean WTP is lower for older women (68 SEK) than for younger women (84 SEK). Possible explanations: Compared to older women, younger women’s preferences, even though living in an area with high densities of carnivores, are mainly driven by preferences for preserving the ecosystems. Something that influence the mean WTP positively. Interpretation: Preferences have changed over the generations.

11. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Co-existing with nature contra using it as a resource Results: In areas with high populations of large carnivores the mean WTP is higher for older (92 SEK) than for younger men (66 SEK). Possible explanations: Younger men’s mean WTP is negatively influenced by the fact that the large carnivores are competitors for game and the probability that the carnivores might hurt their sporting dogs. Older men go hunting as well. Still, older men might have a different (more positive) view than younger men about how humans and large carnivores can and/or should co-exist. Interpretation: Preferences have changed over the generations. Predicted mean WTP depending on age, if the density of large carnivore stocks is high 0 100 200 300 354555657585 YEAR WTP Predicted WTP Linear (Predicted WTP) Men

12. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Familiarity Results: Older men have a higher mean WTP than older women, independent of where they live. Younger men have a higher mean WTP (184 SEK) than younger women (120 SEK), in areas with low or no populations of large carnivores. Possible explanation: Men are traditionally more familiar with large carnivores than women, and still are. Interpretation: Preferences have NOT changed over the generations. Older than 45 years old MenWomen High density of carnivores 9268 Low or no density of carnivores9962

13. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Forest Economics Future research - It is evident that preferences for all kinds of environmental policies differ between different sub- populations. - The consequences and causes behind these preferences needs to be further investigated also in the field of environmental economics. Comments? -Results from other fields concerning different preferences, for environmental goods, between different generations and gender?