1. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage 1

2. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Significant Technical Issues Pre-MS A Technology Development Materiel Solution Analysis MDD Strategic Guidance Joint Concepts A Engineering Analysis Analysis of Alternatives ASR CBA ICD ISSUE POTENTIAL IMPACTS Lack of consistent technical engagement with the operational user to ensure: Awareness of potential solutions Understanding of user performance needs Opportunities for incremental capability delivery Narrow AoA scope, missed solution opportunities Acquisition cost/schedule growth due to lack of understanding of the CONOPS Program-focused analysis, when solutions will impact broad sets of systems and SoS Delivery of capability that will not integrate, or that has reduced benefit because of external system issues Lack of consistent technical engagement prior to and following the AoA Immature alternatives enter the AoA Lack of engineering on preferred solutions to prepare for MS A and TD Phase NDIA SE Division Meeting February 17, 2010 Mr. Michael Duffey Deputy Director, Development Planning Office of the Director for Systems Analysis

3. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Affordability analysis: Analysis can focus on the subsystem, system, and mission levels and is performed for the entire program life cycle. Typical products of an affordability analysis include cost-effectiveness analyses, risk analyses, and total ownership cost estimates. An affordability analysis synthesizes information from three basic areas: mission analysis, technical analysis, and cost analysis.” 3 Affordability Analysis for DARPA Programs, William M. Kroshl and Peter P. Pandolfini Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest

4. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Affordability Process: 4 Cost Analysis Risk Analysis Architecture (PBS–Tech Baseline Mission– Operational Context Performance Analysis Schedule Analysis Analyze IssuesModify Baseline Trade-Off Analysis Best Value Iterative Cycle Completed Yes No Value Framework (KPP-MOE-TPM) Missions, Scenarios, & Capabilities Needed

5. Optimize tomorrow today. TM System Cost Drivers: Project Management – Assembly System Components : H/W, S/W, IT and others 5 DevelopmentProductionO&S

6. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Project Management: Systems Engineering on a project Project Initiation and Planning Project Management and Control Quality Assurance Management Configuration Management Vendor Management Documentation 6 Systems Engineering e.g. is consumed by these activities

7. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Project Management Cost Drivers: Operating Specification Multiple Site Development Vendor Interface Complexity Project Complexity factor 7 # of Requirements Requirement Stability # of Interfaces # of Vendors # of Operational Scenarios Quantities / Schedule

8. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Project Management Cost Drivers Sensitivity: 8. Reliability. Portability. Security. Documentation. Testing. Single Location. Multiple Locations. International Locations. Quality of Communication

9. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Assembly cost Drivers Software External Integration Hardware Platform Stability Hardware Platform Availability Number of Unique Hardware Platforms System Complexity 9 Hardware External Integration Complexity Engineering Complexity Development Engineering for Structure Development Engineering for Electronics

10. Optimize tomorrow today. TM What information is available? 10 A JCIDS User Needs Joint Concepts Capabilities - Based Assessment OSD/JCS COCOM FCB Strategic Guidance Materiel Solution Analysis ICD MDD Technology Opportunities & Resources System Capability Required – Speed, Range, Weight? Historical analogues system costs? Organizational/Contractor performance data?

11. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Capability based estimation 11 1. Historical Data 2. Input for analysis 3. Best fit analysis

12. Optimize tomorrow today. TM SoS consideration 12 Cost of SoS Program Management and Requirements Cost for interlinking and interfacing multiple constituent systems Fraction or whole of constituent system cost

13. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Cont.. SoS consideration 13 Cost for development, production and maintenance of Integration equipment

14. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Risk Methodology: 14

15. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Cost Uncertainty 15 Variance Analysis on Regression

16. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Performance Analysis: 16

17. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Schedule Analysis: Estimated schedule : derived from effort estimates Schedule compression and expansion effects Schedule Uncertainty Acceptable levels of uncertainty (cost, schedule and cost & schedule) at different phases 17

18. Optimize tomorrow today. TM What MDA needs for decision making? 18

19. Optimize tomorrow today. TM What is expected from Systems Engineering on Cost and Affordability at Development Planning? 19 Trade studies? Material trades Design trades Country of manufacturing

20. Optimize tomorrow today. TM Value Proposition: Cost is only one side of coin, other side is benefits Benefits consideration to include KPPs 20