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National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Empire Pipeline, Inc.
Marcellus Shale: Changing Gas Supply Dynamics and Pipeline Infrastructure A Pipeline & Storage Perspective Jeffrey Schauger GENERAL MANAGER INTERSTATE MARKETING NATIONAL FUEL GAS SUPPLY CORPORATION
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Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, performance and capital structure, anticipated capital expenditures and completion of construction projects, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections contained herein are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that such expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements: changes in economic conditions, including economic disruptions caused by terrorist activities, acts of war or major accidents, and downturns in economic activity including national or regional recessions; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions, including the occurrence of severe weather such as hurricanes; changes in the availability and/or price of natural gas or oil and the effect of such changes on the accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments or the valuation of the Company’s natural gas and oil reserves; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, including shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations; significant changes from expectations in the Company’s actual production levels for natural gas or oil; changes in the availability and/or price of derivative financial instruments; changes in the price differentials between various types of oil; inability to obtain new customers or retain existing ones; significant changes in competitive factors affecting the Company; changes in laws and regulations to which the Company is subject, including changes in tax, environmental, safety and employment laws and regulations; governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving acquisitions, financings, rate cases (which address, among other things, allowed rates of return, rate design and retained gas), affiliate relationships, industry structure, franchise renewal, and environmental/safety requirements; unanticipated impacts of restructuring initiatives in the natural gas and electric industries; significant changes from expectations in actual capital expenditures and operating expenses and unanticipated project delays or changes in project costs or plans; the nature and projected profitability of pending and potential projects and other investments, and the ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals and permits; occurrences affecting the Company’s ability to obtain funds from operations, from borrowings under our credit lines or other credit facilities or from issuances of other short-term notes or debt or equity securities to finance needed capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company’s credit ratings; ability to successfully identify and finance acquisitions or other investments and ability to operate and integrate existing and any subsequently acquired business or properties; impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; changes in the market price of timber and the impact such changes might have on the types and quantity of timber harvested by the Company; significant changes in tax rates or policies or in rates of inflation or interest; significant changes in the Company’s relationship with its employees or contractors and the potential adverse effects if labor disputes, grievances or shortages were to occur; changes in accounting principles or the application of such principles to the Company; the cost and effects of legal and administrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; changes in actuarial assumptions and the return on assets with respect to the Company’s retirement plan and post-retirement benefit plans; increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide post-retirement benefits; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance. For a discussion of these risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements, see “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2009 and and the Company’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, The Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Basically says any forward-looking statements I might make rely on at your own peril
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National Fuel Gas Company Principal Businesses
E&P Seneca Resources Corporation National Fuel Gas Company Timber Highland Forest Resources, Inc. and NE Division of Seneca Resources Corp. Energy Mktg National Fuel Resources, Inc. Utility National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation P&S National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation & Empire Pipeline Midstream National Fuel Gas Midstream Corporation 3
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PL&S: ~3,000 Miles of Pipeline, 60,000+ hp Co-Own/Operate 4 Fields
LDC: ~725,000 Customers Served throughout Western NY and Northwestern PA Own/Operate 27 Fields; Co-Own/Operate 4 Fields Storage Capacity ~70 bcf 3,000+ miles of transmission facilities, 60,00+ hp LDC 700,000+ customers in WNY and WPA Stg – 30+/- fields bcf of marketable capcity depleted reservior 4
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Ellisburg Interconnects: Bristoria Interconnect:
Niagara CANADA Lake Ontario Lake Erie Ellisburg NY PA OH Chippawa Corning A - 5 Line Independence Millennium Tuscarora Storage TCPL Interconnects: Niagara, Chippawa Leidy Interconnects: Transco, TETCO, DTI National Fuel Gas Company NFGSC System Storages NFGSC System Pipelines Empire State Pipeline Interconnects Empire Pipeline Leidy National Fuel’s Pipeline & Storage System Ellisburg Interconnects: TGP, DTI Empire Connector Bristoria Interconnect: TETCO – M2 Corning Interconnects: Empire, Millennium Key IC’s TCPL Chiip/Nia Transoco Leidy TGP, DTI. TETCO, MPL
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FACT: North American Shale has dramatically altered the domestic gas Supply picture.
