1. U.S. Contribution to T-NAWDEX: “DOWNSTREAM” Heather Archambault (NPS), Steven Cavallo (OU), Dan Cziczo (MIT), Chris Davis (NCAR), Pat Harr (NPS), Laura Pan (NCAR), Mark Zondlo (Princeton) T-NAWDEX Workshop Karlsruhe, Germany 20 March 2013

2. “DOWNSTREAM” Dynamics and Observations of the Waveguide: North–South Transport and Rossby wave Excitation over Atlantic Midlatitudes

3. Synergy with T-NAWDEX Focused over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic Scientific foci: – Stratospheric–tropospheric exchange – Tropical, midlatitude, and polar forcing of waveguide perturbations – Predictability – Multiscale interactions

4. Waveguide forcing PV distribution “DOWNSTREAM” Science Themes Synoptic-to-hemispheric scale Rossby wave amplification, dispersion, breaking along North Atlantic waveguide, tropospheric–stratospheric exchange (water vapor) Meso-to-sub-synoptic scale Tropopause polar vortices, transitioning tropical cyclones, warm conveyor belts, diabatic Rossby vortices, predecessor rain events Microscale Clouds, aerosols, trace constituents, radiation, turbulence Impacts on medium-range predictability

5. 1. Science Questions Related to Extratropical Transition Midlatitude impact region TC–midlatitude interface region Decaying tropical cyclone core region How do sub-synoptic-scale phenomena generate waveguide perturbations? What is relative contribution of diabatic heating in frontal zones versus tropical cyclone (TC) core?

6. Is TC outflow the primary means of perturbing the waveguide? What is the detailed vertical structure of: TC outflow? merger of TC outflow and midlatitude jet? 1. Science Questions Related to Extratropical Transition Grams et al., 2013: QJRMS

7. “No radiation” minus “with radiation” In composite numerical simulated vortices, a weaker TPV occurs without radiation Formation and extrusion of tropopause polar vortices (TPV) and sensitivities to diabatic (e.g., radiation) variations: How well are these represented? How do clouds influence process? How do these coherent structures evolve as they approach the jet? What happens to the jet itself? 2. Science Questions Related to Polar Vortices Cavallo and Hakim, 2012: MWR

8. 8 Sep 2012 9 Sep 2012 10 Sep 201211 Sep 2012 Potential temperature on 2-PVU surface (0000 UTC) (ET of Leslie)

9. 3. Science Questions Related to Predictability How do multiple sources of waveguide perturbations influence predictability on synoptic to hemispheric scales? 250-hPa v’ 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 OCTOCT NOVNOV 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 120°E 180° 120°W 60°W 0° +1.0+1.5+2.0+2.5-1.5-2.0 -2.5 NASA OUTFLOW DOWNSTREAM T-NAWDEX Flooding rain

10. 4. Science Questions Related to UTLS Transport of Water and Other Constituents Figure 1 from Pan et al., 2008: BAMS (adapted from Stohl et al. 2003 : (BAMS) How are water vapor and other constituents transported into the lower stratosphere in outflow (WCB) regions associated with extratropical and tropical cyclones? What are the source regions?

11. 5. Science Questions Related to Cirrus Clouds What drives the spatial variability of ice, H 2 O, T, and w on scales of 0.2–20 km? How do water and temperature define the spatial distribution of relative humidity? How can tracer correlations be used to understand larger-scale dynamics?

12. 5. Science Questions Related to Cirrus Clouds What are the mechanisms yielding ice supersaturated regions for cirrus formation? How does cirrus formation differ as aerosol characteristics change? How do cirrus clouds affect the overall budget of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region?

13. Extratropical transition of TC Leslie 0000 UTC 10 Sep 2012 9 6 Cirrus shield extends far downstream of TC G-V Flight Range IR satellite A Candidate DOWNSTREAM Case Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause

14. A Candidate DOWNSTREAM Case Extratropical transition of TC Leslie 0000 UTC 10 Sep 2012 Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause TC Outflow Layer

15. Instrumentation and Uses W-band cloud radar (Doppler) Ka Band radar (?) VCSEL – water vapor Microwave Temperature Profiler (MTP) Dropsondes CVI (Counterflow Virtual Impactor) Fast Ozone CO Various trace species MTP? HCR? GV Cloud Radar: 15°–20° scan

16. If variation in ‘x’ is slow compared to variation in ‘y’: MTP can obtain gradients of potential temperature within “curtain” along flight track Cloud radar can obtain velocities below aircraft PV estimates with a resolution of <10 km horizontal, roughly 200 m vertical x y Approximate form, if slowly varying along the jet relative to across jet PV Estimation from MTP Data Jet Stream z

17. NRC (Canadian) Convair-580 The National Research Council (NRC) of Canada operates a twin- turboprop Convair-580 research aircraft. Operation is on a full cost-recovery basis, so full funding is required even for government-backed projects. Service ceiling: 7200 m (23,500 ft) Cruising speed at altitude: ~215 kt RangeOut-and-back: 1000 km One-way: 2000 km Aircrew: 2 people Research crew: ~12 people Home page: www.nawx.nrc.gc.ca The Convair-580 is used heavily for microphysical measurements, particularly for projects related aircraft icing and air quality Can carry a range of remote sensing equipment: W- and X-band radars (up, down, side views) and a G-band water vapour radiometer

18. Bulk cloud parametersEC Cloud Extinction Probe (CEP) Cloud particlesSPEC Cloud Particle Imager (CPI), SPEC 2D-S (10-1280um) NRC (Canadian) Convair-580 The Convair-580 flew into hurricanes Michael (2000), Karen (2000) and Isabel (2003) during extratropical transition (ET). The Isabel mission was the first to sample an ET with flight level sensors and dropsondes over land. (Above) Equipment installed during flight into Hurricane Michael (2000). (Right) Storm track and near-surface winds from dropsondes, and radar cross-section wind dropsonde winds. All panels from adapted from Abraham et al. (BAMS, 2004).

19. NRC (Canadian) Convair-580 The Convair-580 could be booked for a 2-month period (i.e. Sept-Oct 2016), but deployed only when a feature of interest is predicted. If based in St. John's, Newfoundland, the Convair could be ready for operation (i.e. ferried from Ottawa) with 3-days notice: may be more consistent with more predictable features. All previous flights into storms undergoing ET have been round-trip To extend coverage to 40 o N, 40 o W (or slightly further south) the Convair could land to refuel in the Azores; however, crew rest requirements probably mean an overnight before the return flight 40 o W Azores Range rings for Convair-580 based in St. John's, Newfoundland. Red ring is for a round-trip flight, magenta ring is for a one-way flight.

20. Summary DOWNSTREAM: Sept-Oct. 2016 Eastern U.S., Canada and Northwest Atlantic Dynamics-driven study of origin of waveguide perturbations Transport and small-scale cloud processes Effects on PV distribution Predictability associated with mesoscale features NSF-NCAR GV aircraft: unique collaborative opportunity with two G-Vs.