1. 1 Accessing Census Bureau Population Estimates for the United States Ryan Burson Population Division U.S. Census Bureau July 16, 2014

2. 2 Overview  What do we mean by “estimates?”  What estimates do we provide?  Why do we produce them?  How are they produced?  When are they available?  Where can you find them?  How do the estimates differ from American Community Survey estimates?

3. 3 What Do We Mean by “Estimates?” The official measures of population and housing units between censuses Based on the previous decennial census Produced using administrative records data Made for prior dates, usually 6 to 12 months earlier Monthly and annual (July 1)

4. 4 What Estimates Data do We Provide?  Postcensal (current vintage)  Historical (previous vintages)  Intercensal  Evaluation

5. 5 Specific Estimates We Provide Estimate TypeU.S.StateCountyPuerto Rico Puerto Rico Municipios Metro/Micro Statistical Areas Cities and Towns Total Resident PopulationXXXXXXX Components of Change (Births, Deaths, Net Migration) XXXX X Population Characteristics (Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin) XXXXX Monthly Population (Five Universes*) X Housing UnitsXXX * Resident, Resident Plus Armed Forces Overseas, Civilian, Civilian Institutionalized, Household

6. 6 Why Do We Produce Estimates?  Federal mandate (U.S.C. Title 13)  Data Uses –Allocation of federal funds –Controls for federal surveys Current Population Survey (CPS) American Community Survey (ACS) –Program planning for public and private services

7. 7 How Do We Produce Population Estimates?  National, state, county population –Cohort-component method P 2 = P 1 + B - D + NM where :P 1 = Population at time 1 P 2 = Population at time 2 B = Births D = Deaths NM = Net migration  Subcounty population (cities and towns) –Distributive housing unit method County population is distributed to subcounty parts based on updated estimates of housing units.

8. 8 When Are Estimates Data Available? Schedule for Vintage 2013 Estimates Release DateProduct December 30, 2013 January 23, 2014 National, state, Puerto Rico: Population totals and components of change March 27, 2014County, Puerto Rico municipio, and metropolitan/micropolitan areas: Population totals and components of change May 22, 2014City and town (incorporated place, minor civil division): Population totals National, state, and county: Housing units totals June 26, 2014National, state, county, and Puerto Rico: Population by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin

9. 9 Where Can You Find Estimates Data? factfinder2.census.gov

10. Where Can You Find Estimates Data? www.census.gov/popest

11. Vintage 2013 Estimates

14. 14 Vintage 2013 Estimates

15. 15 Vintage 2013 Estimates

20. Historical Estimates

25. 25 Intercensal Estimates A special type of historical estimates we produce once a decade. Are considered more accurate than previous postcensal estimates for the same years. Annual estimates are controlled to the beginning and ending decennial census counts for the decade.

26. 26 Intercensal Estimates

27. 27 Intercensal Estimates

28. 28 Intercensal Estimates

29. 29 Intercensal Estimates

30. 30 Intercensal Estimates

31. 31 Evaluation Estimates

32. 32 Evaluation Estimates

33. 33 Evaluation Estimates

34. 34 Evaluation Estimates

35. 35 How Do the Population Estimates Differ From American Community Survey Estimates?  American Community Survey population estimates are controlled to the official population estimates.  ACS estimates are often not as current, and do not always agree with the official estimates.  ACS estimates are 3-year or 5-year averages for smaller areas.  ACS estimates are available for subjects not included in the official estimates (i.e., other social and economic characteristics).

36. 36 Same as official estimate Official estimate = 33.6 Official estimate = 6.1%

37. 37 Web Address and Contact Information www.census.gov/popest (301) 763-2385 thomas.r.burson@census.gov