1. PATLIB 2003 21-23 May, Palais des Congrès, Liège Patent based economic indicators : What do they tell us ? Michele Cincera and Bruno van Pottelsberghe Université Libre de Bruxelles

2. OBJECTIVE Patents statistics as economic indicator: a survey.OUTLINE Pro & cons of patents data. Patents as a measure of innovative activities. Determinants of patenting activities. Patents and technological diffusion. Measuring the economic value of patents. Conclusions.

3. PRO & CONS of PATENTS DATA Advantages : –They are available over long time periods in many countries. –They contain detailed information (IPC classes, inventors,…). Drawbacks : –They differ greatly in their technical and economic significance. –Not all inventions are patented, nor all are patentable. –Other existing methods in appropriating an innovation such as industrial secrecy may be preferred. –The propensity to patent may change substantially over time and across countries not to mention among technological sectors.

4. PATENTS AS A MEASURE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES Index of inventive activity: Source: GRILICHES (1990), p. 1663.

5. PATENTS AS A MEASURE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES # of EPO high tech patent applications:

6. PATENTS AS A MEASURE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES Patenting activities of the top 50 Belgian firms (EPO and USPTO, 1980-2000)

7. PATENTS AS A MEASURE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES Top 20 Belgian firms (EPO and US applications, 1980-2000) Note:C% = cumulative share; the companies in italics are in only one of the top 20 rankings. Sources: EPO and USPTO databases; own calculations

8. PATENTS AS A MEASURE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES Technological Revealed Comparative Advantage (TRCA):

9. DETERMINANTS OF PATENTING ACTIVITIES R&D and determinants of patent outcomes: –R&D-patent relationship; extended knowledge production function

10. DETERMINANTS OF PATENTING ACTIVITIES R&D management literature: Patenting strategies

11. PATENTS AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION Technological SPACE (Jaffe 1986, 88, 89) Technological position vector of firm i: Technological proximities:

12. PATENTS AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION Example: R&D spillovers

13. Internationalisation of technology o Aspects of internationalisation: – co-invention, – co-ownership – cross-border ownership

15. Global trends of internationalisation

17. Internationalisation of technology Factors explaining cross countries differences in internationalisation: Larger countries (by GDP) are less internationalised than smaller ones; Technological intensity has negative effect on SHII and SHIA

19. Internationalisation of technology Who mates with whom? The intensity of bilateral relationships is determined by: Technological similarity; Geographical proximity; A common language; Being an EU Member, for cross border ownership only.

20. MEASURING THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PATENTS The value distribution of patents is highly skewed The indicators of value are : –Patent family size, –number of claims, –designated states, –co-applicants, inventors,… –Citations –Patent renewal data –The number of opposition

21. Looking for high patent value

22. Opposition as an indicator of value