Tech advances directional drilling maximizes surface area for gas to escape formation
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Shale Gas Plays in the United States
Source: Gas Shale Plays in the Lower 48 States Map Updated March 10,2010 from EIA Website Midcontinent shales prolific – Fayetteville, Barnett, Haynesville Picture what a similar map might have looked like 10 or 15 years ago. Note general size of the Marcellus vs other plays WCB, Gulf of Mexico, Shallow drilling areas. Shale Gas Plays in the United States 7
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FACT: North American Shale has dramatically altered the domestic gas Supply picture.
Relatively low Unconventional costs vs Conventional The Key- Technological advances Shale production has grown from 3% of the U.S. Gas Supply in 2005 to 20% in early 2010 In 2009 US Local Natural gas production highest since 1973. PA production has doubled since the pre-shale days Tech advances directional drilling maximizes surface area for gas to escape formation
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Marcellus - “The Beast in the East”
Recoverable area > 95,000 sq mi Depth 5,000 ft +, Thickness 50 ft – 250 ft Potentially the largest field in the U.S. - recoverable reserves estimated in the 100’s of TCFs Low breakeven costs – maybe lowest of major U.S. shale plays Marcellus Shale play is vast – and it’s still early Estimates on reserves for both up to TCF Fayetteville northern AK and adjoining states Hayesville Ark, TX, LA Barnett texas5,000 sq miles Fayetteville also 5,000 sq miles both generated a lot of infrastructure 9
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# Wells First Delivered
Marcellus Shale Production Forecast (Based on Conservative 50 Tcf Recoverable Reserve Estimate) 7,000 3,000 6,000 2,500 5,000 2,000 4,000 MMcf/d # Wells First Delivered 1,500 3,000 1,000 1 BCF per vertical well on 40 acre spacing. cost = $1 per mcf 2.5 BCF per horizontal well on 80 acre spacing. Cost < $1 per mcf Point out where we are today on this graph Goal is not to debate overall size of the play. We all know many external factors affect it. But regardless, we’re talking about a chunk of gas supply that is legitimate. 2,000 500 1,000 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 Production Forecast Wells First Delivered Source: Black & Veatch Analysis 10
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Other Telling Indicators….
What large players are saying: “…We continue to ramp up our activities in the Marcellus…” “…accelerate sharply our development of the Marcellus.. “ “…able to utilize new drilling techniques that allows (us) to affordably reach gas supplies in the Marcellus…that previously had been too expensive to tap.’ Producers taking on firm capacity positions to ensure production flows: Range, EQT, Chesapeake, Statoil, Cabot, East Resources, Fortuna Majors and investors jumping into the Marcellus fray Pittsburgh area exploding – tightening labor market TGP 300 Line Big Players: Range, Anadarko, Cabot, Chesapeake, East, Atlas, Seneca Resources Anadarko Anschutz Atlas Energy, Inc. CNX Cabot Oil & Gas Chesapeake Energy Chief Oil & Gas Dominion Resources EOG Equitable EXCO Resources, Inc. East Resources Linn Energy Range Resources Talisman 11
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Eastern Mainline Export Points and Other Major Pipelines
HEREFORD NAPIERVILLE PHILLISBURG IROQUOIS DRACUT NIAGARA CHIPPAWA DOVER BROOKFIELD DAWN ELLISBURG RAMAPO ST. CLAIR LEIDY
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Pre-Marcellus Gas Supply Sources in North America
Source: Energy Information Administration 13
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Pre-Marcellus Gas Supply Sources in North America
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Pre-Marcellus Gas Supply Sources to the Northeast
ONTARIO Traditionally gas supply sources have come from Canada, the Rockies, and the Gulf Coast Region. NIAGARA New York LEIDY Pennsylvania
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Post Marcellus Gas Supply Sources in North America
Displacement Displacement Displacement Rockies Displacement Appalachia Displacement Displacement Midcontinent Source: Southeast/ Gulf
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Post-Marcellus Gas Supply Sources to the Northeast
ONTARIO Marcellus Shale has resulted in the traditional gas supply being displaced. NIAGARA New York LEIDY Pennsylvania
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Trends…
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Increased Producer Activity
NFGSC System Increased Producer Activity 55% increase in IC requests from 19
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Volumes Associated with IC Requests
NFGSC System Volumes Associated with IC Requests Total Volume represented in chart -1,271,350 MCFD This chart shows the cumulative expected daily volume from IC requests currently in progress 20
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Basis Differential Shift
Drivers of this: Inc supply (Marcellus) Dec supply out of Canada Inc load in Canada
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Canadian Imports In 2009 there was a 15% decrease in net imports from Canada (Source: EIA Source: EIA
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Effects of Shales on LNG Imports
When U.S. supply began to fall, the world expected an increase in LNG demand within the U.S. Markets New ships/facilities were planned and constructed LNG imports increased in 2007 but then industry conditions changed Due to Marcellus, U.S. gas production is now growing faster than ever before displacing plans for LNG imports and the use of these new facilities This is causing a global oversupply of LNG Source: Bentek/EIA
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Observations… “Pipeline Geology” Displacement
Significant gas supply being added to large long-haul pipes: TGP, TETCO, TCO, DTI, NFG Shift in flows due not only to Marcellus but effects of REX, LNG, and other shale plays The Interstate Pipeline System Downstream of Storage (Ellisburg/Leidy and Oakford) is at Capacity Key Market Segment: Power Gen Markets in NYC, Mid-Atlantic, and Ontario. Rate of growth? Overall market will grow – rate depends on economy, but unlikely to match increase in gas supply in market area.
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…And Effects of Marcellus in the Northeast
Pricing Dynamics New West to East pipeline infrastructure will increase the Western Basis and put downward pressure on Eastern Market Prices Overall flattening of basis and decreased price volatility. Flows Displacement of traditional gas supply, and reverse flow south to north Focus on Unconventional plays Reduced reliance on LNG Shifting plans related to Alaskan gas supply Infrastructure NE Markets have competitive advantage as transportation and fuel costs decrease from transporting gas a shorter distance Long haul pipelines will likely see lower utilization and decreased revenue on pipelines from the Gulf to the Northeast Infrastructure 30+ new expansion projects in the NE which total more than 12 Bcf of gathering, short and long haul transportation capacity
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Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Infrastructure.
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Effects of Marcellus Shale in the Northeast
Changing the Pipeline Infrastructure in the Northeast New Projects= Planned/Proposed 25 projects currently being constructed or operating since the start of 2009 which add 10,185 MMcf/d of capacity (this info not included in chart above) Dates Represent In Service Date Processing and Gathering Systems 2009/ new Processing and Gathering Systems now operating Under Construction and 8 planned for the future. Total Additional Capacity if all facilities are completed is 1,750 MMcf/d 34 Potential New Projects Planned through 2014 Total Increased Potential Capacity of 13,693 MMcf/d Source: Bentek 27
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2010 Pipeline Expansion Projects Map
DTI – WPA and W Va into Oakford area Spectra TEMAx/Time/Manhattan TGP – Backhaul, EQT project, NSD, Mercer 2010 Pipeline Expansion Projects Map Source: Bentek
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National Fuel Gas PL&S Infrastructure Expansion Plans
Y-M53 to Leidy Lamont Compressor Station Line N Expansion Northern Access Expansion Tioga County Extension All of these very much driven by the changing gas supply picture – Marcellus Represents over $500 million in infrastructure investment
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Shows how our system overlays the Marcellus; good lead-in to the discussion of our projects. Illustrates why we’re doing what we’re doing… Just to answer the ONE question everyone has on their mind. Although our pipeline grid is decades old, we most certainly DID know all along bout the potential of the Marcellus and we’re just now reaping the benefits
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PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES
Y-M53 DIRECT INTERCONNECTS Y-M53 Direct Interconnects Initial Capacity 100,000 Dth/d In-Service Date November 2010 Producer Commitments of 20,000 - others Pending 31 31
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EXPANSION INITIATIVES Lamont Compressor Station Phase I & II
PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION PHASE 1 & 2 LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION PHASE I & II Lamont Compressor Station Phase I & II Planned Capacity 40,000 Dth/d (I) 50,000 Dth/d (II) Planned Compression (2 units) 1,150 HP (I) 1,700 HP(II) Anticipated In-Service Date July 2010 (I) June 2011 (II) Estimated CAPEX Investment ~$6 MM ~$7 MM New 1,150 HP Compressor Station in Elk County, PA. Additional bi-directional measurement also. Puts gas into TGP 300 line from producing area in counties: Capacity: 50,000 Dth/d Delivery Point of TGP at Lamont SA’s executed fpr 1st 40,000 construction under way Expandable w/ 2nd Unit to 80,000 Dth/d + - early 2011 32 32
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EXPANSION INITIATIVES Line “N” Expansion Phase I & II
PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES Line “N” Expansion Phase I & II Planned Capacity 160,000 Dth/d (I) 150,000 Dth/d (II) Planned Compression 4,700 HP (I) 13,000 HP (II) Anticipated In-Service Date Sept 2011 (I) Nov 2012 (II) Estimated CAPEX Investment $23 MM (I) $30 MM (II) New 4,700 HP Compressor Station in Washington County, PA near I70 2 Miles of 20” Line N Replacement North of I-70 Capacity of 160,000 Dth/d Delivery Point of TETCO at Ryerson (Holbrook) Station (M2) Estimated Cost: $23 Million Involves some pipeline replacement to get away from Mining areas-approx 20 miles of 20” pipe Timeline: FERC NEPA Pre-filing October 20, 2009 Planned FERC 7(c): April 2010 Planned Construction: November 2010 Planned In-Service: November 2011 Precedent Agreements with Range Resources for 150,000 Dth/d for 11 Years LINE “N” EXPANSION PHASE I & II 33 33
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NATIONAL FUEL PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES
NORTHERN ACCESS EXPANSION Northern Access Expansion Planned Capacity 320,000 Dth/d Planned Compression- Ellisburg 12,000 HP Planned Compression- East Aurora 2,300 HP Anticipated In-Service Date Fall 2012 Estimated CAPEX Investment $60 MM Full Producer Commitment 34 34
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EXPANSION INITIATIVES Tioga County Extension Phase I & II
PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION PHASE I & II All contacted volumes - Transport back to TCPL at Chippawa, w/ access to TGP 200 line Tioga Cty production MENTION PHASE II Key Points Provides critical infrastructure to support developing Appalachian production Enhances market access to areas such as Leidy, Ellisburg, plus other NFGSC interconnects Third party access to TETCO, DTI, Empire, Millennium, Transco, TGP, and TCPL (Niagara) Readily expands as Marcellus shale and other production grows Access to all NFGSC on-system and off-system points creates diverse market access 16 miles of 24” pipe extending from Corning, NY to Tioga County, PA Provides at least 200,000 dth/d of incremental transportation capacity from the Marcellus fairway Deliveries include Millennium (Corning), TCPL (Chippawa), and other “on path points” on Empire, plus proposed new interconnect with TGP Open Season ended October 23, 2009; Negotiating PAs Phase II Project Expansion Further South to TGP 300 Line Facilities: Approximately 20 Miles of 24” Pipeline Compression in Tioga County, PA to TGP Mainline Compression in Ontario County, NY Combined Capacity of 550,000 to 600,000 Dth/d Without Looping Open Season Envisioned for 3Q FY 2010 Potential In-service 2013 Tioga County Extension Phase I & II Planned Capacity 350,000 Dth/d (I) 260,000 Dth/d (II) Anticipated In-Service Date September 2011 (I) 2012/2013 (II) Estimated CAPEX Investment $47 MM (I) $125 MM (II) 35 35
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PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES
LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION PHASE I & II NORTHERN ACCESS EXPANSION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION PHASE I & II Y-M53 DIRECT INTERCONNECTS New 1,150 HP Compressor Station in Elk County, PA. Additional bi-directional measurement also. Puts gas into TGP 300 line from producing area in counties: Capacity: 40,000 Dth/d Delivery Point of TGP at Lamont SA’s executed fpr 1st 40,000 construction under way Expandable w/ 2nd Unit to 80,000 Dth/d + - early 2011 WEST TO EAST LINE “N” EXPANSION PHASE I & II APPALACHIAN LATERAL 36 36
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Infrastructure and Transporter-related Challenges
GQ Creditworthiness Timelines Shifting Pipeline Grid Dynamics & Valuation Producer risk tolerances IC requests Varying producer risk tolerances (ie,willingness to take capacity before they know what their production numbers really are) In many cases very understandable in light of the challenges they face, such as: Drilling techniques Commodity prices Regulatory environment Water permits; disposal permits Taxes & fees Processing; pipeline quality gas Getting gas to market 37
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On the Horizon…. New supply areas will continue crowd out traditional ones “Non-firm” production eventually at risk All bets off with regard to traditional flows, basis, and commodity pricing - price and gas supply-driven changes Certain oversupplied producing areas/pipes could see price bloodletting Canadian markets will soon gain access to Marcellus supply Large need for midstream/gathering infrastructure Utilities: encouraged by proliferation of Marcellus gas supply but will adjust portfolios with caution A pretty interesting and exciting time for those of us involved in this new play…..and lots more to come 38
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